GERMANY’S hard-right party has had its strongest showing since World War Two, exit polls suggest, taking 19.5 per cent of the vote.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) is fielding its first candidate to lead the country amid support from Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance.
Exit polls have placed AfD high in the tallies of the high-stakes election – but full results are expected on Monday morning.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at the center-right has emerged as the leading party according to exit polls, receiving 29 percent of the vote. However, the party falls short of securing an absolute majority.
The race pits the incumbent chancellor against the opposition leader, the vice chancellor and for the first time a leader of a far-right party.
Exit polls by ARD and ZDF television stations indicate that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats are heading towards their poorest postwar performance in a national parliamentary election and are anticipated to claim the third position.
AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election in post-World War II Germany in Thuringia in September.
The party is backed by high-profile US figures like Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance.
Exit poll in Germany results
THE exit poll in Germany results are in – with broadcaster ARD indicating percentages of votes as:
- Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) – 29 per cent
- Alternative for Germany (AfD) – 19.5 per cent
- Social Democrats (SPD) – 16 per cent
- Greens – 13.5 per cent
- Left Party – 8.5 per cent
- Free Democrats (FDP) – 4.9 per cent
- BSW Party – 4.7 per cent
Germany’s electoral system rarely gives any party an absolute majority and opinion polls suggest that no party is anywhere near one this time.
Two or more parties will most likely form a coalition in the coming weeks.
Whichever parties get in could shape Europe’s response to Donald Trump.
Questions remain over whether a coalition could be formed that could break Germany’s long-standing “firewall”.
The term “firewall” refers to the postwar policy adopted by mainstream parties, asserting their unwillingness to form alliances with any far-right parties, which includes AfD.
JD Vance earlier this month said there is no place for “firewalls” during a visit to Munich earlier this month.
AFD’S HISTORIC SURGE
Once considered a political outsider, the AfD has cemented itself as Germany’s second largest party, polling at 21 per cent – more than double its result in 2021.
The party’s momentum has been strongest in Germany’s economically struggling east, but is also gaining traction in the west.
AfD’s campaign has echoed Trump-style populism, with supporters seen wearing MAGA-inspired caps reading “Make Germany Great Again”.
The party’s leader, Alice Weidel, has vowed to “break the firewall” that keeps mainstream parties from cooperating with the far-right.
A protester in Berlin told NBC News that the AfD has gained support from frustrated Germans by giving them “easy answers.”
AfD’s success in September’s state elections, where it won its first-ever governorship in Thuringia and came close in Saxony, signaled its growing influence.
Now, its national rise could force Germany’s mainstream parties to navigate an even more divided political landscape.
Who are the contenders?
FOUR candidates are vying to become Germany’s next leader, each representing a distinct political vision.
Friedrich Merz (CDU): The 69-year-old leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union is the front-runner to become chancellor. Promising economic revival and strong leadership in Europe, Merz will need to form a coalition as his party is unlikely to secure an outright majority.
Olaf Scholz (SPD): The current chancellor and leader of the centre-left Social Democrats, Scholz has struggled to maintain support after his government collapsed late last year. He has positioned himself as a steady hand in uncertain times, but polls suggest his party will place third behind the CDU and AfD.
Alice Weidel (AfD): The leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany has propelled her party to its strongest showing in history. A staunch nationalist, Weidel has called for radical policies on immigration, the economy, and Germany’s place in the EU. Despite her success, she remains a deeply polarising figure.
Robert Habeck (Greens): The current vice chancellor and co-leader of the Greens, Habeck represents the environmentalist party’s push for climate action and social justice. However, the Greens have lost ground in recent months, making it unlikely that he will be a serious contender for the chancellorship.
THE TRUMP EFFECT
Germany’s next government will be crucial in shaping Europe’s response to Trump.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz previously warned that Trump’s return would be ” a challenge”.
Meanwhile, Weidel has positioned herself as a German ally to Trump’s America.
She has been advocating for a nationalist agenda that includes withdrawing support for Ukraine, lifting sanctions on Russia, and even threatening a referendum on Germany’s EU membership.
Tech mogul and Trump’s “first buddy” Elon Musk amplified AfD’s message by livestreaming an interview with Weidel on X last month.
He posted: “Only the AfD can save Germany.”
Musk’s involvement has sparked concerns about foreign influence in German politics.
JD Vance also made waves by publicly meeting with Weidel and calling for an end to the German political establishment’s longstanding refusal to engage with the AfD.
ECONOMY & MIGRATION
Germany, once the powerhouse of Europe, has struggled with economic stagnation for the past half decade.
Many voters see this election as a referendum on how to reignite growth.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz, the current front-runner to become Germany’s next chancellor, has promised to fix the economy within four-years – an ambitious goal given the country’s infrastructure and energy woes.
Meanwhile, security and migration have dominated the election campaign following a string of deadly attacks, including a stabbing at Berlin’s Holocaust Memorial on Friday.
AfD has capitalised on these incidents, promoting its “remigration” policy, which includes deporting migrants who have committed crimes.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
With 59.2 million Germans eligible to vote, polling stations will closed at 6pm local time, with exit polls providing an early snapshot of the results.
Vote-counting will began as soon as polls close, and a final official result is expected by early Monday.
Unlike some countries, Germany does not allow mail-in ballots to arrive after election day — meaning every vote must be received by the deadline to be counted.
The formation of a new government, however, can take weeks or even months as coalition negotiations unfold.
Merz is widely expected to lead the largest party, but his path to power is unclear.
A coalition will be necessary, with Scholz’s Social Democrats or Robert Habeck’s Greens being the most likely partners.
However, Merz has ruled out working with the AfD, maintaining Germany’s political “firewall” against the far-right.
If exit polls confirm AfD’s meteoric rise, it will mark a turning point in German politics — one that could have ripple effects across Europe and beyond.
