Ukraine truce won’t end Putin’s dream of new Soviet Union – Nato must act before it’s too late, ex-UK defence sec warns

NATO must splash more cash and hang permanent threats over Russia to stop Vladimir Putin grabbing land, a former UK defence secretary has warned.

Even as a ceasefire seems closer than ever, Sir Michael Fallon warned it won’t end the Russian tyrant’s Soviet revival fantasy – so Nato must make it impossible.

NATO military personnel standing in formation during a large-scale exercise.
Nato troops from different member nations training together at Exercise Steadfast Dart last monthCredit: AFP
Ukrainian soldiers firing an anti-aircraft gun near Bakhmut.
Fighting on the front line in Ukraine continues to rage, with Nato troops preparing for the possibility of their involvementCredit: EPA
Michael Fallon, Conservative lawmaker, in London.
Many fear any ceasefire deal which may be reached will not put an end to Putin’s expansion ambitionsCredit: Getty

He told The Sun that only by “strengthening Nato’s military and political will” can western democracies stop Putin for good.

Trump has made it clear since taking power he will not protect Ukraine or fellow Nato members without them paying up.

Just this week he refused a plea from Volodymyr Zelensky for more Patriot missile defence launchers, despite their relationship warming after the White House clash.

In light of Trump’s tough handling, Fallon – defence secretary from 2014 to 2017 – outlined a plan he insists Nato must execute.

First, he warned it must introduce a new minimum defence spending requirement for members.

Fallon said: “Ten years after their commitments at the Nato summit in Wales, one-third of the Alliance still doesn’t spend over two per cent of GDP on defence.

“Three per cent should be the new minimum target.”

Keir Starmer committed last month to upping the UK’s defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027.

Then, Fallon insisted, leaders must ensure the cash is streamed into the right places.

He said we specifically need more equipment, and to push “investment in large-scale capabilities”.

Nato scrambles warplanes as Putin’s nuke-capable bombers hit Ukraine & US B52s fly along Russian border in sky showdown

European nations must stand on their own two feet, he said, and stop relying on the US for security.

This means developing our own “surveillance aircraft, missile defence, satellite coverage, heavy lift and in-flight refuelling” capabilities.

And the alliance must also remember its “responsibility for its borders and the sovereign territory of its members”.

Fallon said: “Russia broke the previous Budapest and Minsk agreements, so any new peace agreement must therefore be secured by firm guarantees that it will be respected.”

Assuming guarantees are laid, the continent must then maintain a constant state of alert, ready to pounce on any Russian peace violation, according to the former minister.

He said: “Europe must be ready to deter future breaches by committing to the principle of ‘snap back’ to the current sanctions and asset freezes.”

Fallon warned that Russia has grown wise to western sanctions and strategies – and has learned how to wriggle around them.

Michael Fallon, Conservative lawmaker, in London.
Sir Michael Fallon, a former UK defence secretary, has outlined how Nato must adapt in order to credibly defend against RussiaCredit: Getty
British soldiers display the Union Jack on a military vehicle during a NATO exercise.
Britain has committed to upping its defence spending after acknowledging Europe must bolster its security capabilitesCredit: AP
Illustration comparing NATO military capabilities with and without the US military alliance.

He said: “Russia has military strength in numbers and has adapted its industrial economy to mitigate the worst of sanctions.

“It has learnt lessons from the last three years, continually adapting its tactics and equipment.”

This means that even if there is a settlement in Ukraine, Russia “will remain a continuing threat to its former satellites and other countries near its borders”, he said.

But Europe’s collective economy is 10 times bigger than Russia’s so – if we stand together – Putin can be stopped, Fallon said.

The Alliance has to strengthen its military and political will

Sir Michael Fallon, former UK defence secretary

The military expert also sketched out the best and worst case scenarios for eastern Europe in the medium term.

He said: “The best case is a rock-solid guarantee that any peace agreement in Ukraine will be properly respected and underpinned by a better-resourced Nato, including continued US involvement.

“The worst case is a temporary agreement that falls apart under further Russian aggression, with conflict spreading into other territories in the region.”

Firefighters extinguishing a fire in a damaged building.
Even after Putin’s agreement to a partial ceasefire, shelling continues to desecrate UkraineCredit: AP
Ukrainian military paramedics treating a wounded soldier in an ambulance.
Ukrainian military paramedics evacuate a wounded serviceman from the front lineCredit: AFP

EUROPE GOES IT ALONE

There is a lack of confidence in Europe that it could defend itself from Russia without the US, if Putin were to invade.

But the figures suggest we have a fighting chance.

America has a whopping 1.3 million active personnel across its three branches – counting for about one third of the alliance’s total troop count.

But it is Europe who has more soldiers, with some 2.2 million troops in the European and Canadian arm of the group.

Meanwhile, Russia is aiming to have 2.4 million active personnel in its armed forces this year.

Ukrainian soldiers firing a Mini Grad rocket launcher at night.
A ‘Mini Grad’ multi-barrel rocket is launched at Russian positions by UkrainiansCredit: Getty
NATO troops participating in a military exercise.
Fallon said that only by strengthening Nato’s ‘military and political will’ can Europe hope to ward off PutinCredit: Reuters
Illustration of UK defence spending as a share of GDP from 1960 to 2027, showing projected increases and potential purchases.

America has 100,000 troops in Europe as part of Nato and if the US were to withdraw the alliance would suddenly be caught short.

European nations have been reluctant to increase their military spending and would struggle to quickly find another 100,000 fighting troops.

And a new study said Europe could need 300,000 troops, 1,400 new tanks, and to double its spending over the next five years for security without the US.

Putin has thrown his troops into the meatgrinder in Ukraine, willing to take huge casualties for inches of land.

But Ukraine has also taken huge losses and any European force without America would need a massive army.

That’s because Nato would also miss the massive amount of hardware America brings to the table.

For example, America has some 11 active aircraft carriers and another 300 combat vessels to accompany the flagships.

European nations have seven aircraft carriers.

France has one aircraft carrier, Italy has two, Spain has one, Turkey has one, and the UK has two.

However, Russia is even worse off, with no working aircraft carriers of its own.

Fixing black holes

By Jerome Starkey

THE MoD has refused to say how it will spend its extra £6billion a year as it waits to release a review on how to reshape UK forces.

A chunk will help plug a £17billion black hole in the existing plan to buy ships, jets and tanks.

Some will go on replacing kit and munitions donated to Ukraine, and more will be lost to repairing creaking facilities and infrastructure, including soldiers’ homes.

However Malcolm Chalmers from the RUSI think tank hailed the PM’s announcement.

He said the pledge to hit three per cent in the next parliament will help defence chiefs transform “how our military fights”.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly called it “excellent” and a “great leadership step” in a call with his UK counterpart.

Afghan veteran Mike Martin said the first priority will be to “make sure what we have got works”.

When it comes to new kit and equipment, the Lib Dem MP for Tunbridge Wells said chiefs will focus on “how we do collective defence without the Americans”.

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