Florida special elections make Republicans nervous as they aim to widen their slim majority

Florida voters are participating in elections on Tuesday to select new House members to take the place of the GOP congressman chosen for President Trump’s Cabinet.

The election results will not change the balance of power in the House, but they will impact whether Republicans have a bit more space to operate.

The House GOP currently has a razor-thin majority as they work to enact Trump’s ambitious agenda with 218 members to Democrats’ 213 members. 

Voters in Florida have the responsibility of deciding who will occupy the vacancies left by Mike Waltz, Trump’s former National Security Adviser, who previously held the seat for the state’s 6th Congressional District.

Waltz is at the center of the White House’s Signal controversy after he inadvertently added a reporter into a sensitive group chat about Yemen strikes. 

Voters in Florida’s 1st Congressional District will also be casting ballots to fill the seat vacated by former Congressman Matt Gaetz. 

He immediately stepped down after being nominated for attorney general last year, but he later pulled his name from consideration. 

While both districts are considered Republican strongholds, Democrats have been investing time and money in the races which are the first House contests to take place since Trump started his second term. 

It comes as the White House pulled the nomination of GOP Congresswoman Elise Stefanik for U.S. ambassador to the U.N. last week due to the close House majority. Trump on Monday shared an update on the Florida races ahead of the special elections. 

‘I guess the one is in good shape, but the other is a little bit close,’ the president said. 

He called both Republican Florida candidates ‘good’ but said they wanted to be careful.

Even closing the gap in the two districts would be seen as a good sign for Democrats looking ahead after the brutal 2024 results. 

Here’s who is running in both special elections:  

1st Congressional District

In Florida’s 1st Congressional District, Republican Jimmy Patronis is running against Democrat Gay Valimont to replace Gaetz. 

The district includes the far western part of the Florida panhandle including Pensacola. 

Gaetz won the district in November with 66 percent of the vote to Valimont’s 34 percent. 

Patronis is the state’s chief financial officer, a position he has held since 2017. He has also previously served on the Florida Public Service Commission and in the state legislature. 

He was endorsed by Trump in the crowded Republican primary in a state the president easily won by double-digits. 

Patronis has touted the endorsement and is running on the president’s agenda.

Valimont, who also ran against Gaetz but lost in November, is an advocate against gun violence who has worked with Moms Demand Action and as an athletic trainer in sports medicine. 

She’s been focused on the cost of living and protecting Social Security in her campaign. 

While the region is considered ruby red, FEC filings ahead of the election showed Valimont raised nearly $6.4 million for her bid to Patronis’ $1.1 million. 

The fundraising which shows the total through mid-March is a massive cash haul for a House race, let alone a special election. 

6th Congressional District

In Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Republican Randy Fine is running against Josh Weil to fill the seat vacated by Waltz who is now serving as the president’s national security adviser. 

The district is on eastern part of the state that includes Daytona Beach. Waltz won it in November with 66.5 percent of the vote to Democrat James Stockton’s 33.5 percent. 

Fine is a conservative firebrand who was elected to serve in the Florida state Senate in November, having previously served in the state House since 2016. 

Trump has endorsed him in the race and even called into a tele-rally last week while conservative influencer Ben Shapiro and Congressman Byron Donald have also both campaigned for him despite him not living in the district. 

Fine was a backer of Governor Ron DeSantis before going all in for Trump and MAGA in the 2024 election. 

He has proposed bills this year to ban pride flags and others with ‘political viewpoints’ from public buildings as well allow for concealed carry of firearms on college campuses.

He also gained attention for a feud during which he threatened to pull funding for the Special Olympics, called Brevard school board member Jennifer Jenkins a ‘whore’ and was suspended by Facebook for posting her phone number. 

Despite the district going red by 30 points in November, Democrat Josh Weil is giving Fine a tough run in the 6th Congressional District race. 

A poll in mid-March had Weil running behind Fine by just four points and within the margin of error.  

Weil is a single dad and public school teacher who has never held public office. He’s been running on a platform that focuses on protecting Social Security and health care. 

Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed him last week. 

FEC pre-election filing show Weil raised more than $9 million for his special election bid through mid-March while Fine brought in less than $1 million. 

Election Day 

The polls in Florida are open until 7 p.m. local time on Election Day. That means polls will be open until 7 p.m. ET in the 6th Congressional District and 8 p.m. ET in the 1st Congressional District. 

The first results are likely to come in just after the polls close as was the case in the November election with results being updated throughout the evening.