“Crucial Electoral Districts that Could Influence Peter Dutton’s Path to Prime Minister”

A similar scenario unfolds in New South Wales, particularly in Western Sydney, where Parramatta (3.72%), Reid (5.19%), and Werriwa (5.34%) are precarious government-held seats.

Heading north of Sydney to the Central Coast, the contest for Robertson becomes pivotal. Held by Labor with a slim margin of 2.23%, this seat has consistently predicted the winning party in every federal election since 1983, earning its status as a bellwether electorate.

Shortland (6 per cent) on Newcastle’s southern outskirts could also be in play for the Coalition.

South Australia is relatively safe turf for Labor given the strength of Peter Malinauskas’ state government, but Boothby will definitely be targeted by the Coalition.

Former MP Nicolle Flint, who quit parliament ahead of the last election over sexist personal attacks and a health battle with stage four endometriosis, has made a return to politics to recontest the seat.

The last election was the first time Labor had won Boothby since the 1940s, and at 3.28 per cent, it’s a marginal contest.

Queensland offers very few options for the Liberals to win seats off the government (more on that later) but the one exception is Blair.

The margin isn’t particularly tight at 5.23 per cent, but swings of between 6 and 11.3 per cent to the Liberals in overlapping seats at last year’s state election suggest it could be winnable for Dutton.

The country’s newest electorate will also be in his crosshairs. Bullwinkel, in Perth’s eastern outskirts, has been created for this election, and while it’s notionally a Labor seat, the margin of 3.35 per cent is skinny.

It’s also been suggested that neighbouring Hasluck and Pearce could be in play, although losing seats with margins up around 10 per cent would spell particularly dire news for Labor.

Tomorrow, we look at the seats Labor can snatch to bolster its chances of staying in government.