His sudden transformation into a respected international figure has impressed many of Sir Keir Starmer’s supporters. They marvel at how effortlessly he has assumed the role of a well-traveled statesman.
It is true that the Prime Minister appears to be succeeding better in this role than many thought possible, though he hasn’t achieved anything yet.
Sir Keir’s appearance and demeanor certainly fit the part. He exudes fluency, confidence, and a deep understanding of his responsibilities, in line with his background as a skilled lawyer. Noteworthy figures such as President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron hold him in high regard. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared touched by Sir Keir’s supportive embrace.
From one moment to the next, Sir Keir transitions from being in Washington, engaging in diplomatic discussions with Trump, to returning to London to lead a conference of European leaders focusing on Ukraine. Rumors are circulating that he may soon revisit the United States alongside his newfound friend Macron.
After all the disappointments and setbacks of Labour’s first six months in power, the belief is growing in some quarters that the PM may not be a dud after all. A few even dare to hope that this could be his ‘Falklands moment’.
Before Argentina invaded the Falklands in April 1982, then PM Margaret Thatcher and the Tories were languishing in the polls. When British troops triumphantly retook the islands, Thatcher’s popularity soared, and she went on to win an election comfortably the following year.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer gives Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky a warm welcome to Lancaster House in London for a European leaders’ summit
Sir Keir gathered a ‘coalition of the willing’ amid fears Donald Trump will abandon the continent
Mr Zelensky, Sir Keir and France’s president Emmanuel Macron discuss peace in Ukraine
Well, I don’t want to pour a bucket of cold water over Sir Keir’s head. Credit where credit is due. But I doubt his political fortunes are about to miraculously improve.
In the first place, victory is not achievable for Britain in Ukraine as it was in the Falklands War. At best there will be an uneasy peace after a sell-out of Ukraine. A small number of British troops may find themselves in a peacekeeping role, where they could be vulnerable to a Russian attack.
There is an even more important reason for doubting that Starmer and Labour are going to pull off an amazing political recovery. It is that severe problems are piling up at home, and in many cases getting worse.
In April 1982, Thatcher had been in office for nearly three years. Rampant trade unions hadn’t yet been tamed, but their excessive power was beginning to be curtailed. The economy was showing some signs of recovery and the inflation rate was starting to come down. There was cause for hope.
Not so now, I fear. Wherever one looks – at the economy or the NHS or illegal immigration or almost anywhere you choose – the prospects for this country are grim.
And yet our roving Prime Minister seems unwilling to address these problems with the enthusiasm and energy he brings to foreign affairs. He is in fact never happier than when travelling abroad, and his greatest joy seems to be to hobnob with other leaders at international get-togethers.
In the first five months of his premiership, he was out of this country for more than a month, visiting ten countries once, and three countries three times. He has barely slowed down since. Efforts to try to bring some kind of peace in Ukraine will probably take him away from our shores even more.
Sir Keir is in his element strutting on the international stage. Last year he was asked which location he preferred: Westminster or Davos? He replied ‘Davos’ – the Swiss ski resort where every January the good and the great gather to network and pontificate. Westminster, he complained, was ‘too constrained… a tribal shouting place’.
But it is in the ‘tribal shouting place’ that the nation’s mounting problems have to be addressed. It is there that the destiny of our country is forged.
On Tuesday, while Sir Keir was probably on the phone to Donald or Emmanuel or Volodymyr, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner unveiled the most retrograde pro-union laws seen in this country for more than half a century.
After listening to the unions, and ignoring the pleas of employers, Ms Rayner has toughened up the Employment Rights Bill, which will entitle staff to yet more perks (such as sick pay at 80 per cent of normal weekly earnings for 1.3 million people on low wages) while making strikes ever more likely.
Tory laws will be repealed so that walkouts will be allowed even when fewer than half of union members vote in ballots and under 40 per cent support strike action.
Last autumn, the Government’s own ‘impact assessment’ reckoned that the cost of its new measures on businesses would be up to £5 billion a year. Now that ‘Big Ange’ has come up with further inducements for trade unionists, that amount could be higher.
Employers are facing a tax hike of £28 billion in their National Insurance contributions next month, which will almost certainly drive some smaller companies out of business. Then along comes Angela Rayner with a new set of swingeing costs.
What kind of Prime Minister allows his deputy to do this? Probably a distracted one. Maybe one who is frightened to stand up to Ange. And one who is daft enough to believe, as Ms Rayner absurdly contends, that these measures will increase productivity.
Meanwhile, as Sir Keir contemplates his next trip to Washington or Paris, the economy lurches from bad to worse. The £10 billion the Office for Budget Responsibility said last autumn that Rachel Reeves had to spare has disappeared because of factors such as higher inflation and borrowing costs.
The Chancellor is reportedly planning modest cuts to welfare and other departments, which are long overdue, but we can be sure that sooner or later she is going to come back with demands for more tax rises.
And where is her much vaunted economic growth, on which she has staked her reputation and that of the Government? Non-existent.
Consider other problems that are stacking up while Sir Keir fiddles. In the four days from last Saturday to Tuesday, 1,168 people crossed the Channel in small boats. This means that 26,466 migrants have made it to Britain since the election, an increase of 26 per cent on the equivalent period in 2023-24.
The truth is that, although he’s good at waffle, Sir Keir has no convincing plans to deter illegal immigrants. And so the numbers are likely to continue to rise.
Look too at our dysfunctional NHS, given a boost of £22 billion in last autumn’s Budget. Much of this will doubtless disappear without trace. According to the Office for National Statistics, the NHS is 18.5 per cent less efficient than before the pandemic. These are catastrophic figures.
Prisons are overflowing, courts are jammed up, fatal stabbings occur almost daily in London and other cities, and many ordinary crimes go unsolved. We’re in a mess, and in many respects the mess is getting worse.
Despite his gallivanting around the world and his international telephone calls, I don’t expect Sir Keir Starmer will make much of a contribution to a peace settlement in Ukraine, which is likely to be a dishonourable one.
But while he plays the global statesman, the rest of us have to live in dejected, unhappy Britain. It is a country in which our peripatetic Prime Minister is showing less and less interest.
