European officials are concerned that US President Donald Trump may withdraw troops from the Baltics, which could leave the continent exposed to potential Russian threats. A report suggests that Trump’s peace plan involves Ukraine making substantial financial reparations.
According to The Telegraph, the US is aiming to secure control over Ukraine’s strategic minerals, travel ports, and natural resources in return for safeguarding the country from Russian aggression.
The newspaper has obtained a draft of the contract, dated February 7, 2025, marked as ‘privileged and confidential’. The contract outlines negotiations covering the ‘economic value associated with resources of Ukraine’, including assets like mineral deposits, oil and gas reserves, ports, and other agreed-upon infrastructure.
This would see the US take 50% of revenues received by Ukraine from the extraction of natural resources, and 50% of the financial value of ‘all new licences issues to third parties’ for the future monetisation of these resources.
According to one source close to the negotiations who spoke to the Telegraph, the US has included a clause that ‘means “pay us first, then feed your children”.’
The US has given a total of $175billion to Ukraine across five appropriation bills passed by Congress, which Trump has long said he wants back.
Volodymyr Zelensky has previously proposed giving the US a direct stake in Ukraine’s rare earth elements, in an attempt to smooth the way for continued arms deliveries, claiming in September that American operations would make it far less likely for Russia to attack again.
But the FT reported that European officials believe that Trump is willing to agree to taking American troops out of the Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus.
European officials believe US president Donald Trump (pictured) is likely to withdraw troops from the Baltics
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin meets with the Governor of Kamchatka region in Moscow on February 17, 2024
This would make Europe vulnerable to a potential Russian invasion.
Aside from the military risk, Trump’s reported deal would place Ukraine at the mercy of the American president, who has long held sympathies for Russian president Vladimir Putin.
The deal would also see the US getting ‘a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals… for all future licenses.’
The US would also have ‘the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects.
Trump previously said that Ukraine had ‘essentially agreed’ to hand over $500billion in assets, telling Fox News: ‘They have tremendously valuable land in terms of rare earths, in terms of oil and gas, in terms of other things.’
He also threatened that Ukraine would be left to fend for itself if it rejected the terms of the deal: ‘They may make a deal. They may not make a deal. They may be Russian some day, or they may not be Russian someday. But I want this money back.’
Ukraine has not yet responded to the reports.
But Zelensky, who has long refused to give up any of the territory annexed by Russia as part of a peace deal, said this weekend that he believes Trump ‘has no plan’ to end the war in Ukraine.
Residents inspect their apartments trying to save surviving belongings and helping each other to clear debris on February 16, 2025 in Mykolaiv, Ukraine
Trump is keen to force Putin and Zelensky to the negotiation table. He seems less concerned as to whether European nations are present while he does so
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz meet U.S. soldiers as they visit airbase in Powidz, Poland February 15, 2025
Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK is ‘ready to play a leading role’ in Ukraine’s defence and security, including the commitment of £3billion a year until 2030 and willingness to deploy troops to ensure a peace deal is upheld
Ukrainian servicemen fire an MRLS BM-21 ‘Grad’ towards Russian army positions near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025
The Ukrainian President went on to say that his nation is ready and willing to negotiate, provided the US and Kyiv can come to a ‘unified understanding’ of the situation.
‘We are ready for any conversations with America and our allies… if they provide us with specific answers to specific requests from us and a common understanding of the dangerous Putin, then, with our unified understanding, we will be ready to talk with the Russians,’ he said.
US Defence Secretary Hegseth openly declared last week at a meeting in Brussels that the prospect of Ukraine regaining its pre-2014 borders as part of a peace deal was ‘unrealistic’.
‘We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective,’ Hegseth told the meeting of Ukrainian officials and more than 40 allies.
‘Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering,’ he added.
Unsurprisingly, this notion was not well received by European politicians, most of whom have spent the past 36 months supporting Ukraine’s war effort.
The feeling was perhaps summed up best by former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who sarcastically remarked on Hegseth’s speech: ‘It’s certainly an innovative approach to a negotiation – to make very major concessions even before they have started.’
