From 1h ago

Bank of England raises UK interest rates… to 14-year high of 2.25%

Newsflash: The Bank of England has raised UK interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.25% in an attempt to combat soaring inflation amid the cost of living crisis.

That’s the seventh consecutive increase in Bank Rate in a row, but a smaller rise than many City investors had expected.

Today’s rate rise — the second 50bp increase in a row – shows that the Bank is trying to prevent inflation becoming persistently embedded, despite concerns over the economy.

The decision by the Bank’s monetary policy committee takes rates to the highest level since 2008.

Updated at 12.17 BST

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The money markets are anticipating that UK Bank Rate will rise to nearly 5% by next summer, as the Bank of England continues to fight inflation.

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Such further, rapid tightening would hit economy activity, as Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, explains:

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“Hiking rates when the economy is heading into recession and inflation close to a peak testifies to the Bank’s concern that inflation has become embedded in the system.

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“The Bank is unlikely to stop raising rates until price pressures and labour shortages have eased significantly.

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“We expect rates to double by the middle of next year, causing a significant tightening of credit conditions, and adding to the downward momentum in the economy.”

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…via @samueltombs – after that rate decision financial markets signalling slightly slower rate of interest hikes from Bank of England this year – but market still sees them getting to around 4.8% by next May/June pic.twitter.com/mrhlNIPLeP

&mdash; Ben Chu (@BenChu_) September 22, 2022

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The Bank of England has also warned that the government’s energy price freeze will push up inflation in the medium-term.

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With energy bills rising less sharply, households will have more money to spend on other goods and services (although some people are already having to skip meals due to rising bills)

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The Monetary Policy Committee says:

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While the Guarantee reduces inflation in the near term, it also means that household spending is likely to be less weak than projected in the August Report over the first two years of the forecast period.

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All else equal, and relative to that forecast, this would add to inflationary pressures in the medium term.

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That’s a signal that monetary policy may need to be tightened more aggressively in future – meaning higher interest rates for longer.

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This is the important bit. pic.twitter.com/DHmAoHPMkA

&mdash; Duncan Weldon (@DuncanWeldon) September 22, 2022

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The UK is already in recession, the Bank of England fears, partly due to the bank holiday to mark the Queen’s funeral.

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Bank staff have downgraded their growth forecasts, and now predict GDP will shrink by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year.

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That would follow the 0.1% drop recorded in April-June – making it the second quarterly contraction in a row.

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A month ago, the Bank had predicted the economy would grow by 0.4% in July-September.

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But weaker-than-expected growth of just 0.2% in July, and Monday’s bank holiday for the state funeral, have led it to slash its forecasts.

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The minutes of this week’s meeting say:

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Bank staff now expected GDP to fall by 0.1% in Q3, below the August Report projection of 0.4% growth, and a second successive quarterly decline.

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That fall would also, in part, reflect the smaller-than-expected bounce back in growth following the bank holiday in Q2 and the expected impact from the additional bank holiday in September for the Queen’s state funeral.

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NEW

Bank of England raises interest rates again by 0.5% to 2.25%, a 14 year high.

While the energy plan now means it forecasts inflation will peak next month at 11%, Bank now assumes the UK is already in recession from April, with GDP falling this quarter as well as last.

&mdash; Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) September 22, 2022

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The Bank has lowered its forecast for inflation, due to the energy price freeze.

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They now predict that CPI inflation is likely to peak in October at just under 11% – lower than the peak of 13% forecast last month, before the two-year cap on bills was announced.

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The minutes of the meeting warn, though,t hat we could suffer double-digit inflation for months:

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Nevertheless, energy bills will still go up and, combined with the indirect effects of higher energy costs, inflation is expected to remain above 10% over the following few months, before starting to fall back.

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The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee was split, badly, over today’s interest rate decsion.

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Five members – governor Andrew Bailey, deputy governors Ben Broadbent and Jon Cunliffe, chief economist Huw Pill, and external member Silvana Tenreyro – voted to lift rates by half a percent, to 2.25%

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Three – external members Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann, plus deputy governor Dave Ramsden – pushed for a larger, 75 basis point hike (which would have been the biggest since 1989).

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And the MPC’s newest member, Swati Dhingra, voted to only raise rates by 0.25%.

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This lack of unanimity is not a good look for the Bank.

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The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5-4 to increase #BankRate to 2.25%. https://t.co/0JjcPkmW01 pic.twitter.com/k2Ey9DhtbO

&mdash; Bank of England (@bankofengland) September 22, 2022

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Newsflash: The Bank of England has raised UK interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.25% in an attempt to combat soaring inflation amid the cost of living crisis.

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That’s the seventh consecutive increase in Bank Rate in a row, but a smaller rise than many City investors had expected.

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Today’s rate rise — the second 50bp increase in a row – shows that the Bank is trying to prevent inflation becoming persistently embedded, despite concerns over the economy.

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The decision by the Bank’s monetary policy committee takes rates to the highest level since 2008.

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Tension is mounting in the City, as investors brace for the Bank of England’s interest rate announcement at noon.

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We’re expecting a hefty increase in borrowing costs – at least another half-point, as the central bank tries to cool inflation despite fears the UK is heading towards recession.

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Many traders predict the BoE could hike rates by three-quarters of a percent. That would take Bank rate to 2.5%, from 1.75% today, the highest since the start of the financial crisis.

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That would be the biggest rate rise since 1989 – and with inflation at 9.9% in August, the Monetary Policy Committee may choose to tighten policy aggressively. Especially as the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by another 75bp last night, hitting the pound to 37-year lows today.

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The decision has been delayed by a week due to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral.

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The Communications Workers Union have accused Royal Mail of an ‘all out attack’ on the union, after it proposed ending some agreements with workers:

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Our negotiators are currently in the room with Royal Mail Group and this happens. We need the public to see this so please share as much as you can #StandByYourPost pic.twitter.com/QhyTJTFkX1

&mdash; The CWU (@CWUnews) September 22, 2022

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The CWU also urges members to take part in upcoming strike action – which is scheduled for 30 September and 1 October.

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An earlier strike scheduled for 9th September was cancelled following the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

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Royal Mail has announced it wants to tear up up some of its existing workplace agreements and policies, as the industrial dispute at the postal operator continues.

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In a statement to the stock market, Royal Mail says it hasn’t reached agreement with the Communication Workers Union (CWU), after five months of talks over pay and conditions.

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Royal Mail says it is now taking two steps to ‘break the impasse’, arguing that it needs to move fast to stem losses of £1m per day.

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It has told CWU that it “wants to modernise the ways of working with them”, by reviewing or ending various agreements and policies.

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It says:

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As part of this, Royal Mail will review or serve notice on a number of historic agreements and policies which are currently being used by the CWU to frustrate transformation, and intends to move to a more modern industrial relations framework designed to make the business more agile, and able to compete more effectively.

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The company says that ending these ‘historic agreements and policies’ will let it speed up decisions about overtime and leave, test technology more quickly, address ‘persistent short-term absense” and cut costs.

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Royal Mail has also proposed that talks with the union should be taken to Acas (the Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service), in the hope of ending the current industrial action.

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When Royal Mail was privatised nine years ago, it agreed an “Agenda for Growth” which included key protections for staff.

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That includes not taking on new staff on inferior terms to existing staff, no zero hours contracts, avoiding compulsary redundancies and temporary contracts, and not outsourcing parts of the business.

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Last month, 115,000 Royal Mail workers went on strike in the year’s biggest industrial action so far.

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Royal Mail workers have been offered a 2% pay rise, backdated to April, and further benefits equivalent to a 3.5% increase if they agree to changes in working practices to support the growth of its parcels business, according to the company.

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Staff argue they should receive a pay increase in line with inflation with no strings attached.

