THE Chinese have a saying: “Where there is danger, there’s opportunity.”
And if President Trump does not back down on his tariff threats or find a way out of this ridiculous situation, that saying will become very real.
The next few months could prove extremely dangerous but full of opportunities for the Chinese.
America’s crazy trade war with China makes the seizure of Taiwan far more likely than it was two weeks ago.
Chinese President Xi Jinping could launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan with the rest of the world unable to do anything about it.
And yesterday came the news that two Chinese soldiers were arrested while fighting for the Russians in Eastern Ukraine.
They could just be two individuals. That would be embarrassing for the Chinese.
If these individuals are discovered to be a part of a larger Chinese combatant unit following directives from Beijing, it could create complications in the complex relationship between China, Russia, and the United States.
Complete disaster
China would have crossed a line and we will have to wait to see what President Trump thinks about that.
By imposing tariffs of 104 percent on Chinese imports effective today, President Trump is intentionally disrupting an economic framework that has been in place since 1946, rather than working towards its improvement.
He is decoupling the two biggest and most mutually dependent economies in the world.
While there are mutual dependencies between them, it is evident that President Trump was aware of the potential retaliatory actions from China, which could trigger an economic turmoil in the United States.
In an atmosphere of crisis in 1930, America resorted to extreme protectionism.
Back then, the US economy was genuinely sick, but protecting American business was a complete disaster for both the US and the rest of the world.
Apart from the dreamers in the White House, everyone from business to much of Congress knows that if they stick with these insane tariff levels for six or eight months, the American economy will be in serious trouble
Fascism in Italy and Germany grew on the back of it. This time, despite what President Trump says, America’s economy is actually pretty healthy and has been performing well within the existing global system. So this is an act of self-harm.
Apart from the dreamers in the White House, everyone from business to much of Congress knows that if they stick with these insane tariff levels for six or eight months, the American economy will be in serious trouble.
Even if Trump blinks first and reduces tariffs soon, they are never going to go back down to near zero.
So, the American economy could still be badly affected, sparking a constitutional crisis in Washington.
That would give the Chinese a wonderful opening to achieve their aims elsewhere, in Africa, Asia and South America but particularly in the South China Sea and Taiwan.
The Chinese are already operating what I call the Anaconda strategy — squeezing Taiwan with more and more military exercises right around the bordering seas.
They are even coming across the Median Line that should keep the two countries apart, right up to Taiwan’s legal territorial waters.
China’s aircraft carrier, the Shandong, has been on manoeuvres there in the most recent show of force.
They are coming very close to violating Taiwan’s airspace with regular overflights, all the time increasing the pressure on the island militarily.
As a result of Trump’s trade war, China’s message to the Taiwanese is: “You can’t trust America. Why do you put your faith in these guys? Make a peaceful deal with us while you still can.”
Because America’s influence everywhere, built up over 80 years, is draining away.
And if the US is going to be plunged into a crisis for the next two or three years because of Trump’s tariffs, it gives Beijing the opportunity to strike against Taiwan.
China’s President Xi Jinping has always said that he wanted to solve the Taiwan issue by the end of his third term in 2027.
With the rest of the world now thinking that the Trump administration is a completely unreliable ally, Xi may feel that maybe 2025 is his moment.
Everyone will express anger and so on. But if the Chinese decide to try to take Taiwan, they will take it.
It wouldn’t be absolutely straightforward because a big amphibious operation across 100 miles of sea is not easy.
But if Taiwan decided to fight, there would certainly be a nasty conflict and Taiwan would almost certainly lose, unless the Americans helped them quickly.
Huge gamble
And who knows if they would in present circumstances?
It would be a huge gamble by the Chinese — they would see it as a danger — and also as their once-in-a-generation opportunity if they also believe President Trump does not really care about Taiwan.
The word is, Trump has made it clear to the Chinese that if he reached some grand bargain with Beijing that was better for America, he would stand aside and let them absorb Taiwan
He cares — as does everybody else — about the TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which produces all of the best computer chips for the rest of the world.
But he has made it clear he really doesn’t care about Taiwan as an independent democratic state or as a staunch Western ally.
The word is, Trump has made it clear to the Chinese that if he reached some grand bargain with Beijing that was better for America, he would stand aside and let them absorb Taiwan.
Of all the “Trump shocks” since he became President, this full-on trade war with China is far and away the greatest.
No one knows where it will lead, least of all the man in the White House who lives entirely in the moment and just goes with his immediate instincts.
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