Navigating the Impact of Tariffs on Seafood Prices in the Trump Era

The upcoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump is anticipated to have a significant impact on the seafood industry, one of the oldest sectors in the United States. Some individuals within the industry believe that Trump, upon his return to the presidency, will be more attentive to its requirements.

However, economic experts present a more nuanced perspective. They express concerns that Trump’s potential trade disputes with key trade partners such as Canada and China could result in increased costs for consumers of seafood, which is already a relatively expensive source of protein. Environmentalists are also worried that Trump’s focus on reducing government regulations might put at risk fish populations that are already vulnerable.

Nevertheless, many participants in the commercial fishing and seafood processing sectors are optimistic about Trump’s re-election. They anticipate that he will once again permit fishing in previously restricted areas, restrict the expansion of offshore wind projects, and reduce what they perceive as overly cumbersome regulations. This expectation marks a departure from the approach taken by President Joe Biden, who emphasized ocean conservation and supported the development of wind energy from the outset.

The seafood industry isn’t hungry for another tariff war, which hurt fishermen during Trump’s first term, said Beth Casoni, executive director of the Massachusetts Lobstermen’s Association. But she said the new Trump administration has a unique chance to throw its support behind U.S. fishermen.

“I think we should be focused on feeding Americans,” Casoni said. “The ‘America First’ administration I think will make that point loud and clear. Know where your food is coming from.”

But the seafood industry, which is international in nature, could be seriously disrupted if Trump goes through with a plan to impose a 25% tax on all products entering the country from Canada, said John Sackton, a longtime industry analyst and founder of Seafood News. Canada is the largest seafood market for the U.S. for both imports and exports, and nearly a sixth of the seafood imported by the U.S. is from its northern neighbor, according to federal statistics published in November. In total about 80% of seafood consumed in the U.S. is imported.

Losing Canada — an especially important buyer of American lobster — as a market for U.S. seafood could cause prices to fishermen to collapse, Sackton said. And some products could become unavailable while others become more expensive and still others oversupplied, he said. He described the seafood industry as “interdependent on both sides of the border.”

In Canada, members of the country’s seafood industry are watching closely to see what changes Trump ushers in, said Geoff Irvine, executive director of the Lobster Council of Canada, based in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

“A potential trade war will cost everyone more (in Canada and the U.S.) and cause damage to the seafood section in Canada and the United States,” Irvine said via email. “We are working with allies in Canada and the U.S. to send this message to all governments.”

One of the major changes for fishermen under a new Trump administration is that they can expect to have a seat at the table when high-level decisions get made, said representatives for several commercial fishing groups. Last time around, Trump sat down with fishermen and listened to their concerns about loss of fishing rights in Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument, a nearly 5,000-square mile (13,000 square kilometers) protected area off New England, said Robert Vanasse, executive director of industry advocate Saving Seafood.

That goodwill is likely to carry over into Trump’s new presidency. And the industry feels it has already scored a win with election of a president who is an outspoken critic of offshore wind power, said Drew Minkiewicz, an attorney who represents the New Bedford, Massachusetts-based Sustainable Scalloping Fund. Fishermen of valuable seafoods such as scallops and lobsters have long opposed offshore wind development because of concerns wind power will disrupt prime fishing grounds.

“There is excitement in the industry that offshore wind will basically be contained to its existing footprint and nothing beyond that,” Minkiewicz said.

Others in the industry said they’re concerned about how Trump will handle the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the federal agency that regulates fisheries. The undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere, who is currently the Biden-appointed Rick Spinrad, will be one of Trump’s key appointees. Trump went through three different administrators at the post during his first term of office.

The industry has recently suffered major recent crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and trade hostilities with another major trading partner in Russia, and isn’t in a position to withstand unstable leadership, said Noah Oppenheim, coordinator for Fishing Communities Coalition, which represents small-scale commercial fishing groups.

“The Fishing Communities Coalition is always deeply concerned that any administration’s shifts away from a fishery management focus on conservation and accountability will do serious lasting damage to the industry,” Oppenheim said.

Conservation groups who have pushed for stricter vessel speed rules and new fishing standards, such as new gear that is less likely to harm whales, said they’re also waiting to see the direction Trump takes fisheries and ocean policy. They said they’re hopeful progress made under Biden can withstand a second Trump presidency.

“It would be extraordinarily short-sighted for the incoming administration to ignore the science and set off a fishing free-for-all that will only hurt fisheries — and healthy oceans — in the long run,” said Jane Davenport, a senior attorney with Defenders of Wildlife.

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This story was supported by funding from the Walton Family Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.