According to reports, Russia is considering sending 10,000 soldiers to a separatist territory in Eastern Europe, sparking concerns about Putin’s expanding military actions in the region.
The Prime Minister of Moldova has raised alarm about Russia’s alleged plans to send troops to Transnistria, a pro-Moscow region that is officially part of Moldova according to international recognition.
The small landlocked region, sandwiched between Ukraine and the rest of Moldova, has been controlled by separatists for 33 years.
Transnistria benefits from both economic and military assistance from Moscow, and there have been statements from local politicians expressing their desire for the territory to be integrated into Russia.
The region’s location between the pro-Europe governments in Moldova and Ukraine make it impossible for Putin to get soldiers in at present.
While Moldova currently has an EU-friendly government, its PM has said Russia is meddling in its upcoming election this September.
Prime Minister Dorin Recean told the FT this is likely in the hope that a more pro-Kremlin government might allow for Russian troops to be sent to Transnistria.
“This is a huge effort to undermine Moldovan democracy,” he told the paper.
“They want to consolidate their military presence in the Transnistrian region.”
Russian troops have been based in Transnistria since 1992, when the Kremlin supported the region in its war of independence from Moldova.
However, the numbers have substantially wound down over the years, with there currently only being about 1,500 soldiers fighting under the Russian banner.
But only a few of these will have actually been sent by Moscow, with most being locals who signed up.
Transnistria isn’t internationally recognised as an independent state, and is not a member of the UN.
Think tank The Institute for the Study of War forecast last October that Russia might use its ties to Transnistria “to establish long-term influence over Moldovan domestic and foreign policies”.
Recean further highlighted the ominous military threats to Ukraine and NATO that could arise from extra Russian troops in the region.
Its location to Ukraine’s southwest could raise fresh headaches for Kyiv if Russia used Transnistria to open up a new front in the war.
“You can imagine with 10,000 troops, what the leverage and pressure would be on the southwestern part of Ukraine,” he said.
But Recean also noted the area’s proximity to Romania, which is a NATO country.
If Russian forces threatened or attacked Romania – or any other NATO member – then the entire alliance would be obliged to come to its aid.
NATO Article 5 sets out that an attack on one member state is an attack on all, meaning Russian attacks against a NATO country could quickly spiral into all-out war.
Transnistria’s history
Transnistria is a tiny slither of land along Moldova’s border with Ukraine.
The region has been controlled by Russian backed separatists for decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
It declared independence in 1990, which was followed by a war that saw Russia support Transnistria’s independence.
Moscow has maintained a strong military presence in the territory since 1992.
Many of Transnistria’s political leaders have long voiced their intent for the region to become a part of Russia.
But it still remains internationally recognised as part of Moldova – a country that seeks closer co-operation with the EU.
Transnistria has a population of around 465,000.
Fears of a war between the West and Russia over Transnistria have been amplified by the separatist region’s leader Vadim Krasnoselsky.
He told the Russian TASS news agency: “A war in Transnistria would mean a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.
“I don’t have the slightest doubt about it. Everything is closely intertwined here.
“Both Romania, a NATO member, and the Russian Federation have interests here.”
Recean added that the 10,000-troop figure was based on intelligence assessments.
“Currently, their forces there are almost meaningless,” he said.
“But with a higher military presence in Transnistria that a Russia-leaning government can allow for, they can consolidate.”
Moldova was part of the Soviet Union before its collapse in 1991.
In recent years, it has sought to pursue closer ties with the European Union, and became an official candidate to join the EU in 2022.
A referendum held last year committing Moldova on its path to EU membership passed by just 0.7% of the vote amid what was widely believed to be a Russian interference campaign.
Recean told the FT that Russia spent the equivalent of 1% of Moldova’s GDP on influence campaigns in 2024.
