Insights gained from the German election that will impact the dominant force in the EU

Germany is preparing for its second change of leadership in less than four years following the recent election results. Friedrich Merz of the center-right opposition emerged victorious in Sunday’s election, marking a significant shift in power dynamics as the far-right party gained momentum and outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz faced a significant defeat.

With the collapse of Scholz’s three-party government in November, the responsibility now falls on Merz to restore stability to Germany. As the most populous country in the European Union and the largest economy in the continent, Germany plays a crucial role in shaping the political landscape of Europe.

Merz faces a difficult task. But it could have been worse

Merz’s most viable option to form a government lies in a coalition with Scholz’s Social Democrats. Together, Merz’s Union bloc and the center-left party hold a total of 328 seats out of the 630 seats in the parliament. This coalition could potentially pave the way for a new era in German politics.

He says he hopes to do the deal by Easter. That’s a challenging timeframe: The possible partners will have to reconcile contrasting proposals for revitalizing the economy, which has shrunk for the past two years, and for curbing irregular migration — an issue that Merz pushed hard during the campaign. That will likely require diplomacy and a readiness to compromise that often weren’t evident in recent weeks.

It’s still a much easier task than it might have been. For hours on Sunday night, it looked likely that Merz would need to add a second center-left partner, the environmentalist Greens, to put together a parliamentary majority.

Germany’s traditional heavyweights erode further

The Union and Social Democrats were post-World War II Germany’s heavyweights. But their support has been eroding for at least two decades as the political landscape has become more fragmented. Their combined showing Sunday was their weakest since the postwar federal republic was founded in 1949.

The Social Democrats had their worst postwar showing with just 16.4% of the vote. The Union had its second-worst with 28.5%. This is only the second time that the winning party polled less than 30%; the first was in 2021.

Geographical divide: The far right leads in the east

The far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, emerged as the strongest party across the country’s formerly communist and less prosperous east. That cemented its primacy in a region that has long been its stronghold, and where it won its first state election last year.

Other parties were stronger in only a few eastern constituencies outside Berlin. In western Germany, which accounts for most of the country’s population, AfD trailed Merz’s Union and sometimes other parties too but still polled strongly on its way to 20.8% of the nationwide vote, the highest postwar score for a far-right party.

Young voters lead a hard-left revival

While AfD made the biggest gains, the Left Party made the most unexpected. The party appeared headed for electoral oblivion at the start of the campaign but pulled off a resounding comeback to take 8.8% of the vote.

The Left Party appealed to young voters with very liberal positions on social and migration issues and a tax-the-rich policy, backed up by a savvy social media campaign.

It benefited from polarization during the campaign after a motion Merz put to parliament calling for many more migrants to be turned back at the border passed. Merz’s conservatives have long refused to work with the Left Party, so there was no prospect of it putting him in the chancellery.

Ukraine can still expect German support

Merz has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine as it fends off Russia’s invasion. He wrote on social network X Monday that “more than ever, we must put Ukraine in a position of strength.” He added that “for a fair peace, the country that is under attack must be part of peace negotiations.”

Germany became Ukraine’s second-biggest weapons supplier after the United States under Scholz. Merz has at times criticized the outgoing government for doing too little, notably calling for Germany to supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv. Scholz refused to do that.

Merz, like Scholz, has been tightlipped so far on whether Germany might contribute to a possible peacekeeping force, suggesting that the discussion is premature.

Where Scholz went wrong

Scholz pulled off a narrow come-from-behind victory in 2021 after presenting himself as the safest pair of hands available.

But his government’s agenda was quickly upended by the Ukraine war and the ensuing energy and inflation crises. His coalition became notorious over time for infighting and poor communication. Scholz has suggested recently that he maybe should have ended it sooner than he did.

Scholz sought another unlikely comeback. But too many voters, and even some in his own party, had cooled on the unpopular chancellor.