Hawaii’s COVID cases show no signs of slowing in new year

The average number of new daily coronavirus cases in Hawaii continued to rise on New Year’s Eve, with no sign of abating heading into 2022.

On Friday the state Department of Health reported five new coronavirus-related deaths — four on Oahu and one on Maui — and 3,290 new infections statewide, bringing the state’s totals since the start of the pandemic to 1,090 fatalities and 112,932 cases.

The seven-day average of new cases statewide, at 1,955, was a 393% increase from two weeks ago as the highly contagious omicron variant continues to spread. Hawaii’s average positivity rate, or the percentage of people who tested positive, grew to a new high of 15.1%. All four major counties now have average positivity rates of 10% or higher.

Tim Brown, an infectious disease modeler for the East- West Center in Manoa, painted a dire picture for the start of the new year, noting two consecutive days of case counts over 3,000.

“This very, very rapid growth that we’re seeing is certainly extremely problematic here in the islands,” Brown said Friday during the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s livestream program “Spotlight Hawaii.”

“We’re practically in vertical growth. If you actually look at the charts, the graphs, and plot them over the entire year, what it actually looks like is the jets doing vertical climbs off of Waikiki.”

Brown said there was “no question this is going to continue for some time,” with no certainty when the peak will occur.

What’s concerning is that the rapid rise is now appearing on the neighbor islands, which have been showing relatively high case counts over the past few days.

Friday’s new infections included 2,514 cases on Oahu, 317 on Maui, 256 on Hawaii island, 127 on Kauai, 10 on Molokai, two on Lanai and 64 Hawaii residents diagnosed out of state.

DOH also added a concert at Paddlers Restaurant & Bar on Molokai to its list of COVID-19 clusters in public venues over the past 14 days. The concert took place Dec. 18 at the Kaunakakai establishment.

The agency’s cluster list of recent events includes “Hawaii’s Finest Music Festival,” which took place Dec. 17 and 18 at Bishop Museum, along with an after-party for the festival those same dates at Moani Waikiki.

All patrons who attended these events are advised to get tested for COVID-19.

Although several studies indicate omicron infections have resulted in fewer hospitalizations, Brown said it is still a concern due the higher volume and rate of spread, which will result in at least as many hospitalizations as during the delta variant wave.

With hospitals already full of non-COVID-19 patients, this puts a strain on Hawaii’s health care system, Brown said. Additionally, the long-term health effects of omicron remain unknown.

Hospitalization rates continue to rise, with 141 patients ill with coronavirus reported by the state Friday, up from 101 on Monday and 73 on Dec. 24.

Lt. Gov. Josh Green independently reported 152 patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Hawaii as of Friday, and that 62 of them, or about 41%, were vaccinated.

Green also posted year-end reflections on social media, saying he was grateful to the community and “very hopeful” entering the new year.

“Today we may face another surge, driven by one of the most infectious respiratory viruses we have ever seen — but we are more prepared than ever,” he said. “High vaccination rates are proving effective at protecting our community from severe disease, tests allow us to reduce spread, medicines for our most vulnerable are entering the market and boosters are offering greater protection as the virus mutates and immunity wanes.”

Even so, he said, too many are still at risk as the virus spreads widely throughout the community.

“So we must each take care to continue to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and the healthcare workers who have taken incredible care of us throughout the entire pandemic. That means GETTING A BOOSTER, staying home if you’re sick, and managing your risk.”

According to DOH, 74.2% of Hawaii’s population has completed vaccinations and 25% has gotten boosters.

Brown also emphasized the importance of getting boosted to increase the effectiveness of the initial series of vaccines, which have waned to just about 30% effectiveness in their protection against omicron. He said studies have shown the additional shot to be effective at boosting the effectiveness of the initial series of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines back to about 70%.

But boosting alone is not enough, according to Brown, and preventing the spread of omicron requires a layered approach.

Once again Brown said Hawaii residents need to up their masking game, replacing neck gaiters and cloth masks with higher-quality N95s, KN95s, or double masking with a surgical mask beneath a cloth mask.

Crowded events should be canceled, he said. Small celebrations with family and a few friends are best. If one has access to them, rapid COVID-19 tests are ideal for every attendee before gatherings or parties.

The state’s Safe Travels program should be updated to include boosters as proof of full vaccination, he said, and ideally should also require a 24-hour preflight test. As omicron spreads across the U.S., more travelers who haven’t been boosted could potentially arrive in Hawaii during the virus’ incubation period.

“If we bring in people who are already infected and incubating,” he said, “some of them will become sick here, and some of them eventually, especially the older ones, will potentially become seriously ill and may add an additional burden to our health care system that we absolutely do not need right now.”

In addition, omicron is not done mutating, according to Brown.

“In fact, there are sublineages — basically children of omicron — that are starting to develop already that have different mutations, some of which may eventually end up affecting both its transmissibility and its immuno­scape,” he said.

The world needs to deliver vaccines to everyone around the globe efficiently to prevent future variants, he said.