The Reform-ation of UK politics? Labour and Tories fear major backlash in favour of Nigel Farage's party as polls close in local elections and key by-election

10pm Thursday

Polling stations close.

Vote counting has started in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election and in four out of the six mayoral races: Doncaster, Greater Lincolnshire, North Tyneside, and West of England.

Four of the 23 local authorities holding elections will start counting: Hertfordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland and Staffordshire.

Only Northumberland plans to reveal all its election outcomes overnight; the other three will disclose some results by morning, with the remaining results anticipated later on Friday.

2am Friday 

Results are due around this time for two of the mayoral contests.

North Tyneside, a stronghold for the Labour party in the north-east, sees their candidate Karen Clark as the frontrunner, although a potential low voter turnout could lead to a closer contest than predicted.

The West of England mayor could be a tight race between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens; Labour’s chances may be affected by the outgoing mayor, Dan Norris, being suspended from the party after he was arrested on suspicion of sexual offences.

3am

Counting should be over in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of the previous MP, Mike Amesbury, after he was given a suspended prison sentence for punching a man in a street in Frodsham, Cheshire.

The result this time is expected to be much closer, with Reform hoping to pull off a shock win.

3.30am

Greater Lincolnshire is one of two new mayoral positions being contested for the first time and is likely to be a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Reform.

The Tories have picked the leader of North Lincolnshire council Rob Waltham, while the Reform candidate is former Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns.

5am

The result of the Doncaster mayoral election is due, with Labour’s Ros Jones hoping for a fourth term in office.

7am

A full set of council results should be in for Northumberland, which is currently run by a Conservative minority administration.

Labour is the main opposition and will hope to improve its standing, though Reform and independent candidates could also make gains, ensuring the council remains in no overall control.

9am

Ballot papers will start to be counted around this time for the remaining two mayoral contests in Cambridgeshire & Peterborough and Hull & East Yorkshire.

Counting will also get under way in those local authorities that did not begin overnight.

1pm

The full result is due for Durham council, where Labour is currently the largest party but does not have a majority and has been shut out of power for the past four years by a multi-party coalition that includes the Tories, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and various independents.

Labour will hope to regain full control, but is facing an added challenge this time from Reform.

1.45pm

The Tories could see their tiny majority vanish in Lancashire, where Labour, Reform and independent candidates are all hoping to make advances.

2.30pm

The result is due for the new Hull & East Yorkshire mayor.

The Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems all enjoy support in different parts of this region, while Reform has picked former boxer and Olympic medallist Luke Campbell as its candidate.

3pm

The pace begins to pick up with three councils due to finish declaring.

Doncaster is the only local authority Labour is defending at these elections, but the party faces a big threat from Reform, which is treating the council as a top target.

The Tories are likely to see their numbers cut in both Buckinghamshire and Leicestershire, but could well remain the largest party on both councils.

The result is also due for the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough mayor, which was won by Labour’s Nik Johnson in 2021 but he is not standing this time, and where both the Tories and Lib Dems fancy their chances.

4pm

The losses could start to mount for the Conservatives.

The Lib Dems are hoping to replace the Tories as the largest party in Gloucestershire and Hertfordshire and could make major gains on both councils.

In Shropshire the Conservatives may lose power thanks to a challenge from the Lib Dems, Labour and smaller parties, though they could hang on in Staffordshire where they have a large majority.

4.30pm

Labour did well in the county of Derbyshire at the general election and is hoping to pick up seats on the council this year.

With the Lib Dems and Reform also eyeing gains, the Tories may lose overall control.

5pm

A string of results could bring more gloom for the Conservatives.

Reform is threatening to eat into the Tories’ large presence in Lincolnshire and North Northamptonshire, while the Conservatives’ tiny majority in Nottinghamshire is likely to evaporate in the face of challenges from Reform, Labour and local independents.

The Lib Dems hope to chip away at the Tory numbers in Warwickshire and do well enough in Oxfordshire to take majority control.

In Worcestershire, the story could be one of multiple parties gaining at the Conservatives’ expense, particularly the Greens and Reform.

6pm

More Tory losses may come in Cornwall, where the party has minority control of the council but faces twin threats from the Liberal Democrats and independents.

The Lib Dems are also hoping to wipe out the Conservatives’ majority in Devon and make gains at the Tories’ expense in Wiltshire.

In Cambridgeshire, the Lib Dems are currently the largest party but do not have a majority and will be keen to improve their position.

7pm

The final results are due from Kent and West Northamptonshire: two councils where the Tories currently have a majority but where they face challenges from more than one party.

Reform and Labour are hoping to advance in both areas, while Kent could see gains for the Lib Dems, Greens and independent candidates.

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