","elementId":"836e5ff1-2199-4bc8-a399-b94eb8705287"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/26/why-the-strike-at-royal-mail-is-no-cookie-cutter-pay-row","text":"‘We have no choice’: why the strike at Royal Mail is no cookie-cutter pay row","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"d271d488-8021-4481-9243-1c3447f24b76"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663836339000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"09.45 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663838707000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"10.25 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663838030000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"10.13 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"10.13","title":"Royal Mail wants to end historic agreements with staff, and head to ACAS","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632c1eb08f08f4c4bf5d7dac","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Japan intervened in the currency market on Thursday for the first time since 1998 to shore up the battered yen.

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Tokyo acted after Japan’s central bank left interest rates at ultra-low levels (see earlier post).

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Japan's FX intervention is its first since 1998, and came after the yen weakened past 145 per dollar. Is that the new line in the sand?

&mdash; Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 22, 2022

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Vice finance minister for international affairs Masato Kanda told reporters,

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“We have taken decisive action (in the exchange market),”

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This has revived the yen – it’s now nearly 2% higher against the dollar, after dropping 1% lower to a 24-year low.

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#Japan's intervention in the currency market: Japan's intervention in the currency market is only a stopgap measure, which is not enough to bring long-term relief to the weakening of the yen.#Dollar #gold #xauusd pic.twitter.com/GQR746KHXx

&mdash; Aixi (@Aixi___xauusd) September 22, 2022

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Business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg could be in line for a windfall as Somerset Capital, the boutique fund manager he co-founded, explores a possible sale.

","elementId":"a87d9fef-b336-4b08-bf4c-68f2dff85c83"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

According to the Financial Times, which got the story, Rees-Mogg’s stake in Somerset is in the low to mid teens – he resigned from an advisory role at Somerset in 2019 when he joined the cabinet.

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The FT says:

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\n

Three people familiar with the situation said talks to sell the firm, which manages about $5bn, were being held as chief executive Dominic Johnson prepares to step down ahead of a potential move into politics.

\n

Johnson, a former Conservative party vice-chair who co-founded Somerset with Rees-Mogg 15 years ago, will be replaced by current chief operating officer Robert Diggle, according to two people familiar with the matter.

\n

Several options are on the table, including a management buyout or a merger with another asset manager, these people said.

\n

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Somerset Capital is up for sale. A deal would provide a windfall to business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg. https://t.co/G7ZYbBBiB7 Scoop by @AdrienneKlasa @HarrietAgnew and me

&mdash; Emma Dunkley (@EmDunks) September 22, 2022

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It’s not clear how much Rees-Mogg’s stake would be worth today.

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Back in 2019, Somerset was valued at up to £100m during negotiations to sell the company (meaning the now business secretary could have received £15m), but those talks collapsed.

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The current deal is being negotiated at a fraction of the price Somerset was valued at three years ago, the FT says. More here.

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Britain’s short-term borrowing costs have hit their highest level since autumn 2008.

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The yield on two-year gilts has risen to 3.4%, amid a wider sell-off in government bonds as traders anticipate higher interest rates from hawkish central bankers.

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[yields rise when prices fall, and show the rate of return for holding the debt].

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Stock markets have opened sharply lower across Europe, following losses in Asia, after last night’s hawkish interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve rattled Wall Street.

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In London, the FTSE 100 index has dropped 1%, or 71 points, to a three-week low of 7168 points.

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Almost every share on the blue-chip index is lower, with investment companies, property firms and hotel groups among the fallers.

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Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC have both tumbled around 1.7%.

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Fed chair Powell’s warning that there wasn’t a painless way to bring down inflation has heightened anxiety that the US will see weaker growth and higher unemployment, hurting the global economy too.

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Carl Riccadonna, US Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, says:

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\n

The Fed announced a unanimous 75bp hike, coupled with a more hawkish dot plot and Jackson Hole-like press conference in which Chair Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability.

\n

Powell specifically stated: “Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone.”

\n

He concluded by adamantly assuring that regardless of the exact trajectory of interest rates, the Fed is determined to do “enough to restore price stability.”

\n

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Apertura mercados europeos:

🇩🇪 DAX 🔻 -1,18%

🇪🇺 EuroStoxx 🔻 -1,78%

🇬🇧 FTSE 🔻 -0,99%

🇫🇷 CAC 🔻 -1,62%

🇮🇹 FTSE MIB 🔻 -1,40%https://t.co/S6BlqjZDk3

&mdash; Radio Intereconomía (@rintereconomia) September 22, 2022

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South Korea’s KOSPI has dropped 1%, while Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX 200 has lost 1.5%.

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The Bank of England would hit millions of households more than £3bn in extra mortgage costs if it raises interest rates by 75 basis points (three-quarters of a percent) today.

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Analysts say the biggest rate hike for more than three decades – which could come at noon – would mean an extra £3.1bn of interest payments for borrowers on standard variable rate and tracker mortgages.

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Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:

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\n

“For anyone who is already struggling with runaway price rises, the extra cost of the mortgage could be the final straw.”

\n

","elementId":"f2944816-cd0d-4e14-aad4-59d8aa872442"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The investment firm said three-quarters of mortgage holders are on fixed rates, meaning they would not see an immediate impact, but that more than 2 million borrowers are on standard variable rates or trackers.

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For the average UK property, with a 75% loan-to-value-mortgage, an increase of 0.75 percentage points would mean a £78 jump in monthly interest payments, according to estimates by TotallyMoney.

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Fixed-rate deals are due to expire for as many as 3.2 million borrowers within the next two years.

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Here’s the full story:

","elementId":"ab8aee7f-4836-4871-9960-6ace21e80496"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/21/bank-of-england-may-tackle-inflation-with-major-interest-rate-hike","text":"UK households face £3bn hit if Bank goes ahead with 0.75-points rate rise","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"256c3352-85ad-41c5-8169-937947367e65"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663830096000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"08.01 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663830486000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.08 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663830486000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"08.08 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"08.08","title":"UK households face £3bn hit if Bank goes ahead with 0.75-points rate rise","contributors":[{"name":"Richard Partington","imageUrl":"https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/12/27/Richard-Partington.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=7a0cd4e01f7289ba75909509b7b8da7c","largeImageUrl":"https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/12/27/Richard_Partington,_R.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=bb38e72cdfabfe7563b4036c49593334"}],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632c065d8f089a550b8aa3a5","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Concerns that chancellor Kwasi Kwargeng could put the UK public finances on an “unsustainable path” in his mini-Budget on Friday won’t help the pound either.

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Last night, the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the government’s planned sweeping tax cuts, at a time of weak economic growth, could leave a £60bn per year hole in the public finances.

","elementId":"a5ebf8f4-5f3d-4e4c-9e03-b0c5310277c3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The IFS, in a joint report with Citi, fears that Liz Truss’s government is “choosing to ramp up borrowing just as it becomes more expensive to do so, in a gamble on growth that may not pay off.”

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Even once the substantial Energy Price Guarantee has expired in October 2024, borrowing could still run at about £100 billion a year in the mid-2020s.

This is more than £60 billion a year higher than the @OBR_uk forecast in March.

[6/13] pic.twitter.com/iZNk5dKQxw

&mdash; Institute for Fiscal Studies (@TheIFS) September 21, 2022

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1572632518570004480","id":"1572632518570004480","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"09ec2637-0b27-414b-818d-a8a66759e163"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

My colleague Phillip Inman explains:

","elementId":"695a634e-3f7a-4765-a4d1-dee541d9f8d4"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Fuelling concerns that the UK’s precarious financial position will spark a run on the pound, the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, is expected to reverse an increase in national insurance payments and cut corporation tax at a cost to the Treasury of £30bn.

