Post sports gambling editor/producer Erich Richter is in his first season in the Bettor’s Guide.
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) over DENVER BRONCOS
The Browns head to Mile High this weekend as underdogs, but are the Broncos getting too much respect at the current price?
Denver’s upgrades seem to be overvalued by the betting community.
For all the improvement of the defense, the Broncos are still allowing 5.7 yards per play in their last three games, the seventh worst in the NFL.
Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the league and will rely heavily on the run game.
The Broncos are also allowing 5.5 yards per rush in the last three games, the worst in the NFL. Browns win outright on Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Chargers have been a disaster this season.
Sitting at 4-6, they have beaten the Vikings, Raiders, Bears and Jets while losing to every contending team they’ve played, including the Dolphins, Chiefs, Cowboys and Lions.
They’ve also lost embarrassingly to the Titans and Packers.
Now, the Chargers are likely to be without edge rusher Joey Bosa, leading to more defensive concerns.
Betting on the NFL?
Baltimore has the second-best coverage grade in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, and allows 4.6 yards per pass attempt, the lowest in the NFL by a wide margin.
Baltimore also allows a 69.6 QBR when playing zone coverage, third best in the NFL, a coverage scheme that Justin Herbert struggles against.
Herbert has a 66.9 completion percentage against zone coverage, among the 10 worst in the NFL.
Last week: 0-2. Commanders (L), Dolphins (L)
2023 season: 7-13-2.