In January, there were devastating wildfires in Los Angeles that resulted in the deaths of at least 28 people and the destruction of over 10,000 homes. Recent studies alarm that this might only be the beginning of a more frequent occurrence of such disasters in urban areas due to climate change.
The research conducted by scientists at the University of Science and Technology of China focused on forecasting the potential rise in urban fires across 2,847 cities in 20 different countries within the next 75 years. Should greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at the current rate, the outcomes could be catastrophic. In a scenario with high emissions, experts foresee a worrisome 22.2% surge in outdoor fires in cities globally by the year 2100.
The forecasted increase in fires would bring about a staggering 335,000 fire-related fatalities and 1.1 million fire-related injuries, according to the study. The researchers expressed their concern by stating that global warming might lead to a significantly higher number of casualties from fires than anticipated. Currently, fires account for around 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries worldwide on an annual basis.
In their new study, the team set out to understand how these figures could change amid rising global temperatures. Writing in their study, published in Nature Cities , the researchers, led by Long Shi, explained: ‘The current impact analyses have concentrated on vegetation fires rather than urban fires, even though they typically cause more direct fire casualties. ‘The trends in urban fire frequency due to global warming remain unknown.’
Firstly, the team established a global database of fire incidents for 2011-2020 using data from urban fire departments in 2,847 cities across 20 countries. The fires were split into three categories – building fires, vehicle fires, and outdoor fires. Next, the researchers assessed the likely impact of global warming on the frequency of each fire type.
Their analysis suggests that, under a high emissions scenario, there could be an 11.6 per cent increase in vehicle fires, a 22.2 per cent increase in outdoor fires, and a 4.6 decrease in building fires by 2100. Unfortunately for Britons, the results show that the UK would be one of the worst affected countries. ‘The situation for some countries, such as New Zealand and the UK, is considerably worse, showing over 40% increase,’ the researchers said.
Under the high-emissions scenario, building fires in Britain could surge by around 10 per cent, vehicle fires by almost 15 per cent, and outdoor fires by more than 20 per cent. Based on these findings, the researchers also estimated the total number of fire-related deaths and injuries.
‘We find that global warming could lead to an unexpectedly high volume of fire casualties,’ they warned. Based on the 20 analysed countries, the team estimate that global warming could directly lead to 335,000 fire-related deaths, and 1,153,000 fire injuries worldwide during 2020-2100.
The researchers hope the findings will help to shape climate mitigation strategies around the world. ‘This study can serve as a starting point for developing climate-resilient strategies, such as updating fire standards, mitigating human impacts, ameliorating fuel management and enhancing vehicles’ reliability,’ they added.
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