Ohio prepares as Trump administration enforces new steel tariffs.

In what experts are calling a continuation of previous actions with a slightly longer duration, the Trump administration is moving forward with its proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum starting this Wednesday. Economists are predicting significant economic consequences for Ohio as early as the upcoming autumn due to these tariffs.

The latest measure involves imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, reflecting a return to President Trump’s initial trade strategies from his previous term. However, there is a notable distinction this time as the tariff plan includes Canada and Mexico, which were previously exempted.

Ohio State University Economics Professor Emeritus, Ned Hill, who conducted research on the effects of the 2018 tariffs on Ohio’s economy, cautioned that consumers in the United States will ultimately bear the brunt of these tariffs. His analysis revealed that while a few businesses in Ohio might benefit, the majority are likely to experience negative impacts.

Steel manufacturers like Cleveland-Cliffs saw increased demand and production under previous tariffs, but Hill’s findings indicate Ohio’s auto industry, parts suppliers, appliance manufacturers, and construction sectors all faced higher costs.

“There’s a small number of industries and a small number of workers who do benefit, and a larger number of industries and a much larger number of workers that pay the price and consumers pay the price,” Hill explained.

A Harvard University study reinforced these concerns, finding that the previous round of tariffs led to a net loss of 75,000 jobs nationwide.

The stakes are particularly high for Ohio, which sells more goods to Canada than any other state — more than $21 billion worth — and buys more than $17 billion of goods from its northern neighbor.

The tariff implementation has already sparked significant diplomatic tensions. On Tuesday, Trump threatened to double his planned tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% for Canada, posting on Truth Social that this increase was a response to Ontario’s 25% price hike on electricity sold to the United States.

“I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD,” Trump wrote.

The escalation prompted swift action from Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who suspended the province’s planned surcharges on electricity sold to the United States after receiving a call from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

“By no means are we just going to roll over. What we are going to do is have a constructive conversation,” Ford said, expressing confidence that Trump would also back down from his threat of 50% tariffs.

The White House later confirmed through trade adviser Peter Navarro that the president had pulled back on doubling the steel and aluminum tariffs, though the original 25% tariff remains scheduled to take effect Wednesday.

While economists warn of broader economic damage, some in Ohio’s steel sector remain optimistic about the tariffs’ long-term benefits. Jeremy Jacobs, president of Cleveland’s Harvard Steel, offered a more positive outlook.

“I think it’s needed long term for the health of our industry,” Jacobs said. “I think there’s going to be some short term pain, but ultimately, I think it’s going to protect both the steel mills and the manufacturer for years to come. … The manufacturers, I think, have proven to be resilient.”

Tuesday’s brief escalation and subsequent cooling in trade tensions between the United States and Canada has compounded the uncertainty around how these tariff hikes will affect both economies. The stock market experienced a brutal selloff on Monday with further jitters on Tuesday as investors reacted to the trade policy announcements.

The administration points to Tuesday’s diplomatic breakthrough with Ontario as evidence that tariffs serve as valuable negotiating tools, even as they generate market turmoil.

Hill anticipates prolonged uncertainty.

“I also expect this kabuki dance over the tariffs are gonna go on through the summer,” he added. “The largest problem we have now is finding an exit strategy where the president doesn’t lose face.”

With the president facing increased pressure to demonstrate a solid plan for economic growth, the administration appears to be doubling down on tariffs as a central economic strategy. For Ohio residents and businesses, the economic impacts remain uncertain, but if past experience serves as a guide, the effects will likely be mixed — creating winners and losers across different sectors while potentially increasing costs for consumers.

As the tariffs take effect, both supporters and critics will be watching closely to see if this sequel to Trump’s trade policies delivers different results than the original.