How AAA predicts travel trends to forecast record-breaking numbers

DALLAS — When you hit the road this time of year, you expect to see more people than ever doing the same. 

One reason why is the work of the American Automobile Association (AAA). 

It seems like every holiday the automobile association announces more Americans than ever will travel at least 50 miles from home to celebrate the holidays. 

“This is the highest number we’ve ever seen,” said AAA Texas spokesperson Daniel Armbruster, noting that the pandemic did not break travel numbers. 

The rebound has been swift, with AAA projecting that 79.8 million people will travel for Thanksgiving in 2024.

Ever wonder whose plans they ask about to come up with those numbers? It turns out, no one. 

“We use macro-economic drivers,” explained Armbruster. “How is the economy doing as a whole? How is consumer confidence? Are people willing to spend that extra money to go on a trip?” 

AAA examines housing market data, employment numbers, interest rates and the stock market indices — along with gas prices and hotel bookings — to predict how many people will travel home for the holiday. 

But they don’t interview anyone before issuing the forecast. 

Armbruster said a third party interviews 50,000 people every month to ask about their past travel plans — and uses those numbers to come up with percentages of how much of an increase the forecast represents. 

“They’re generally very accurate,” he said. “It’s scientific.” 

Scientific — and secret. The formula is proprietary, Armbruster said, and it hasn’t generated a number for Christmas just yet.

“I certainly would not be surprised if we see another record-breaking travel period say here at the end of the year as well,” he said. 

Neither would we — although at the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter how AAA comes up with the number of travelers if you’re the one stuck in the traffic.