Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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DUNE: PART TWO, (aka DUNE: PART 2, aka DUNE 2), from left: Timothee Chalamet, Zendaya, 2024. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Overall Oscars Commentary (Updated Jan. 8, 2025): The Academy has extended the nomination voting period by two days to Tuesday, Jan. 14, at 5 p.m. PT. This is due to the devastating wildfires in California. As a result, this year’s nominations for the 97th Oscars will be revealed on Sunday, Jan. 19.
The nearly 10,000 eligible Academy members now face the daunting task of sifting through a year brimming with cinematic achievements. From box office blockbusters to festival darlings, the race offers no shortage of contenders—and no single film has emerged as the definitive frontrunner.
Adding to the excitement, voting opened on the same day the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) announced its nominations, with “Wicked” leading the pack at five nods, including for its star-studded cast. Meanwhile, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) lineup is expected to drop imminently, further fueling speculation and strategy among voters.
The 2024 Oscar race has drawn a rich pool of films representing a variety of genres, styles, and storytelling approaches. Denis Villeneuve’s highly anticipated sci-fi epic “Dune: Part Two” has kept audiences buzzing since its release and is poised to make a strong showing across technical and artistic categories. Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutalist” has also generated critical acclaim with its sprawling narrative and powerhouse performances. Meanwhile, Sean Baker’s “Anora” has turned heads with its vibrant energy and biting humor, cementing Baker’s reputation for capturing life’s raw and unvarnished edges. With its mix of emotional heft and crowd-pleasing charm, it’s a film voters won’t soon forget.
In December, the Academy unveiled its shortlists in 10 artisan categories, setting the stage for some heated competition. Among the most mentioned titles on the shortlists are Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez” and Universal Pictures’ “Wicked,” both of which have garnered buzz for their technical achievements and overall cinematic ambition.
Final commentary will be added after the voting concludes, along with individual chart updates. Until then, happy voting.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Neon
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Director
Image Credit: Janus Films/Sideshow Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Payal Kapadia
“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Actor
Image Credit: Briarcliff Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Sebastian Stan
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Actress
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore ***
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actor
Image Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Edward Norton ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Jeremy Strong
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Roadside Attractions Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jamie Lee Curtis
“The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Mubi “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Payap Kapadia
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: ©MGM/Courtesy Everett Collectio “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Animated Feature
Image Credit: Credit: Charades “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Production Design
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Cinematography
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Costume Design
Image Credit: Aidan Monaghan “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Film Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of EFA “Anora” (Neon)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
“A Different Man” (A24)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Substance” (Mubi) ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Sound
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Score
Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios “The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Song
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Cinetic Media “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Union” (Level Ground)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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International Feature
Image Credit: Janus Films “Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“Flow” from Larvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
“Vermiglio” from Italy (Janus Films)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Animated Short
Image Credit: Origami “Au Revoir Mon Monde” (Ecole MoPA) ***
“In the Shadow of the Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Maybe Elephants” (National Film Board of Canada)
“Origami” (Mont Blanc Entertainment)
“The Wild-Tempered Clavier” (SND Films)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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Documentary Short
“Chasing Roo” (Spin Film)
“Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World” (Netflix)
“Once upon a Time in Ukraine” (Earle Mack Productions)
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (Netflix)
“A Swim Lesson” (Le Train Train) ***
Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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Live Action Short
“Anuja” (Graves Films)
“Dovecote” (LEAF Entertainment) ***
“I’m Not a Robot” (OAK Motion Pictures)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Antitalent Produkcija)
“Paris 70” (Astronauta Films)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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More Information (All Categories)
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About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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