North Shropshire byelection: ‘One more strike and he’s out’, Tory MP says of Boris Johnson – live

Speaking in Oswestry outside The Bailey Head pub after a 25-minute walkabout through the market town in her constituency, Helen Morgan said of her win:

Well, I’m absolutely thrilled, humbled and honoured – and obviously a little bit tired.

She added that voters had been “moving towards” the Liberal Democrats – and away from the Conservatives – “even before the issue with the party, last week”.

We found that people really felt as if they were taken for granted.

Our ambulance services are under pressure, our farming community feels taken for granted. And when we went out and told them that they could have an MP who would listen to them and fight their corner, that message really resonated.

You can’t deny the impact of the party and the news that broke last week, but I think it was moving in our direction before then.

Here is an insightful thread examining the limitations of what byelections can tell us in terms of wider public opinion from Anthony Wells, a byelection specialist and head of European political and social research at YouGov

The polling expert Sir John Curtice has described the North Shropshire byelection result as a political earthquake.

If the Richter scale is up to 10, it would register an 8.5, the election expert told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning.

He said that while the result was not quite unprecedented, the precedents are not comfortable for the Tories.

A 34-point swing from the Tories to Lib Dems since 2019 in the seat is comparable only to the Christchurch byelection in 1993 at the end of a parliament that saw the Conservative government fall to the landslide of Tony Blair’s New Labour, he said.

In a sense, two weeks ago, nobody would have seen this coming. Two weeks ago, yes the Conservatives were in trouble – their position in the polls was down to neck-and-neck and they lost 13 points in the Old Bexley by-election.

But [North Shropshire] was not a constituency first of all that at all looked like promising territory for the Liberal Democrats – it voted 60% to Leave – very, very different from Chesham and Amersham… and secondly while the Conservative position had weakened it hadn’t weakened that much.

The Liberal Democrats do look like they have reclaimed their mantle as the by-election party of choice.

Meanwhile, we’re seeing Conservative voters and Leave voters in a true blue constituency taking the opportunity to protest pretty spectacularly about what they think of this current government.

The newly elected North Shropshire MP Helen Morgan has appeared at a victory rally alongside former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron in Oswestry, this morning.

PA reports that after Morgan used a yellow pin to pop a large blue balloon which had “Boris’ Bubble” emblazoned on the side, Farron said:

I don’t know if you realise how many millions of people have woken up this morning feeling a bit of light has broken into the darkness.

But it turns out, if you are incompetent, it turns out if you tell lies, it turns out if you take the people for granted, there is a price to pay.

Democracy and justice is alive and well in Britain and the people of North Shropshire have spoken for the whole of Britain last night.

Frustrated MPs across the Conservative party have little reason to support the prime minister unless he can quickly repair his rift with voters, writes Katy Balls in this week’s column.

Here is an extract:

After a tricky few weeks for Boris Johnson, it is impossible to separate the prime minister from the result. Tory MPs believe he was a key factor on the doorstep. The result points to issues in a general election. While byelections are more vulnerable to protest votes, the North Shropshire vote shows how tactical voting has the potential to wound the Tories at the next election.

There is a particular concern among those MPs in Lib Dem-facing seats, of which there are around 50. But the problem goes further. “If we can’t keep a majority in a true blue seat that voted heavily to leave, where can we?” asks one frustrated Tory MP.

Most immediately, the North Shropshire byelection is a problem for Johnson’s own authority. His MPs have been willing to begrudgingly put up with things they don’t agree with – such as tax rises and Covid restrictions – when they believed Johnson had the support of the public. If they start to see him as the central problem, the calculation will change. Johnson will find it even harder to get his agenda through.

Already Tory MPs from across the party are openly discussing whether he can really lead them into the next election. As the prime minister takes a break over Christmas, he will need to use that time to work out how to regain the support of his party. Otherwise, 2022 will be his most turbulent year yet.

And here is the full column: Tories know Johnson lost them North Shropshire. They may now dispense with him

More from academic Matt Goodwin with (what he calls) a short thread looking at how, almost two years to the day since his emphatic election victory, Boris Johnson’s electorate is beginning to unravel

From the FT’s Jim Pickard

Jonathan Reynolds said the effort Labour put in to campaigning for the North Shropshire seat was proportionate to its chances of winning.

The shadow business secretary told BBC Breakfast:

I think we’re proud of the candidate we ran, I think Ben Wood will be a Labour MP at some stage in future, great talent.

We put the effort into it that was proportionate to our chances of winning, but clearly people have wanted to send a message to the government – they’re fed up with the incompetence, the sleaze, the kind of revelations we’ve seen over the last few weeks.

Oliver Dowden said he was in touch with Boris Johnson this morning. The Tory party chairman told LBC the government had to prove it was “focused on people’s priorities”.

I have been in touch with the prime minister this morning. I’m seeing the prime minister immediately after I’ve done this very extensive news round this morning.

What we must do as a government is demonstrate that we are focused on the people’s priorities and I think what you’ve heard over the past couple of months is a lot of noises off.

That is why, for example, we are focusing, in the middle of this terrible surging Omicron virus, we’re focusing on getting the booster into people’s arms in order to make sure that we can keep some element of normality going on in our lives.

That’s why we’re engaged with the hospitality industry who are facing tremendous challenges right now.

We have to be laser-like focused on the people’s priorities, and that is the message I take from this – that people don’t want all these noises off. They want us focused on their priorities.

These are from James Johnson, a pollster who worked in Downing Street when Theresa May was prime minister

Your hourly reminder, this one’s from the Daily Mail’s John Stevens

This is from Matt Goodwin, an academic specialising in why voters support rightwing populists

The shadow business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, said the result was a “terrible” outcome for the Conservative party.

He told BBC Breakfast:

It’s clearly a terrible result for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party, but I think one that they thoroughly deserve.

He added:

Clearly people have wanted to send a message to the government they’re fed up with the incompetence, the sleaze, the kind of revelations we’ve seen over the last few weeks. And I think the government has to take heed of that.

[At] the minute it feels, to be frank, that this government is not in control of itself, let alone the country. And I think the result last night reflects that.

Oliver Dowden said he is “confident” that an inquiry into alleged Covid rule-busting parties will “vindicate” Boris Johnson’s assertion that no restrictions were breached.

The Tory party chairman told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

I understand and I appreciate that there was a perception, particularly from the media coverage surrounding those alleged events, that we were not abiding by the rules.

I have to say to you that there is an ongoing inquiry by the cabinet secretary and I’m confident that that inquiry will vindicate the prime minister’s assertion that everything that happened was within the rules.

But I do appreciate the noise and the sound around that was something that was of concern to voters.

These are from former politics professor and elections expert, Ivor Crewe. Crewe explains that the result in North Shropshire is unique as far as the loss of “true blue” seats go in that it was clearly a verdict on Boris Johnson’s character and the integrity of his government, as opposed to dissatisfaction with policies.