Since the pandemic triggered a mass exodus from London and major cities, with families in search of a more peaceful existence, the real estate market has been marked by fluctuations.
Where would the new hotspot be for a rural or coastal home offering more room with a lower price tag?
Areas like Oxfordshire and the chic Cotswolds, along with seaside gems Margate, Folkestone, and Dover in Kent, not to mention the favored vacation spots of Devon and Cornwall, topped many homebuyers’ lists.
With hybrid working patterns and a manageable commute, a country or coastal lifestyle was suddenly not just a dream but an actual possibility.
This year, however, real estate agents have noted an intriguing shift in the buying patterns. This change has notably impacted property values along the south coast, which usually enjoy stable pricing.
It’s a trend echoed in the most affluent quarters of the capital – Kensington and Chelsea – where property prices have lost a bruising 8.6 per cent in value.
Changing trends: This year there has been a curious shift in buyer’s behaviour which has seen the south coast take a battering on their usually robust property prices
For growing families, who are feeling the squeeze of the cost of living and now hefty Budget taxes, are now packing up and moving north in search of space. And even over the border into Scotland.
Tom Stewart-Moore, head of rural sales in Scotland for estate agency Knight Frank, says he’s seen families move away from popular rural and seaside dwellings such as Cornwall to Scotland as it’s quieter.
It’s also a big draw for those who are able to work remotely and find they can buy property with land, enjoy an outdoor lifestyle, be near good schools and have an easy commute into cities such as Edinburgh or Glasgow for culture, restaurants and shopping.
This lure of English buyers into Scotland is borne out by exclusive analysis of Office for National Statistics (ONS) house price figures and data from estate agent Hamptons.
The data reveals that if you own a home in Scotland or the North-West, it is likely to have jumped in value – while owners in London and the South-East have seen property prices cool considerably in 2024.
To calculate the figures Hamptons took the average price of transactions by local authority area between January and September compared with the same period in 2023.
Because so few transactions take place in some areas each month, it took the average transaction price over nine months as the most reliable way to measure prices in each local authority region.
Here, Money Mail looks at the house price hotspots of the year – and the biggest losers – plus locations tipped to soar in 2025.
Scotland attracts new buyers
The top spot this year for percentage growth goes to West Dunbartonshire in Scotland. Properties in this region have soared by an average of 6.1 per cent – or by £7,940 to £138,310.
The local authority borders Glasgow to the north-west and is just a 40-minute drive from the city centre.
Mr Stewart-Moore says West Dunbartonshire offers the best of both worlds: ‘The area is very close to Glasgow so it will have great appeal to professional couples and families who are looking to have a property on the west coast.
If the buyer is from London or further afield there’s great access because of Glasgow Airport.
But you’re also close to the national park and the coastline, too. There’s something for everyone whether that’s hillwalking, sailing or sea-kayaking.’
Prime spot: West Dunbartonshire is close to Glasgow but has great locations such as Loch Lomond
West Dunbartonshire is home to freshwater Loch Lomond, Balloch Castle and The Trossachs national park.
The second-best performing area is Inverclyde, which is also within commuting distance of Glasgow and slightly south of West Dunbartonshire. Homes in this coastal region soared by 5.4 per cent to £127,370 this year.
Buyers are treated to stunning coastal vistas plus there’s a smattering of heritage actives such as country parks and castles to visit.
In fact, nine of the ten fastest growing hotspots in the UK are in Scotland – and 13 of the top 20.
After Inverclyde, it was Renfrewshire, Clackmannanshire and North Lanarkshire which saw the best growth.
Homes in Glasgow also fared well this year as professionals made the move north from the city. It ranks sixth in the top hotspots as it has seen a 4.6 per cent boost, bringing the average house price to £178,920.
Houses in Scotland’s second city are far more affordable than those in the capital Edinburgh, where the average property will set buyers back £324,760.
Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, explains: ‘Areas that were slow to recover following the 2008 financial crash have been catching up over the last few years.
‘This is particularly true in Scotland where average prices have grown nearly twice as fast as the national average.’
Plus, there’s heaps of special properties, says Mr Stewart-Moore, such as beautiful waterfront homes: ‘These just pull at the heart strings. They always sell like hotcakes.’