","elementId":"bb04176e-3005-4d41-983d-cc5c53315fbd"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Kwarteng, who will announce a review of his fiscal rules to allow the government to borrow more, is also expected to give away billions of pounds by cutting stamp duty on house purchases and confirm a multibillion-pound rise in the defence budget to support the war in Ukraine and boost growth

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These measures will be in addition to a freeze on energy prices for consumers and businesses that could cost more than £150bn over two years.

","elementId":"868c097d-28bf-47f0-b972-20a433b232e3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The IFS report said:

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\n

“Recent rapid increases in the cost of debt interest highlight the risks of substantially and permanently increasing borrowing and putting debt on an ever-increasing path.”

\n

“There is no miracle cure, and setting plans underpinned by the idea that headline tax cuts will deliver a sustained boost to growth is a gamble, at best.”

\n

","elementId":"f99a4e13-5e3b-40f0-9ebc-529e4d91cc2f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Persistent current budget deficits and rising debt as a share of national income would mean that the two main fiscal targets legislated only in January would be missed.

Even once the Energy Price Guarantee has expired, debt would be left on an ever-increasing path.
[9/13] pic.twitter.com/UuSf6BpXMU

&mdash; Institute for Fiscal Studies (@TheIFS) September 21, 2022

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1572632526862024704","id":"1572632526862024704","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"f9982118-981d-4b50-96e6-2d356a2c7f3e"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663829597000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.53 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663830058000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.00 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663830058000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"08.00 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"08.00","title":"Mini-Budget risks setting UK on ‘unsustainable path’","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632bf52d8f08f4c4bf5d7cad","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

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A plethora of problems have sent sterling sliding to a new 37-year low against the US dollar, ahead of a crunch Bank of England interest rate decision.

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The pound has dropped to $1.123 this morning, the lowest since 1985, extending its recent slump – it’s now down almost 17% so far this year.

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It lost more ground against the rampant dollar after America’s Federal Reserve delivered its third hefty interest rate rise in a row last night, lifting rates by another 75 basis points (three-quarters of a percent).

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Anxiety about Vladimir Putin’s threat of nuclear retaliation against the West are hitting the markets.

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UK assets are also being weighed down by concerns over Liz Truss’s push for unfunded tax cuts and spending pledges such as yesterday’s energy price cap for non-domestic users, which will add to borrowing.

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Yesterday’s August public finances, showing the UK borrowed almost twice as much as expected, has added to the pressure.

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Cost to taxpayer of Truss’s £100bn energy package has escaped scrutiny – but could that be harmful in the long run? https://t.co/1QFuvhivhp

&mdash; Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) September 21, 2022

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Fed chair Jerome Powell rattled investors last night by insisting, again, that his central bank would keep tightening rates to push down inflation, and wouldn’t rule out a recession.

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Powell warned:

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We have always understood that restoring price stability while achieving a relatively modest increase in unemployment and a soft landing would be very challenging.

\n

And we don’t know. No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be.”

\n

","elementId":"c250646e-53fa-4871-8f63-a7b9da842295"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/21/fed-raises-interest-rates-third-increase-in-row","text":"Fed raises interest rate by 0.75 percentage points as US seeks to rein in inflation","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"e18a37e7-2414-4cef-8025-57d8ed159701"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

This drove investors into the dollar, which has hit two-decade highs against the euro and the yen this morning too.

","elementId":"6280ddd2-d8f7-4f47-ad2f-b3fec0a3020c"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

*Sterling Falls To 37-Year Low Of $1.1225

*Euro Falls To Two-Decade Low Of $0.9807

&mdash; *seven (@sevenloI) September 22, 2022

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/sevenloI/status/1572754955965972481","id":"1572754955965972481","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"616bf61c-3d06-441d-a8e9-8d1e78c0b835"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

But will the Bank of England deliver a hawkish rate hike too?

","elementId":"f44c8a0b-22b3-41cc-bf7c-b58a0b105543"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The money markets say there’s roughly an 90% chance that the BoE will raise Bank Rate by 75 basis points at noon today, to 2.5%, as it tried to tame inflation.

","elementId":"f0a501c6-aec0-4f88-a6a7-bdf5dd61f84b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

That would be its biggest raise increase since 1989, and take borrowing costs to their highest levels since late 2008.

","elementId":"65eeac58-624c-48a7-9b98-25c67202dfa3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

But some economists think the Bank might ‘only’ raise rates by another half a percent, repeating last month’s move (which was the biggest rise since 1995).

","elementId":"1e288544-3a02-4706-981f-b137750d3278"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Policymakers may want to see the impact of the government’s energy bill freeze, which is likely to prevent inflation soaring as much as feared in the short term – while also adding to price pressure further ahead.

","elementId":"00200f3a-f6de-46fe-a458-bd45893f9177"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The Bank could also announce the start of ‘quantitative tightening’, cutting back its holding of UK government debt bought during the financial crisis, and the pandemic.

","elementId":"b2b1d0b5-18c4-444c-97f1-1338b049e809"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg, suggests this might lead the Bank towards a half-point rate rise:

","elementId":"782cb7e3-ad9a-434b-94c8-3f1da5f74c71"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

While 75bp is far from inconceivable, 50bp remains more likely, in our view. Remember, in addition to raising rates, the BoE looks set to announce the start of active selling gilts as part of its quantitative tightening policy.

\n

As financial conditions are already tightening as benchmark rates edge ever higher, we believe the BoE will wait to see the impact of active QT before deciding on whether to steepen the trajectory of rate hikes.

\n

","elementId":"8590ba87-5408-47e9-ab9c-6b445df9a4c1"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

A smaller hike could further weaken the pound. And either way, higher borrowing costs will add to the burden on consumers amid the cost of living squeeze.

","elementId":"1a1e7ffb-1d6c-433b-bd30-ccfa24dc4c42"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

It’s a busy day for monetary policy. Switzerland and Norway’s central banks are both setting interest rate today – with the Swiss National Bank expected to raise rates by 75bp, out of negative territory.

","elementId":"3a03d5aa-4dd5-4a89-ba57-86ed3515aaf5"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement","html":"

The agenda

","elementId":"a270c974-ec05-4afd-9272-0e3b31ca1f7d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

    \n

  • 8.30am BST: Swiss National Bank interest rate decision

  • \n

  • 9am BST: Norway’s Norges Bank interest rate decision

  • \n

  • 9.30am BST: ONS’s economic activity and business insights data on UK economy

  • \n

  • 12pm BST: Bank of England interest rate decision

  • \n

  • 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims

  • \n

  • 2.15pm BST: Treasury Committee to scrutinise yesterday’s energy price cap announcement and look ahead to mini-budget

  • \n

  • 3pm BST: Eurozone consumer confidence flash estimate for September

  • \n

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Key events

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The money markets are anticipating that UK Bank Rate will rise to nearly 5% by next summer, as the Bank of England continues to fight inflation.

","elementId":"54d468c5-e633-4f9f-91c3-5de202f8cdf6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Such further, rapid tightening would hit economy activity, as Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, explains:

","elementId":"44f30550-ebec-4fe2-bcb2-789fecc4afba"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“Hiking rates when the economy is heading into recession and inflation close to a peak testifies to the Bank’s concern that inflation has become embedded in the system.

\n

“The Bank is unlikely to stop raising rates until price pressures and labour shortages have eased significantly.

\n

“We expect rates to double by the middle of next year, causing a significant tightening of credit conditions, and adding to the downward momentum in the economy.”