In a policy paper published by the conservative American think-tank America First, special envoy Kellogg lambasted the Biden administration’s approach to the Ukraine conflict and criticised those who believe Ukraine could eventually repel Russian troops from its borders with endless military aid supplied by the West.
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan seen receiving Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at al-Shati Palace in Abu Dhabi on February 17, 2025
Ukrainian soldiers of the 93rd Brigade attend the combat drills outside of the Pokrovsk, Ukraine on February 13, 2025
Ukrainian mortarmen pictured during conflict with Russian forces in Toretsk on February 14
An explosion of a drone is seen in the sky over the city during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 5, 2025
‘The Biden Administration’s approach to negotiations has been devoid of strategy and presidential leadership,’ the paper read.
‘Biden and his team have consistently opposed any cease-fire or peace agreement that does not include a complete Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory…
‘The trouble with these arguments is that it is too late to avoid the possible consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sending weapons to an endless stalemate for these reasons is expensive virtue signalling and not a constructive policy to promote peace and global stability,’ he concluded.
It’s not clear exactly how much of its territory Ukraine would be expected to renounce under a Trump-negotiated peace plan, but Russia currently controls almost a fifth of Ukrainian soil.
Russia has also stated that Ukraine would have to relinquish control of a small amount of Russian territory its forces managed to seize in Kursk as part of a counteroffensive last year as part of any peace deal.
Should the US force Ukraine to give up some or all of the territory annexed by Putin’s troops, the next challenge is to ensure that Russia does not simply take up arms again and push for more territory months or years down the line.
For Ukraine, the answer to that question was, until recently, very obvious: NATO membership.
The transatlantic security bloc’s famous Article 5 – the cornerstone of its founding treaty in 1949 – stipulates that an armed attack against one or more of its members ‘shall be considered an attack against them all’.
Several European leaders, including British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, have said as recently as last week that Ukraine is still on an ‘irreversible path’ to joining NATO.
But the White House appears to have other ideas.
‘The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,’ Hegseth told Ukrainian delegates and European defence chiefs last week.
He later gave a half-hearted caveat, adding that in regard to the likelihood of Ukraine’s future NATO membership, ‘everything is on the table’.
But NATO operates on a unanimous voting system, meaning that the US can bar Ukraine from joining the bloc even if the other 31 member nations are in favour.
Hegseth also rounded on America’s European partners in NATO, declaring the White House would ‘no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship that encourages dependency’.
As the US pulls back from its relationship with Ukraine, European leaders may have to step in to provide support.
Britain and France are said to be discussing the possibility of deploying a peacekeeping force to Ukraine to patrol the contact line should the conflict be frozen in place as part of a ceasefire deal.
Sir Keir Starmer has already said the UK is ‘ready to play a leading role’ in Ukraine’s defence and security, including the commitment of £3billion a year until 2030.
‘It also means being ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary’, he confirmed in an article published by the Telegraph.
A man films damaged shopping centre with his phone after a drone strike in Kharkiv on February 6, 2025
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News that there will be no peace deal between Russia and Ukraine without Kyiv having a seat at the negotiating table
‘I feel very deeply the responsibility that comes with potentially putting British servicemen and women in harm’s way. But any role in helping to guarantee security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent, and the security of this country.’
A spokesperson for the German defence ministry also said this morning that Berlin would contribute to a framework that sees European troops head for Ukraine.
‘If the framework is given, Germany will not shy away,’ the spokesperson told a press conference, responding to a question about the possibility of German ground troops in Ukraine.
But not everyone is on the same page – this morning Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his nation would continue to support Ukraine with aid but would not deploy troops.
Despite some having shown willingness to put boots on the ground to uphold an eventual ceasefire in Ukraine, European leaders still insist that America is the only nation capable of guaranteeing Kyiv’s long-term security.
The White House has seemingly acknowledged this, as Reuters reported this weekend that US diplomats had sent a document asking European governments what they would need from Washington to be able to ensure that a Europe-led military force could secure Ukraine from further aggression.
