True cost of UK sending migrants to Rwanda could be billions of pounds, says think-tank

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The true cost of Rishi Sunak’s plan to remove asylum seekers from the UK to Rwanda could reach up to £3.9bn over five years, according to analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research.

The think-tank on Monday said the price of the prime minister’s scheme, when upfront payments to Kigali and operational expenses were included, could be up to £230,000 per person, depending on how long they stayed in the African nation.

This compared with an average of about £55,000 over two years that the government spends on accommodating asylum seekers while claims are processed in the UK, the IPPR said.

“Aside from the ethical, legal and practical objections, the Rwanda scheme is exceptionally poor value for money,” said Marley Morris, IPPR associate director and author of the report, describing the expense as “eye-watering”.

Sunak is seeking to pass legislation, which returns to the Commons this week, that declares Rwanda a “safe country” for asylum seekers to overcome objections from the Supreme Court, which last year ruled the scheme unlawful.  

The prime minister has made “stopping the boats” that carry migrants across the Channel from France a priority and hopes his deal to remove those entering the UK without prior permission will deter such crossings.

The final cost of the scheme, if Sunak’s bill succeeds, will depend on the number of people removed to Rwanda and the duration of their stay.

Total payments to remove the 20,000 or so migrants who have arrived irregularly in the UK since last July, when legislation barring them from claiming asylum was passed, would start at £1.1bn if they left the country immediately, according to the IPPR.

But this figure would rise to £3.9bn if 90 per cent stayed for five years or more, the think-tank added.

The Home Office said the IPPR had made several assumptions and modelling calculations that “it did not recognise”. The department estimated last year that the cost of relocating people to Rwanda would be about £170,000 per person.

“The best way of saving taxpayer money is by deterring people from coming here illegally in the first place, and our partnership with Rwanda intends to do just that,” the department said.

The UK has agreed to pay Kigali up to £490mn upfront and an additional £20,000 per person relocated, plus a further £80mn for set-up costs.

In addition, the UK must pay up to £150,874 per person to cover asylum processing and integration, and contribute £10,000 to facilitate the departure of each person who leaves Rwanda.

“Every single taxpayer in the country should be alarmed at just how much of the public purse the government seems prepared to spend on these inhumane plans,” said Imran Hussain, director of external affairs at charity the Refugee Council.

The IPPR estimates were based on Home Office data and a report released by the National Audit Office, the UK spending watchdog, this month. The think-tank also factored in extra fees, including staffing, legal and escorting costs.

For the scheme to break even, the IPPR added it would have to deter more than three-quarters of the asylum seekers at present coming to Britain. There were 36,704 irregular arrivals in 2023, according to the Home Office.