\n

","elementId":"bb1a6aa0-bf81-42d5-acea-9ffb88dff18d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

…via @samueltombs – after that rate decision financial markets signalling slightly slower rate of interest hikes from Bank of England this year – but market still sees them getting to around 4.8% by next May/June pic.twitter.com/mrhlNIPLeP

&mdash; Ben Chu (@BenChu_) September 22, 2022

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The Bank of England has also warned that the government’s energy price freeze will push up inflation in the medium-term.

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With energy bills rising less sharply, households will have more money to spend on other goods and services (although some people are already having to skip meals due to rising bills)

","elementId":"3fdcb067-85e2-411a-b0a7-b74cabc8d640"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The Monetary Policy Committee says:

","elementId":"0623e765-e024-4722-bd33-5fa5ddf194d8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

While the Guarantee reduces inflation in the near term, it also means that household spending is likely to be less weak than projected in the August Report over the first two years of the forecast period.

\n

All else equal, and relative to that forecast, this would add to inflationary pressures in the medium term.

\n

","elementId":"4a38f4c1-c74f-4e9b-a6f1-eef2e965edca"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

That’s a signal that monetary policy may need to be tightened more aggressively in future – meaning higher interest rates for longer.

","elementId":"ede6af5c-0a88-4085-a89b-20c477a1f17e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

This is the important bit. pic.twitter.com/DHmAoHPMkA

&mdash; Duncan Weldon (@DuncanWeldon) September 22, 2022

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The UK is already in recession, the Bank of England fears, partly due to the bank holiday to mark the Queen’s funeral.

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Bank staff have downgraded their growth forecasts, and now predict GDP will shrink by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year.

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That would follow the 0.1% drop recorded in April-June – making it the second quarterly contraction in a row.

","elementId":"3705e486-d473-4291-bb71-63403020a23b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

A month ago, the Bank had predicted the economy would grow by 0.4% in July-September.

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But weaker-than-expected growth of just 0.2% in July, and Monday’s bank holiday for the state funeral, have led it to slash its forecasts.

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The minutes of this week’s meeting say:

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\n

Bank staff now expected GDP to fall by 0.1% in Q3, below the August Report projection of 0.4% growth, and a second successive quarterly decline.

\n

That fall would also, in part, reflect the smaller-than-expected bounce back in growth following the bank holiday in Q2 and the expected impact from the additional bank holiday in September for the Queen’s state funeral.

\n

","elementId":"011d78a6-f823-44d6-86e7-a7ca0d3a6a4d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

NEW

Bank of England raises interest rates again by 0.5% to 2.25%, a 14 year high.

While the energy plan now means it forecasts inflation will peak next month at 11%, Bank now assumes the UK is already in recession from April, with GDP falling this quarter as well as last.

&mdash; Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) September 22, 2022

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The Bank has lowered its forecast for inflation, due to the energy price freeze.

","elementId":"aef05ee2-9c71-4477-b77a-54271977138c"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

They now predict that CPI inflation is likely to peak in October at just under 11% – lower than the peak of 13% forecast last month, before the two-year cap on bills was announced.

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The minutes of the meeting warn, though,t hat we could suffer double-digit inflation for months:

","elementId":"74f1ca30-1012-4fb6-89b3-d0c1dfea7077"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

Nevertheless, energy bills will still go up and, combined with the indirect effects of higher energy costs, inflation is expected to remain above 10% over the following few months, before starting to fall back.

\n

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The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee was split, badly, over today’s interest rate decsion.

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Five members – governor Andrew Bailey, deputy governors Ben Broadbent and Jon Cunliffe, chief economist Huw Pill, and external member Silvana Tenreyro – voted to lift rates by half a percent, to 2.25%

","elementId":"f848be90-43d4-4a6f-8c59-f0ce3c384c84"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Three – external members Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann, plus deputy governor Dave Ramsden – pushed for a larger, 75 basis point hike (which would have been the biggest since 1989).

","elementId":"4ec892be-2835-4b5e-a666-d82324f7b013"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

And the MPC’s newest member, Swati Dhingra, voted to only raise rates by 0.25%.

","elementId":"e792ecbf-b1b5-4a32-baa2-40c49ed96623"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

This lack of unanimity is not a good look for the Bank.

","elementId":"baa8369e-b750-4f26-bbd1-648559b53ef6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5-4 to increase #BankRate to 2.25%. https://t.co/0JjcPkmW01 pic.twitter.com/k2Ey9DhtbO

&mdash; Bank of England (@bankofengland) September 22, 2022

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Newsflash: The Bank of England has raised UK interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.25% in an attempt to combat soaring inflation amid the cost of living crisis.

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That’s the seventh consecutive increase in Bank Rate in a row, but a smaller rise than many City investors had expected.

","elementId":"580e67ac-1179-4259-997e-f74b580b15ce"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Today’s rate rise — the second 50bp increase in a row – shows that the Bank is trying to prevent inflation becoming persistently embedded, despite concerns over the economy.

","elementId":"9a9e6793-b054-4457-bb10-0a778a9b2552"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The decision by the Bank’s monetary policy committee takes rates to the highest level since 2008.

","elementId":"2f2751fb-8143-41c8-8f00-02e682e6b823"}],"attributes":{"pinned":true,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663843172000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"11.39 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663845449000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"12.17 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663844500000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"12.01 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"12.01","title":"Bank of England raises UK interest rates… to 14-year high of 2.25%","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632c37388f089a550b8aa562","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Tension is mounting in the City, as investors brace for the Bank of England’s interest rate announcement at noon.

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We’re expecting a hefty increase in borrowing costs – at least another half-point, as the central bank tries to cool inflation despite fears the UK is heading towards recession.

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Many traders predict the BoE could hike rates by three-quarters of a percent. That would take Bank rate to 2.5%, from 1.75% today, the highest since the start of the financial crisis.

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That would be the biggest rate rise since 1989 – and with inflation at 9.9% in August, the Monetary Policy Committee may choose to tighten policy aggressively. Especially as the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by another 75bp last night, hitting the pound to 37-year lows today.

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The decision has been delayed by a week due to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral.

","elementId":"a42215a1-4747-478d-8365-626368532fba"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663842104000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"11.21 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663843101000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"11.38 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663842907000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"11.35 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"11.35","title":"City braces for Bank of England rate decision","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632c20df8f08f4c4bf5d7dc4","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The Communications Workers Union have accused Royal Mail of an ‘all out attack’ on the union, after it proposed ending some agreements with workers:

","elementId":"ea3bdba0-b7b1-4c7a-993e-4db3cc5d586b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Our negotiators are currently in the room with Royal Mail Group and this happens. We need the public to see this so please share as much as you can #StandByYourPost pic.twitter.com/QhyTJTFkX1

&mdash; The CWU (@CWUnews) September 22, 2022

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The CWU also urges members to take part in upcoming strike action – which is scheduled for 30 September and 1 October.

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An earlier strike scheduled for 9th September was cancelled following the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

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Royal Mail has announced it wants to tear up up some of its existing workplace agreements and policies, as the industrial dispute at the postal operator continues.

","elementId":"2d385200-1aec-4a57-be59-0705d0fa0d11"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

In a statement to the stock market, Royal Mail says it hasn’t reached agreement with the Communication Workers Union (CWU), after five months of talks over pay and conditions.

","elementId":"f276bc6c-dc97-489b-a76c-34f8b196b6e0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Royal Mail says it is now taking two steps to ‘break the impasse’, arguing that it needs to move fast to stem losses of £1m per day.

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It has told CWU that it “wants to modernise the ways of working with them”, by reviewing or ending various agreements and policies.

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It says:

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\n

As part of this, Royal Mail will review or serve notice on a number of historic agreements and policies which are currently being used by the CWU to frustrate transformation, and intends to move to a more modern industrial relations framework designed to make the business more agile, and able to compete more effectively.

