The Hollywood sign and the Golden Gate Bridge are among the iconic landmarks set to be wiped out by a huge earthquake when ‘The Big One’ hits California, experts warn.
The devastating seismic event is guaranteed to happen according to scientists, who are increasingly sure it will occur in the next three decades.
Sarah Minson from the US Geological Survey (USGS) recently warned that the chances of a historically large quake striking the San Francisco Bay Area within that time frame have risen to a staggering 72 percent.
The likeliest scenario is that a massive tremor will start along the infamous San Andreas Fault, an 800-mile fault line running from Southern California, through the Bay Area, and all the way to the northern part of the state.
While the Bay Area is at great risk, recent simulations have found that the southern portion of the San Andreas is now more likely to rupture, putting Los Angeles and San Diego in mortal danger.
‘The Big One,’ the name for a potential earthquake bigger than the 7.9 magnitude disaster that leveled San Francisco in 1906, would likely kill hundreds of people, topple buildings, and forever change the landscape of California.
That includes potentially destroying some of the state’s most famous landmarks, which have stood for decades, including the Hollywood sign, the Golden Gate Bridge, and the San Diego’s Gaslamp Quarter.
Even though California has spent billions reinforcing thousands of older structures, studies still warn that the short distance between the state’s major faults and these structures could make the shaking too intense for anything to survive.
Here are several of the icons that face destruction when ‘The Big One’ finally arrives.
USGS carried out a simulation of a massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Southern California in 2015. The predictions included hundreds dying and up to $200 billion in damages
Hollywood Sign – Los Angeles
The most recent predictions from USGS looked at a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the San Andreas Fault originating right in Los Angeles, a city of 3.8 million people.
This hypothetical ‘Big One’ would cause roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $200 billion in damages, according to the Great California ShakeOut.
The Hollywood Sign, sitting atop Mount Lee in the Hollywood Hills, is at high risk during the Big One because of the threat caused by landslides.
Even though the sign was rebuilt in 1978 using steel and a reinforced foundation, USGS warned in their ShakeOut report that the steep slopes and loose, dry soil in the Hollywood Hills make it a prime candidate for a massive landslide.
The Hollywood Sign sits just 40 miles from the San Andreas Fault. The Big One could potentially trigger other nearby faults to rupture, like the Hollywood fault, which sits right under the the famous sign.
The famous Hollywood Sign is now made of steel, but a landslide on Mount Lee could still topple the letters during a major earthquake
Los Angeles City Hall
This historic 1928 building was retrofitted in the 1990s to better withstand earthquakes, but it’s still at risk in an extreme event like ‘The Big One’.
Los Angeles City Hall was originally built with unreinforced masonry components like brick, stone, and concrete blocks.
It was common for structures to be built like this before 1978, but it also made these buildings prone to cracking or collapsing during an earthquake.
That vulnerability in City Hall was already exposed during the 1994 Northridge earthquake, prompting LA to upgrade the landmark’s masonry elements, install steel bracing, and rubber and steel pads to the base.
Despite the improvements, earthquake studies show that City Hall’s location in downtown LA is right in an area of ‘high liquefaction risk’.
This means that the saturated soil underground loses strength during extreme earthquake shaking and behaves like a liquid.
This could cause uneven settling or severe foundational damage, even to an updated building like City Hall.
Los Angeles City Hall was built in 1928 and retrofitted in the 1990s to better withstand earthquakes, but it still sits in an unstable part of the city
Capitol Records Building – Los Angeles
This iconic 1956 building in Hollywood was singled out in a 2013 study by the Los Angeles Times of more than over 1,000 outdated concrete buildings at risk of collapsing during a major earthquake.
Just like City Hall, it was built before modern building codes which account for seismic stress.
Its location near the San Andreas and Hollywood Faults and the potential that it was built on liquefiable soil in the Los Angeles Basin increases its risk of collapse even further.
The ShakeOut report added that fire from gas line ruptures could also lead to countless building, including Capitol Records, simply burning down in the potential disaster.
The Capitol Records Building was built before modern safety codes required buildings to prepare for earthquakes
Gaslamp Quarter – San Diego
A major US shopping and dining attraction, the Gaslamp Quarter in downtown San Diego is known for its Victorian-era buildings, many built in the late 19th century.
Much of this tourist destination still has unreinforced masonry, making the buildings highly vulnerable to collapsing during an earthquake stronger than 7.8 in magnitude.
