Experts caution that with a powerful military, sophisticated warfare strategies, and a weakening Western support, Xi Jinping may be emboldened to take control of Taiwan.
If China chooses to invade, there are concerns that it will do so with maximum impact by employing three significant military tactics, causing immense destruction on the island.
Defense analysts suggest that the current conditions present an ideal opportunity for Xi to fulfill his goal of reunifying Taiwan with mainland China, possibly initiating an attack by 2027.
And that the West will not be able to stop it.
Trump has said he is not interested in acting as a security backstop for its longtime ally Europe.
The unpredictability of US foreign policy under Donald Trump has created fears that Chinese President Xi would use the opportunity to invade Taiwan.
Experts say the dictator is happy with a fragmenting West and the US saying it’s not interested in being the kind of security ally it was.
Professor Ashok Swain, a peace and security expert at Uppsala University in Sweden, says that China could look to attack Taiwan with full force.
He told The Sun that the US administration’s stance on withdrawing security commitments in Europe and potentially Taiwan adds to Xi’s confidence.
Professor Swain said: “The global politics has changed dramatically in the last couple of months… the way Ukraine is being handled by the United States gives a certain comfort level to Xi.
“It is the perfect moment for China to attack Taiwan if it plans to do so.”
Professor Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, added: “China’s leadership is closely watching the West’s response to other conflicts, such as Ukraine, to assess how it might react to an invasion of Taiwan.”
Military experts have long believed China is planning to use sea blockades to cut off the island – forcing them to surrender when military supplies dwindle.
Others believe Beijing will pour its forces onto Taiwan’s “red beaches” and attack on land.
US and Taiwan intelligence agencies believe Xi has ordered China’s military to be ready to annex the small island as early as 2027.
Professor Swain said if China did launch an attack, it would likely leverage its overwhelming military superiority to ensure swift and decisive action.
Currently, China has a whopping 2.1 million active soldiers and a further, 1.17 million reserve personnel in its army.
It is a stark contrast to Taiwan’s forces, which just has a little over 160,000 soldiers.
China’s naval fleet has also surpassed the US in terms of the number of ships, and it has rampantly modernised its military strategy under the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
It has become more efficient, well-trained, and technologically advanced to major nations in the world – including Russia, Professor Swain said.
China will look to use a combination of military strategies to siege Taiwan.
AIR BLITZ
Professor Swain said that China would likely combine blitzing aerial strikes to disable Taiwan’s defences with naval forces encircling the island.
This coordinated approach would aim to prevent Taiwan’s forces from mounting an effective response and limit the time available for Western intervention, the expert argues.
Professor Swain said: “If China decides to attack, it will likely be a combination of air raids along with naval attacks.
“Air raids will weaken the Taiwanese army at the front, while naval forces will surround the area [to cut off foreign support].”
China has already sent dozens of warplanes into Taiwan’s airspace and fired a barrage of ballistic missiles over the island in a menacing display of firepower.
Beijing could choose punitive attacks using missiles and jets to weaken Taiwan by targeting coastal defences, radar sites and airfields, analysts say.
“The PLA has become slimmer, efficient, and well-trained,” Professor Swain added.
“China is smarter than Russia and will not repeat the mistakes Putin made in Ukraine.
“It will likely launch a surprise and sudden attack with full force and will aim for a swift takeover.”
ISLAND GRAB
At little cost, China could seize all or some of the islands surrounding Taiwan’s mainland to gauge a reaction from the West.
Some sit less than six miles from China’s mainland, including Kinmen, a chain of islands just off the coast of Xiamen city in China, and Matsu Islands, northwest of Taiwan.
They are home to about 20,000 people.
And any response short of military support would embolden Xi to go further – like Putin annexing Crimea in 2014.
TOTAL BLOCKADE
Professor Swain added that China would be cautious not to repeat Russia’s mistakes and strategically plan to limit Western interference and avoid a prolonged conflict.
Military experts say China will start with an ever-tightening squeeze on Taiwan using naval blockades around the island – something very similar to the war drills Beijing has been conducting for years.
An effective sea and air blockade would halt valuable exports and cut off help from the US and Japan.
The island could be crippled financially, economically and operationally if Beijing extended military exercises for a longer period.
Although there would be international outcry, and more robust response is judged unlikely.
Meanwhile, Chinese forces would be able to use exercises as cover to ready themselves in the best possible positions to launch attacks on Taiwan.
Professor Kerry believes China won’t take a major step until everything favours it.
He said: “I think it’s unlikely that China will do anything unless it’s absolutely pushed into a corner. It may just wait for the time when everything favours it.
“However, certain triggers such as Taiwan declaring independence or the US recognising it as an independent state could force Beijing to act.”
EARLY SIGNS
And Beijing has already shown signs of preparations for a potential war.