\n

","elementId":"099bcdbb-387a-44b7-9073-a7810a0bc945"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The company says that ending these ‘historic agreements and policies’ will let it speed up decisions about overtime and leave, test technology more quickly, address ‘persistent short-term absense” and cut costs.

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Royal Mail has also proposed that talks with the union should be taken to Acas (the Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service), in the hope of ending the current industrial action.

","elementId":"c2c24b2f-0449-486f-8f5e-4995985d440c"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

When Royal Mail was privatised nine years ago, it agreed an “Agenda for Growth” which included key protections for staff.

","elementId":"d97a74f8-79bf-4845-be89-eba2d8447bb0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

That includes not taking on new staff on inferior terms to existing staff, no zero hours contracts, avoiding compulsary redundancies and temporary contracts, and not outsourcing parts of the business.

","elementId":"26cf016e-5eb6-4aec-9dba-fa5afa9b2836"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Last month, 115,000 Royal Mail workers went on strike in the year’s biggest industrial action so far.

","elementId":"cabb7d76-a740-4324-a2a5-eca25d000bd6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Royal Mail workers have been offered a 2% pay rise, backdated to April, and further benefits equivalent to a 3.5% increase if they agree to changes in working practices to support the growth of its parcels business, according to the company.

","elementId":"28ff86f1-8e93-42cf-8744-04a1db9cb6f9"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Staff argue they should receive a pay increase in line with inflation with no strings attached.

","elementId":"836e5ff1-2199-4bc8-a399-b94eb8705287"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/26/why-the-strike-at-royal-mail-is-no-cookie-cutter-pay-row","text":"‘We have no choice’: why the strike at Royal Mail is no cookie-cutter pay row","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"d271d488-8021-4481-9243-1c3447f24b76"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663836339000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"09.45 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663838707000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"10.25 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663838030000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"10.13 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"10.13","title":"Royal Mail wants to end historic agreements with staff, and head to ACAS","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632c1eb08f08f4c4bf5d7dac","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Japan intervened in the currency market on Thursday for the first time since 1998 to shore up the battered yen.

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Tokyo acted after Japan’s central bank left interest rates at ultra-low levels (see earlier post).

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Japan's FX intervention is its first since 1998, and came after the yen weakened past 145 per dollar. Is that the new line in the sand?

&mdash; Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 22, 2022

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1572867383647424513","id":"1572867383647424513","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"261c7144-94e3-40a7-a125-6dfe3db9f572"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Vice finance minister for international affairs Masato Kanda told reporters,

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\n

“We have taken decisive action (in the exchange market),”

\n

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This has revived the yen – it’s now nearly 2% higher against the dollar, after dropping 1% lower to a 24-year low.

","elementId":"0d686b03-2e32-40be-b680-f8d9ce432a0c"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

#Japan's intervention in the currency market: Japan's intervention in the currency market is only a stopgap measure, which is not enough to bring long-term relief to the weakening of the yen.#Dollar #gold #xauusd pic.twitter.com/GQR746KHXx

&mdash; Aixi (@Aixi___xauusd) September 22, 2022

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/Aixi___xauusd/status/1572867379776065536","id":"1572867379776065536","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"8af71a72-ee06-4126-9483-1c62205d388a"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663835824000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"09.37 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663836474000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"09.47 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663836140000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"09.42 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"09.42","title":"Japan intervenes to prop up the yen","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632c1a438f08f4c4bf5d7d67","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement","media":{"allImages":[{"index":0,"fields":{"height":"1796","width":"2992"},"mediaType":"Image","mimeType":"image/jpeg","url":"https://media.guim.co.uk/b8dd9e5baf5d53865775d012c029d97237e880ab/0_0_2992_1796/2992.jpg"},{"index":1,"fields":{"isMaster":"true","height":"1796","width":"2992"},"mediaType":"Image","mimeType":"image/jpeg","url":"https://media.guim.co.uk/b8dd9e5baf5d53865775d012c029d97237e880ab/0_0_2992_1796/master/2992.jpg"},{"index":2,"fields":{"height":"1200","width":"2000"},"mediaType":"Image","mimeType":"image/jpeg","url":"https://media.guim.co.uk/b8dd9e5baf5d53865775d012c029d97237e880ab/0_0_2992_1796/2000.jpg"},{"index":3,"fields":{"height":"600","width":"1000"},"mediaType":"Image","mimeType":"image/jpeg","url":"https://media.guim.co.uk/b8dd9e5baf5d53865775d012c029d97237e880ab/0_0_2992_1796/1000.jpg"},{"index":4,"fields":{"height":"300","width":"500"},"mediaType":"Image","mimeType":"image/jpeg","url":"https://media.guim.co.uk/b8dd9e5baf5d53865775d012c029d97237e880ab/0_0_2992_1796/500.jpg"},{"index":5,"fields":{"height":"84","width":"140"},"mediaType":"Image","mimeType":"image/jpeg","url":"https://media.guim.co.uk/b8dd9e5baf5d53865775d012c029d97237e880ab/0_0_2992_1796/140.jpg"}]},"data":{"alt":"Business 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Business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg could be in line for a windfall as Somerset Capital, the boutique fund manager he co-founded, explores a possible sale.

","elementId":"a87d9fef-b336-4b08-bf4c-68f2dff85c83"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

According to the Financial Times, which got the story, Rees-Mogg’s stake in Somerset is in the low to mid teens – he resigned from an advisory role at Somerset in 2019 when he joined the cabinet.

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The FT says:

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\n

Three people familiar with the situation said talks to sell the firm, which manages about $5bn, were being held as chief executive Dominic Johnson prepares to step down ahead of a potential move into politics.

\n

Johnson, a former Conservative party vice-chair who co-founded Somerset with Rees-Mogg 15 years ago, will be replaced by current chief operating officer Robert Diggle, according to two people familiar with the matter.

\n

Several options are on the table, including a management buyout or a merger with another asset manager, these people said.

\n

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Somerset Capital is up for sale. A deal would provide a windfall to business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg. https://t.co/G7ZYbBBiB7 Scoop by @AdrienneKlasa @HarrietAgnew and me

&mdash; Emma Dunkley (@EmDunks) September 22, 2022

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It’s not clear how much Rees-Mogg’s stake would be worth today.

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Back in 2019, Somerset was valued at up to £100m during negotiations to sell the company (meaning the now business secretary could have received £15m), but those talks collapsed.

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The current deal is being negotiated at a fraction of the price Somerset was valued at three years ago, the FT says. More here.

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Britain’s short-term borrowing costs have hit their highest level since autumn 2008.

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The yield on two-year gilts has risen to 3.4%, amid a wider sell-off in government bonds as traders anticipate higher interest rates from hawkish central bankers.

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[yields rise when prices fall, and show the rate of return for holding the debt].

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Stock markets have opened sharply lower across Europe, following losses in Asia, after last night’s hawkish interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve rattled Wall Street.

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In London, the FTSE 100 index has dropped 1%, or 71 points, to a three-week low of 7168 points.

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Almost every share on the blue-chip index is lower, with investment companies, property firms and hotel groups among the fallers.

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Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC have both tumbled around 1.7%.

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Fed chair Powell’s warning that there wasn’t a painless way to bring down inflation has heightened anxiety that the US will see weaker growth and higher unemployment, hurting the global economy too.

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Carl Riccadonna, US Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, says:

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\n

The Fed announced a unanimous 75bp hike, coupled with a more hawkish dot plot and Jackson Hole-like press conference in which Chair Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability.

\n

Powell specifically stated: “Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone.”

\n

He concluded by adamantly assuring that regardless of the exact trajectory of interest rates, the Fed is determined to do “enough to restore price stability.”