Along with the simulated devastation caused by the San Andreas fault, the Rose Canyon Fault also cuts straight through the city and ‘The Big One’ could set off this fault line as well.
Liquefaction is also a major risk here, as the downtown area sits on reclaimed land near San Diego Bay. ‘The Big One’ could cause foundations to shift or sink.
The ShakeOut simulation predicted that there could be up to 1,600 fires in the region following the quake.
Roughly four million people visit the Gaslamp Quarter each year.
Around 4 million people visit the Gaslamp Quarter each year. Much of this tourist destination still has unreinforced masonry, making the buildings highly vulnerable to collapsing during an earthquake
Balboa Park – San Diego
Balboa Park is home to 18 museums, numerous gardens, and the famous San Diego Zoo.
A 2017 projection by the California Geological Survey found that even a smaller 6.9 magnitude quake along San Diego’s Rose Canyon Fault would cause $38 billion in damage and up to 800 deaths.
If ‘The Big One’ were to strike Southern California, many of the buildings and attractions within the park could be damaged or collapse due to a lack of long-awaited upgrades.
In 2023, KGTV reported that Balboa Park still needed over $400 million in infrastructure upgrades.
Along with building collapses, post-quake fires could spread rapidly through Balboa Park’s gardens and wooden structures, potentially destroying entire sections of the park, including the San Diego Zoo.
Many of the zoo’s enclosures, especially those for elephants or large cats, rely on concrete walls or steel fencing. A massive earthquake could crack their concrete foundations or bend steel supports, potentially allowing animals to escape.
This happened at the Los Angeles Zoo during the magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake 30 years ago.
Balboa Park is home to 18 museums, numerous gardens, and the famous San Diego Zoo, but it’s still waiting for hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure upgrades
Golden Gate Bridge – San Francisco
If the San Andreas set off ‘The Big One’ in the Bay Area instead of Southern California, it could come within the next seven years.
‘The threat of earthquakes extends across the entire San Francisco Bay region, and a major quake is likely before 2032,’ USGS officials wrote in a report.
The last time a quake stronger than 6.7 in magnitude struck the Bay Area was the Loma Prieta earthquake that killed 63 people and injured nearly 4,000 in 1989.
If an earthquake even stronger than that one were to hit San Francisco, the city’s iconic Golden Gate Bridge could be at risk for structural failure.
The bridge, which was built in 1937, is approximately 10 miles east of the northern segment of the San Andreas Fault.
While the Golden Gate has been updated to withstand a magnitude 8.3 quake, extreme shaking in the bay could still cause damage to its anchorages or towers.
If the quake exceeds magnitude 8.3, the anchorages, which secure the main cables, could shift or crack under the extreme stress.
The suspension bridge’s deck or roadway is designed to flex, but extreme shaking could damage its expansion joints or cause the deck to buckle.
While the bridge is not likely to collapse, even moderate damage to the anchorages or deck could force the Golden Gate to close for repairs.
The Golden Gate Bridge has been updated to withstand a magnitude 8.3 earthquake, but it’s unknown if it could survive anything beyond this level of shaking
Coit Tower – San Francisco
Located on Telegraph Hill, Coit Tower is vulnerable to landslides, as the area is on steep and unstable ground.
Despite being upgraded to withstand strong earthquakes in the 1990s, the 1933 landmark sits just 10 miles from the San Andreas Fault.
A 2017 USGS simulation examining the nearby Hayward Fault found that even a 7.0 magnitude quake likely exceeded what the tower was capable of withstanding.
Between prolonged shaking cracking Coit Tower’s concrete structure and a potential landslide destabilizing its foundation, the 210-foot tower could be at risk of collapsing in a cataclysmic earthquake.
Coit Tower sits on an unstable hill in San Francisco, increasing the possibility of a devastating landslide weakening its foundation
The Great California Shakeout predicts that a 7.8-magnitude earthquake could kill 1,800 people and cause $200 billion in damages in Southern California alone
Just 15 miles from Coit Tower, the Hayward Fault runs along the foot of the East Bay hills. The last major earthquake hit on October 21, 1868, measuring 6.8 in magnitude.
Historical records show that five people were killed and 30 were injured. Scientists have been monitoring the fault, finding it produces major quakes ever 140 years.
Researchers at the University of California, Berkley said: ‘Since it has been more than 144 years since the last major earthquake, the clock is ticking.’
‘It is very likely that the Hayward fault will rupture and produce a significant earthquake within the next 30 years.’