The intensive work going on in Chinese shipyards suggests China is planning a massive amphibious assault.
China is building at least five of the giant troop-carrying barges, according to satellite imagery and military sources.
These massive barges are capable of delivering fleets of tanks and the 1.2 million troops experts calculate Beijing would need to invade Taiwan.
The purpose-built bridges resemble the floating Mulberry Harbours used by Allied forces during the D-Day landings in June 1944.
Beijing is also building its largest-ever aircraft carrier – capable of launching war jets from four runways at the same time.
Professor Kerry said the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be “huge”.
He added: “What an invasion or an attack on Taiwan would mean is huge. An amphibious landing on an island hasn’t been tried since the Second World War and the D-Day landings.”
Experts fear that Taiwan will face significant challenges in deterring a potential Chinese invasion.
Professor Swain said that Taiwan has been overly reliant on external support, especially from the US – and has adopted a “white elephant” strategy.
He argues that Taiwan’s defence strategy has focused on traditional military assets and hardware like fighter planes and ships that may not be effective enough to deter China’s overwhelming force.
The expert says that the small island lacks a “total defence” approach, which would involve mobilising its population to fight against a potential Chinese occupation and create a more robust defence structure.
‘NOT GOOD ENOUGH’
“Taiwan has been mostly dependent on external forces like American support and has spent defence money acquiring fighter aircraft from the United States, which are not sufficient to address China’s threat,” Professor Swain said.
He added: “Taiwan needs to prioritise a ‘total defence’ strategy, engaging its citizens to resist occupation rather than relying on military hardware alone.”
“Taiwan has a substantial reserve armed force, but it needs proper maintenance and resources to effectively counter China’s overwhelming power.”
Professor Swain suggests that Taiwan’s best hope lies in preparing its citizens and military to sustain resistance during and after an invasion, making it difficult for China to achieve victory.
He added: “Given the global situation, Taiwan should put more effort on how to fight back after a formal occupation.
“They should be prepared to fight back once China takes over Taiwan.
“So it’s a good thing to plan for how to get out.”
Meanwhile, Professor Brown says that the world does not know what China – which has not fought an international war in many decades – could do on a battlefield.
He said: “China can talk about combat. But we don’t know really what it looks like.
“What we do know is that China hasn’t had international combat experience for many decades. It has got a big army, but they’ve never actually fought and had no experience since the late seventies.
“Is it all drum beating to trying to scare people? Or is it real? We don’t know.”
A self-governing Taiwan has been protected by the firepower of ally America for decades.
But Professor Swain argues that international forces might not be able to immediately able to help Taiwan deter a potential Chinese invasion.
He added: “China has learned from Russia’s mistakes in Ukraine and will ensure that the West cannot provide indirect support to Taiwan.
“The international community won’t be able to do much.”
“Trump’s diplomatic approach may put pressure on China to avoid engaging in military conflict, as Trump has expressed a dislike for wars but he has been extremely ambiguous with Taiwan, unlike other countries.”
Why does China want to invade Taiwan?
TAIWAN insists it is an independent nation after splitting from mainland China amid civil war in 1949.
But China claims Taiwan remains a part of its territory with which it must eventually be reunified – and has not ruled out the use of force to take the island and place it under Beijing’s control.
The island, which is roughly 100 miles from the coast of south-east China, sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders.
Taiwan sits in the so-called “first island chain”, which includes a list of US-friendly territories that are crucial to Washington’s foreign policy in the region.
This also puts it in an ideal situation to slow a Chinese attack on the West.
And with tensions between the two nations high, Taiwan is likely to aid China’s enemy if it means keeping its independence.
Taiwan’s economy is another factor in China’s desperation to reclaim the land.
If China takes the island, it could be freer to project power in the western Pacific and rival the US, thanks to much of the world’s electronics being made in Taiwan.
This would allow Beijing to have control over an industry that drives the global economy.
China insists that its intentions are peaceful, but President Xi Jinping has also used threats towards the small island nation
‘WAR OF WORDS’
China is already engaged in what experts call a “war of words” against Taiwan.
Xi’s military has increased its military activity in the area over the past few years as a show of force.
This included encircling Taiwan’s skies and waters in October – holding joint drills with its warships and fighter jets on a near-daily basis near the island.
In his New Year’s address, President Xi said that the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family.
He has previously called the independence of Taiwan a futile effort and that annexation by Beijing is a “historical inevitability”.
Professor Swain told The Sun that Xi has a “soft spot” for China, which is deeply rooted in its national identity and political ideology.
He said that the despot is a nationalist who wants to be remembered as China’s greatest premier.
The expert added: “Xi considers himself a Nationalist leader who wants to put up a big image. He wants to be much bigger than Mao Zedong.
“He wants to be remembered in Chinese history as the greatest Chinese leader.”