\n

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Apertura mercados europeos:

🇩🇪 DAX 🔻 -1,18%

🇪🇺 EuroStoxx 🔻 -1,78%

🇬🇧 FTSE 🔻 -0,99%

🇫🇷 CAC 🔻 -1,62%

🇮🇹 FTSE MIB 🔻 -1,40%https://t.co/S6BlqjZDk3

&mdash; Radio Intereconomía (@rintereconomia) September 22, 2022

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South Korea’s KOSPI has dropped 1%, while Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX 200 has lost 1.5%.

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The Bank of England would hit millions of households more than £3bn in extra mortgage costs if it raises interest rates by 75 basis points (three-quarters of a percent) today.

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Analysts say the biggest rate hike for more than three decades – which could come at noon – would mean an extra £3.1bn of interest payments for borrowers on standard variable rate and tracker mortgages.

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Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:

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\n

“For anyone who is already struggling with runaway price rises, the extra cost of the mortgage could be the final straw.”

\n

","elementId":"f2944816-cd0d-4e14-aad4-59d8aa872442"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The investment firm said three-quarters of mortgage holders are on fixed rates, meaning they would not see an immediate impact, but that more than 2 million borrowers are on standard variable rates or trackers.

","elementId":"88010f89-c57b-4997-b3c8-0780d89cd6a1"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

For the average UK property, with a 75% loan-to-value-mortgage, an increase of 0.75 percentage points would mean a £78 jump in monthly interest payments, according to estimates by TotallyMoney.

","elementId":"88735763-0d87-4078-bb51-1be10b1a706f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Fixed-rate deals are due to expire for as many as 3.2 million borrowers within the next two years.

","elementId":"29098fdf-baa7-47e1-8efa-35e84aad6e64"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Here’s the full story:

","elementId":"ab8aee7f-4836-4871-9960-6ace21e80496"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/21/bank-of-england-may-tackle-inflation-with-major-interest-rate-hike","text":"UK households face £3bn hit if Bank goes ahead with 0.75-points rate rise","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"256c3352-85ad-41c5-8169-937947367e65"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663830096000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"08.01 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663830486000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.08 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663830486000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"08.08 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"08.08","title":"UK households face £3bn hit if Bank goes ahead with 0.75-points rate rise","contributors":[{"name":"Richard Partington","imageUrl":"https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/12/27/Richard-Partington.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=7a0cd4e01f7289ba75909509b7b8da7c","largeImageUrl":"https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/12/27/Richard_Partington,_R.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=bb38e72cdfabfe7563b4036c49593334"}],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632c065d8f089a550b8aa3a5","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Concerns that chancellor Kwasi Kwargeng could put the UK public finances on an “unsustainable path” in his mini-Budget on Friday won’t help the pound either.

","elementId":"7880b58e-a973-44b0-85a8-d67a885c9e91"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Last night, the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the government’s planned sweeping tax cuts, at a time of weak economic growth, could leave a £60bn per year hole in the public finances.

","elementId":"a5ebf8f4-5f3d-4e4c-9e03-b0c5310277c3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The IFS, in a joint report with Citi, fears that Liz Truss’s government is “choosing to ramp up borrowing just as it becomes more expensive to do so, in a gamble on growth that may not pay off.”

","elementId":"5bca16d0-df32-4dcc-82d0-f204e1adc56d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Even once the substantial Energy Price Guarantee has expired in October 2024, borrowing could still run at about £100 billion a year in the mid-2020s.

This is more than £60 billion a year higher than the @OBR_uk forecast in March.

[6/13] pic.twitter.com/iZNk5dKQxw

&mdash; Institute for Fiscal Studies (@TheIFS) September 21, 2022

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1572632518570004480","id":"1572632518570004480","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"09ec2637-0b27-414b-818d-a8a66759e163"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

My colleague Phillip Inman explains:

","elementId":"695a634e-3f7a-4765-a4d1-dee541d9f8d4"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Fuelling concerns that the UK’s precarious financial position will spark a run on the pound, the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, is expected to reverse an increase in national insurance payments and cut corporation tax at a cost to the Treasury of £30bn.

","elementId":"bb04176e-3005-4d41-983d-cc5c53315fbd"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Kwarteng, who will announce a review of his fiscal rules to allow the government to borrow more, is also expected to give away billions of pounds by cutting stamp duty on house purchases and confirm a multibillion-pound rise in the defence budget to support the war in Ukraine and boost growth

","elementId":"e7825ebc-3ecc-48d2-b3b5-07a9f092c9ec"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

These measures will be in addition to a freeze on energy prices for consumers and businesses that could cost more than £150bn over two years.

","elementId":"868c097d-28bf-47f0-b972-20a433b232e3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The IFS report said:

","elementId":"a06084e6-c586-44a5-a2c1-3f7131439330"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“Recent rapid increases in the cost of debt interest highlight the risks of substantially and permanently increasing borrowing and putting debt on an ever-increasing path.”

\n

“There is no miracle cure, and setting plans underpinned by the idea that headline tax cuts will deliver a sustained boost to growth is a gamble, at best.”

\n

","elementId":"f99a4e13-5e3b-40f0-9ebc-529e4d91cc2f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Persistent current budget deficits and rising debt as a share of national income would mean that the two main fiscal targets legislated only in January would be missed.

Even once the Energy Price Guarantee has expired, debt would be left on an ever-increasing path.
[9/13] pic.twitter.com/UuSf6BpXMU

&mdash; Institute for Fiscal Studies (@TheIFS) September 21, 2022

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1572632526862024704","id":"1572632526862024704","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"f9982118-981d-4b50-96e6-2d356a2c7f3e"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663829597000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.53 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663830058000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.00 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663830058000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"08.00 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"08.00","title":"Mini-Budget risks setting UK on ‘unsustainable path’","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"},{"id":"632bf52d8f08f4c4bf5d7cad","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

","elementId":"e4187ee7-6ada-4e98-a554-d666a6e171af"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

A plethora of problems have sent sterling sliding to a new 37-year low against the US dollar, ahead of a crunch Bank of England interest rate decision.

","elementId":"a3fef805-021e-4a5d-9c8a-5c85aac35d5d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The pound has dropped to $1.123 this morning, the lowest since 1985, extending its recent slump – it’s now down almost 17% so far this year.

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It lost more ground against the rampant dollar after America’s Federal Reserve delivered its third hefty interest rate rise in a row last night, lifting rates by another 75 basis points (three-quarters of a percent).

","elementId":"32b27329-4017-4d3f-a5a1-12a4efeb5ee6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Anxiety about Vladimir Putin’s threat of nuclear retaliation against the West are hitting the markets.

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UK assets are also being weighed down by concerns over Liz Truss’s push for unfunded tax cuts and spending pledges such as yesterday’s energy price cap for non-domestic users, which will add to borrowing.

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Yesterday’s August public finances, showing the UK borrowed almost twice as much as expected, has added to the pressure.

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Cost to taxpayer of Truss’s £100bn energy package has escaped scrutiny – but could that be harmful in the long run? https://t.co/1QFuvhivhp

&mdash; Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) September 21, 2022

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Fed chair Jerome Powell rattled investors last night by insisting, again, that his central bank would keep tightening rates to push down inflation, and wouldn’t rule out a recession.

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Powell warned:

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\n

We have always understood that restoring price stability while achieving a relatively modest increase in unemployment and a soft landing would be very challenging.

\n

And we don’t know. No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be.”

\n

","elementId":"c250646e-53fa-4871-8f63-a7b9da842295"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/21/fed-raises-interest-rates-third-increase-in-row","text":"Fed raises interest rate by 0.75 percentage points as US seeks to rein in inflation","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"e18a37e7-2414-4cef-8025-57d8ed159701"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

This drove investors into the dollar, which has hit two-decade highs against the euro and the yen this morning too.

