LABOUR’S promise to “smash the gangs” will not see Channel migrant numbers fall until at least next year.
Law enforcement sources indicate that measures to disrupt the route known as “upstream” by targeting smugglers and providers of boats will require several months to have an impact.
Ministers have been warned good weather this year is also contributing to a surge in crossings that are on course for a record year.
Compared to the same period last year, the number of optimal crossing days, referred to as “red days” due to calm seas and favorable wind conditions, has doubled in 2025.
And intelligence monitoring of the Channel has indicated a rise in migrants from the Horn of Africa has seen riskier and larger crossings attempted.
Those smugglers are cramming more people into boats, which is also pushing up the numbers.
More than 12,000 people have already made the journey this year, putting 2025 on worst ever year since crossings began in 2017.
Government insiders are highly pessimistic about the prospect of reducing numbers this year.
Authorities caution that advancements in policies and enforcement efforts may not yield significant results until 2026, attributing this delay to the large existing population of migrants in France who are prepared to undertake the dangerous voyage.
Last night Sir Keir Starmer met with European counterparts in Tirana, Albania to discuss continent wide efforts to clampdown on illegal migration.
He is also pushing France to do more to stop the boats from launching on their beaches or reaching British waters as part of his EU-reset plan.
No boats made it across on Wednesday and Thursday when the weather was choppy, according to Home Office data.
But 292 migrants arrived in five boats on Tuesday.
