Chance of June Fed rate cut under 50% as ‘higher for longer’ worries return

Hello and welcome to the working week.

What is the collective noun for interest rate announcements? A pack? A litter? Whatever it is, we have one on our hands.

The headline acts will be the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, but we will also have policy updates from (in no specific ranking order) China, Australia, Switzerland, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey, Taiwan, Russia, Brazil and Mexico.

Last week’s unexpected rise in US inflation has raised doubts about whether the Fed will cut rates from 5.5 per cent to 5.25 per cent, as previously expected. My colleagues Claire Jones and Harriet Clarfelt explain the “last mile” challenges that Washington’s rate-setters must overcome.

In contrast, the success of Japanese workers in securing pay rises might push the BoJ to begin raising interest rates again. Read the excellent analysis by my colleagues Kana Inagaki and Robin Harding to understand what lies ahead for Japanese monetary policy.