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*Sterling Falls To 37-Year Low Of $1.1225

*Euro Falls To Two-Decade Low Of $0.9807

&mdash; *seven (@sevenloI) September 22, 2022

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But will the Bank of England deliver a hawkish rate hike too?

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The money markets say there’s roughly an 90% chance that the BoE will raise Bank Rate by 75 basis points at noon today, to 2.5%, as it tried to tame inflation.

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That would be its biggest raise increase since 1989, and take borrowing costs to their highest levels since late 2008.

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But some economists think the Bank might ‘only’ raise rates by another half a percent, repeating last month’s move (which was the biggest rise since 1995).

","elementId":"1e288544-3a02-4706-981f-b137750d3278"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Policymakers may want to see the impact of the government’s energy bill freeze, which is likely to prevent inflation soaring as much as feared in the short term – while also adding to price pressure further ahead.

","elementId":"00200f3a-f6de-46fe-a458-bd45893f9177"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The Bank could also announce the start of ‘quantitative tightening’, cutting back its holding of UK government debt bought during the financial crisis, and the pandemic.

","elementId":"b2b1d0b5-18c4-444c-97f1-1338b049e809"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg, suggests this might lead the Bank towards a half-point rate rise:

","elementId":"782cb7e3-ad9a-434b-94c8-3f1da5f74c71"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

While 75bp is far from inconceivable, 50bp remains more likely, in our view. Remember, in addition to raising rates, the BoE looks set to announce the start of active selling gilts as part of its quantitative tightening policy.

\n

As financial conditions are already tightening as benchmark rates edge ever higher, we believe the BoE will wait to see the impact of active QT before deciding on whether to steepen the trajectory of rate hikes.

\n

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A smaller hike could further weaken the pound. And either way, higher borrowing costs will add to the burden on consumers amid the cost of living squeeze.

","elementId":"1a1e7ffb-1d6c-433b-bd30-ccfa24dc4c42"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

It’s a busy day for monetary policy. Switzerland and Norway’s central banks are both setting interest rate today – with the Swiss National Bank expected to raise rates by 75bp, out of negative territory.

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The agenda

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    \n

  • 8.30am BST: Swiss National Bank interest rate decision

  • \n

  • 9am BST: Norway’s Norges Bank interest rate decision

  • \n

  • 9.30am BST: ONS’s economic activity and business insights data on UK economy

  • \n

  • 12pm BST: Bank of England interest rate decision

  • \n

  • 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims

  • \n

  • 2.15pm BST: Treasury Committee to scrutinise yesterday’s energy price cap announcement and look ahead to mini-budget

  • \n

  • 3pm BST: Eurozone consumer confidence flash estimate for September

  • \n

","elementId":"36427946-53ba-4603-a3e1-703155fc08b7"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1663829488000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.51 BST","blockLastUpdated":1663830726000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.12 BST","blockFirstPublished":1663829488000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"07.51 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"07.51","title":"Introduction: Pound at 37-year low against dollar as Bank of England decision looms","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 22 Sep 2022 13.25 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 22 Sep 2022 07.51 BST"}],"filterKeyEvents":false,"id":"key-events-carousel-mobile"}” readability=”1.5″>

Filters BETA

Rates expected to double by next summer

The money markets are anticipating that UK Bank Rate will rise to nearly 5% by next summer, as the Bank of England continues to fight inflation.

Such further, rapid tightening would hit economy activity, as Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, explains:

“Hiking rates when the economy is heading into recession and inflation close to a peak testifies to the Bank’s concern that inflation has become embedded in the system.

“The Bank is unlikely to stop raising rates until price pressures and labour shortages have eased significantly.

“We expect rates to double by the middle of next year, causing a significant tightening of credit conditions, and adding to the downward momentum in the economy.”

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…via @samueltombs – after that rate decision financial markets signalling slightly slower rate of interest hikes from Bank of England this year – but market still sees them getting to around 4.8% by next May/June pic.twitter.com/mrhlNIPLeP

&mdash; Ben Chu (@BenChu_) September 22, 2022

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…via @samueltombs – after that rate decision financial markets signalling slightly slower rate of interest hikes from Bank of England this year – but market still sees them getting to around 4.8% by next May/June pic.twitter.com/mrhlNIPLeP

— Ben Chu (@BenChu_) September 22, 2022

Today’s half-point hike means the Bank of England has now increased UK interest rates by 200 basis points so far this year.

Bank Rate began 2022 at 0.25%, but soaring inflation has prompted the Bank to raise rates at every meeting this year.

The Bank of England’s job was made even harder by tomorrow’s’ mini-budget, which is likely to include various tax cuts as the government tries to stimulate growth.

David Goebel, associate director of investment strategy at wealth manager Evelyn Partners, says this has created additional uncertainty for the MPC, as it waits for clarity over Kwasi Kwarteng’s plans.

‘As well as inflation at its highest for a generation and faltering expectations for economic growth, the Bank has a new political administration to consider. Liz Truss’ government is set to be very expansionary in fiscal terms, in an attempt to boost growth, with a few specifics of its economic policy revealed at Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s “fiscal event” tomorrow.

While the Bank’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability – i.e. control inflation – without a full view of policy direction it makes decision making difficult given the potential impact on consumer finances and spending.

Updated at 13.14 BST

The rate rise will increase the pressure on families, points out TUC head of economics Kate Bell:

The government must respond in the mini budget with action to get pay rising faster and to protect jobs from a recession that we may already be in.

“The Chancellor can’t do that with bungs to bankers and big business. He must get pay growing by increasing the minimum wage and giving public service staff a proper pay rise that keeps up with prices. And ministers should give all working people the rights they need to bargain for higher pay across the economy.”

Rachel Reeves MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, has said today’s interest rate rise shows the government has “lost control of the economy”.

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NEW: Interest rates rise to 2.25%.

This Tory government has lost control of the economy.

By putting such huge unfunded and uncosted sums on borrowing they’re pushing up mortgage costs for everyone.

Their reckless approach is an immense risk to family finances.

&mdash; Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) September 22, 2022

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/RachelReevesMP/status/1572904897829543938","id":"1572904897829543938","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"b51df72e-4f14-42a6-b56c-d05d5d32b900"}}”>

NEW: Interest rates rise to 2.25%.

This Tory government has lost control of the economy.

By putting such huge unfunded and uncosted sums on borrowing they’re pushing up mortgage costs for everyone.

Their reckless approach is an immense risk to family finances.

— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) September 22, 2022

Updated at 13.01 BST

The Bank has pledged to act ‘forcefully’ to tame inflation – a signal that further interest rate increases are coming, even though it believes the UK is in recession.

The Monetary Policy Committee insists that “Policy is not on a pre-set path”, as it tries to get inflation down to its 2% target, from 9.9% at present.

Even though a narrow majority of the committee resisted hiking rates by three-quarters of a percent, the MPC says it will be forceful:

The Committee will, as always, consider and decide the appropriate level of Bank Rate at each meeting.

The scale, pace and timing of any further changes in Bank Rate will reflect the Committee’s assessment of the economic outlook and inflationary pressures.

Should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, the Committee will respond forcefully, as necessary.

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…Bank warns it is prepared to be &quot;forceful&quot; on future rate rises, despite delivering a smaller hike today than the Fed yesterday &amp; than some expected… pic.twitter.com/HsfLmWtmdu

&mdash; Ben Chu (@BenChu_) September 22, 2022

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…Bank warns it is prepared to be “forceful” on future rate rises, despite delivering a smaller hike today than the Fed yesterday & than some expected… pic.twitter.com/HsfLmWtmdu

— Ben Chu (@BenChu_) September 22, 2022

Updated at 12.47 BST

The Bank of England will assess the impact of tomorrow’s mini-budget in time for its next interest rate decision in November (when it will publish new forecasts).