The abundance of land is a positive for Scotland, he adds, as homes with 30, 40 or even 50 acres are fairly common.
West Lancashire bucks scot trend
The only top ten house price growth spot not in Scotland is West Lancashire. It comes in as the tenth fastest growing region this year as homes in the area are up 4.1 per cent on last year’s prices, more than any other area in England.
Houses between January and September averaged at £237,240.
Victoria Tye, owner of Victoria Estates & Property Management in Burscough, West Lancashire, has seen an influx of families since the pandemic which has boosted the previously modest prices.
‘Lancashire is fairly rural but you’re also close to transport links and the motorway,’ she says. ‘Plus, there’s lots of good schools in the area.’
Ms Tye says most clients are families or first-time buyers, plus a swathe of cash buyers who are downsizing.
The North West has a smattering of other regions in the top 20 hotspots, including Cheshire East, Cumberland and Bolton.
Just one of the top 20 growth spots was in the Midlands and none were further south in England.
The north-south divide has widened this year. In 2023, West Oxfordshire saw a superb growth of 6.5 per cent and was the 12th hottest spot; this year it hasn’t even made the top 50.
Southern coastal towns hit hard
The biggest falls in property prices are in the south or east of England.
Homes in the most expensive regions of the country have not fared well against the backdrop of high interest rates, which have made mortgages on pricey properties more expensive.
Homes in Kensington and Chelsea had 8.6 per cent knocked off their value or £117,810 – making them worth £1,246,520.
This affluent part of the capital was also the worst performing area last year, when it recorded a staggering double digit decrease of 10 per cent.
Next is Hammersmith and Fulham where houses fell by 7.4 per cent, while the City of Westminster had a 6.9 per cent fall.
Slump: Homes in Kensington and Chelsea (pictured) had 8.6% knocked off their value in 2024 – or £117,810 to £1,246,520
Ms Beveridge says low transaction numbers in some of the most sought after postcodes in the capital can make it hard to get a true gauge on the average price but it has definitely been a sluggish year.
Most of the remaining top ten worst performing areas for house prices
are southern coastal towns. Dover, Thanet (home to popular seaside town Margate) and Adur, which borders Brighton, are next on the list.
Dover, which places fourth in the biggest house price falls, has seen a £20,590 drop or 6.8 per cent – and homes now typically cost £283,190.
‘Areas that were popular during the pandemic have seen prices fall back,’ Ms Beveridge says.
The race for space and mass exodus from major cities seen during the peak of the covid era has yet to quell.
But instead of moving to traditional rural areas in the south, such as Devon or Kent, it seems people are heading north.
Property prices set to rise in 2025
House prices reached a record high just days ago, Halifax data shows, but the percentage growth seen across local authorities this year is weaker than in 2023.
Last year properties in the top ten house price hotspots all had growth of at least 6.6 per cent. This year, the top spot had growth of just 6.1 per cent while the tenth fastest grew by just 4.1 per cent.
Ms Beveridge says ‘Regions that experienced substantial drops in 2023 have started to show signs of recovery, while previously high-performing local areas have seen a cooling in price growth.’
The Office for Budget Responsibility expects house prices to rise just 1.1 pc in 2025, but other forecasts are more optimistic.
Estate agents Savills predicts a 4 per cent growth in property values next year, up from 3 per cent this year, and 23.4 per cent growth by 2029. This means homes will soar by £84,000 in five years, according to its calculations.
Experts say mortgage rates edging downwards will give the property market a boost.
The average two-year residential fixed mortgage fell from a peak of 6.86 per cent in July 2023, to 5.48 per cent yesterday while average five-year fixes sat at 5.25 per cent yesterday, down from its peak of 6.51 per cent in October 2022 .
Swathes of base rate cuts were previously expected for 2025 but markets are now predicting just three.
David Hollingworth, of broker London & Country Mortgages, says: ‘House prices are so linked to mortgage rates and those have improved substantially this year.
We’ll see the base rate come down next year – even if it’s not as quickly as people previously anticipated – which will have a positive impact on buyer confidence. So this will have a positive effect on house prices.’