The MPC says:

All members also agreed that the forthcoming Growth Plan would provide further fiscal support and was likely to contain news that was material for the economic outlook.

In the November MPC round, the Committee would make a full assessment of the impact on demand and inflation from all these announcements, along with other news, and determine further implications for monetary policy.

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Bank of England will assess the inflationary impact of @KwasiKwarteng's massive &quot;mini budget&quot; – what the government calls &quot;The Growth Plan&quot; – in its November assessment, it says. Which is when we'll have a clearer sense of whether markets are right that Bank Rate could double…

&mdash; Robert Peston (@Peston) September 22, 2022

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Bank of England will assess the inflationary impact of @KwasiKwarteng‘s massive “mini budget” – what the government calls “The Growth Plan” – in its November assessment, it says. Which is when we’ll have a clearer sense of whether markets are right that Bank Rate could double…

— Robert Peston (@Peston) September 22, 2022

Energy bill freeze will ‘add to inflationary pressures’

The Bank of England has also warned that the government’s energy price freeze will push up inflation in the medium-term.

With energy bills rising less sharply, households will have more money to spend on other goods and services (although some people are already having to skip meals due to rising bills)

The Monetary Policy Committee says:

While the Guarantee reduces inflation in the near term, it also means that household spending is likely to be less weak than projected in the August Report over the first two years of the forecast period.

All else equal, and relative to that forecast, this would add to inflationary pressures in the medium term.

That’s a signal that monetary policy may need to be tightened more aggressively in future – meaning higher interest rates for longer.

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This is the important bit. pic.twitter.com/DHmAoHPMkA

&mdash; Duncan Weldon (@DuncanWeldon) September 22, 2022

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Bank of England: UK already in recession

The UK is already in recession, the Bank of England fears, partly due to the bank holiday to mark the Queen’s funeral.

Bank staff have downgraded their growth forecasts, and now predict GDP will shrink by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year.

That would follow the 0.1% drop recorded in April-June – making it the second quarterly contraction in a row.

A month ago, the Bank had predicted the economy would grow by 0.4% in July-September.

But weaker-than-expected growth of just 0.2% in July, and Monday’s bank holiday for the state funeral, have led it to slash its forecasts.

The minutes of this week’s meeting say:

Bank staff now expected GDP to fall by 0.1% in Q3, below the August Report projection of 0.4% growth, and a second successive quarterly decline.

That fall would also, in part, reflect the smaller-than-expected bounce back in growth following the bank holiday in Q2 and the expected impact from the additional bank holiday in September for the Queen’s state funeral.

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NEW

Bank of England raises interest rates again by 0.5% to 2.25%, a 14 year high.

While the energy plan now means it forecasts inflation will peak next month at 11%, Bank now assumes the UK is already in recession from April, with GDP falling this quarter as well as last.

&mdash; Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) September 22, 2022

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NEW

Bank of England raises interest rates again by 0.5% to 2.25%, a 14 year high.

While the energy plan now means it forecasts inflation will peak next month at 11%, Bank now assumes the UK is already in recession from April, with GDP falling this quarter as well as last.

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) September 22, 2022

Updated at 12.29 BST

Bank sees inflation peaking lower thanks to energy bill freeze

The Bank has lowered its forecast for inflation, due to the energy price freeze.

They now predict that CPI inflation is likely to peak in October at just under 11% – lower than the peak of 13% forecast last month, before the two-year cap on bills was announced.

The minutes of the meeting warn, though,t hat we could suffer double-digit inflation for months:

Nevertheless, energy bills will still go up and, combined with the indirect effects of higher energy costs, inflation is expected to remain above 10% over the following few months, before starting to fall back.

The Bank has also decided to start unwinding its stock of UK government bonds, built up through its quantitative easing programme following the financial crisis, and then the pandemic.

It will reduce the stock of purchased UK government bonds by £80bn over the next twelve months, to a total of £758bn.

This is “in line with the strategy set out in the minutes of the August MPC meeting”, it says.

It means the Bank will be reducing its holdings, just as the UK government looks to borrow more, to fund energy price caps and likely tax cuts.

Bank of England split 5-3-1 over rate rise

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee was split, badly, over today’s interest rate decsion.

Five members – governor Andrew Bailey, deputy governors Ben Broadbent and Jon Cunliffe, chief economist Huw Pill, and external member Silvana Tenreyro – voted to lift rates by half a percent, to 2.25%

Three – external members Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann, plus deputy governor Dave Ramsden – pushed for a larger, 75 basis point hike (which would have been the biggest since 1989).

And the MPC’s newest member, Swati Dhingra, voted to only raise rates by 0.25%.

This lack of unanimity is not a good look for the Bank.

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The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5-4 to increase #BankRate to 2.25%. https://t.co/0JjcPkmW01 pic.twitter.com/k2Ey9DhtbO

&mdash; Bank of England (@bankofengland) September 22, 2022

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Updated at 12.33 BST

Bank of England raises UK interest rates… to 14-year high of 2.25%

Newsflash: The Bank of England has raised UK interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.25% in an attempt to combat soaring inflation amid the cost of living crisis.

That’s the seventh consecutive increase in Bank Rate in a row, but a smaller rise than many City investors had expected.

Today’s rate rise — the second 50bp increase in a row – shows that the Bank is trying to prevent inflation becoming persistently embedded, despite concerns over the economy.

The decision by the Bank’s monetary policy committee takes rates to the highest level since 2008.

Updated at 12.17 BST

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Okay ten-minute warning for the Bank of England.
They should ( think the £) increase interest-rates by 0.75%.
They might increase interest-rates by 0.5%

&mdash; Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) September 22, 2022

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Okay ten-minute warning for the Bank of England.
They should ( think the £) increase interest-rates by 0.75%.
They might increase interest-rates by 0.5%

— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) September 22, 2022

The UK government’s energy bill freeze might encourage the Bank of England to resist raising rates by as much as three-quarters of a percent.

The average domestic energy bill is being frozen at £2,500 a year until 2024, superseding Ofgem’s price cap that was supposed to rise to £3,549 on 1 October, and then again in January.

That means CPI inflation should peak lower and sooner than previously expected (but still leaves households paying much more for energy than a year ago).

RBC Capital Markets explains:

That should, in turn, weaken the argument that the MPC to act to quicken the pace of tightening in coming months to control inflation expectations in the face of high and rising spot inflation while also affording the Committee a degree of space attach more weight to the outlook for activity in their decision making.

We’ll find out in 15 minutes….

Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst, ActivTrades, says it is “widely assumed” that the Bank of England will announce a rate hike of 75 basis points.

The BoE’s own predictions point to an incoming recession, while the government is having to borrow enormous amounts in order to mitigate the effects of a devastating rise in the country’s cost of living.

Looking ahead, despite the shift to a more hawkish stance by the central bank, the pound is likely to remain under pressure because of the country’s downgraded economic prospects.

Last month, the Bank raised interest rates by 50bp:

UK interest rates

City braces for Bank of England rate decision

Tension is mounting in the City, as investors brace for the Bank of England’s interest rate announcement at noon.

We’re expecting a hefty increase in borrowing costs – at least another half-point, as the central bank tries to cool inflation despite fears the UK is heading towards recession.

Many traders predict the BoE could hike rates by three-quarters of a percent. That would take Bank rate to 2.5%, from 1.75% today, the highest since the start of the financial crisis.

That would be the biggest rate rise since 1989 – and with inflation at 9.9% in August, the Monetary Policy Committee may choose to tighten policy aggressively. Especially as the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by another 75bp last night, hitting the pound to 37-year lows today.

The decision has been delayed by a week due to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral.

Updated at 11.38 BST

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