Russian Forces Start Withdrawing from Syria following the downfall of Bashar al-Assad

Russia has begun dismantling its military outposts in Syria amid uncertainty about its future in the region following Bashar al-Assad’s abrupt fall last weekend.

Images captured by satellite observation companies Maxar and Planet Labs showed an increase in ground vehicles at the Khmeimim air base, where Russia was permanently storing air defence systems, warplanes, and other military equipment.

Imagery showed the apparent disassembly of the Russian air defences and the arrival of several large transport aircraft, believed to indicate forces gathering to depart in the wake of the rebel takeover of the country.

A Syrian security official stationed outside the base said that a Russian cargo plane had left this morning. 

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times: ‘This drawdown may signal a complete Russian exit from Syria, but it is too early to tell.’

Russia was one of al-Assad’s main backers throughout the Syrian Civil War, providing troops and vital air support from 2015 to push back advancing rebels and shore up support for the Ba’athist dictator.

But the fate of the country in Syria remains in the air. Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s deputy foreign affairs minister, assured earlier this week that they were having ‘constructive’ talks with the main rebel group. 

Well-placed sources told Bloomberg that talks are already underway to ensure Russian forces can remain at the naval port in Tartus – Russia’s only Mediterranean port – and the Khmeimim air base, although the volatile situation could still throw Moscow’s plans off course.

Satellite imagery taken earlier this week nonetheless showed that Russia has, at least for now, abandoned its naval base in Tartus since the fall of Damascus on December 8. Five warships were pictured in the port last week but had left by Monday.

Bogdanov assured that the bases had been established ‘with the goal of fighting terrorists and ISIS’, which remains an immediate threat in parts of eastern Syria.

‘I am proceeding on the basis of the notion that everyone agrees that the fight against terrorism, and what remains of ISIS, is not over,’ he added, according to Interfax.

Bogdanov stressed the importance of ‘collective efforts’ in tackling ‘the broader struggle against global terrorism’.

Russia has hit hard against ISIS in the wake of a spate of terrorist attacks, including on Russian soil.

In its bid to remain in Syria, it could offer a favourable partnership to keep hold of its two key bases.

But Russia is also providing sanctuary to al-Assad and his family in Moscow, having fled Syria amid a ‘peaceful transfer’ of power on Sunday.

Syria’s new prime minister, Mohamed al-Bashir, has hailed a ‘new dawn of freedom and dignity’ for the country as rebel leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani assured the West has nothing to fear from the new regime. 

The head of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led much of the blitzkrieg offensive against Assad, told Sky News in his first interview with a Western organisation: ‘People are exhausted from war. So the country isn’t ready for another one and it’s not going to get into another one.

‘The source of our fears was from the Iranian militias, Hezbollah and the regime which committed the massacres we are seeing today.

‘So their removal is the solution for Syria. The current situation won’t allow for a return to panic.’

He added that the West’s unease is ‘unnecessary, God willing’.

For their part, the US moved quickly to hit ISIS camps and operatives with ‘dozens of precision airstrikes’ in central Syria on December 8.

‘The operation struck over 75 targets using multiple U.S. Air Force assets, including B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s. Battle damage assessments are underway, and there are no indications of civilian casualties.’

‘There should be no doubt – we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,’ said General Michael Erik Kurilla.

‘All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.’ 

Video footage from December 3, before the fall of the regime, appeared to show the A-10 firing its iconic 30mm Gatling cannon at targets in eastern Syria.

Questions over the future role in upkeeping peace and security in Syria have been challenged by president-elect Trump, who has insisted that ‘the United States should have nothing to do with [Syria]’.

‘This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved,’ he wrote on his Truth Social network, adding ‘Syria is a mess, but it is not our friend’.

The departure of US troops could pave the way for new influence from Russia and Iran. HTS is likely to stop the flow of Iranian weapons through to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria, after the Iranian proxy group backed Assad.

Israel has also targeted Iranian missile facilities in Damascus in the wake of the fall of the regime – although launching a ‘temporary’ military incursion into the buffer zone separating the two countries is unlikely to help relations.

Russia will hope to regain control of the Tartus naval facility, which houses elements of its Black Sea Fleet.

It is also Russia’s only repair and replenishment hub in the Mediterranean, and received significant investment and upgrades in 2012.

The hub allows Russian ships to stay in the Mediterranean without having to return to Black Sea ports via the Bosporus.  

Passing the strait relies on Turkey’s goodwill, and Russia has reportedly already asked Turkey for help in withdrawing its troops from Syria.

GUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence service, claims that Russia has also been airlifting military personnel and equipment back home. 

While Turkey and Russia were able to work together to broker a truce in May 2020, Turkish forces have backed opposition groups in an effort to displace ISIS.

Turkey now emerges from the crisis in a stronger position. It already has an established line of communication – and a history of cooperation – with HTS, and is becoming less dependent on Russian energy.

Turkey was set to reopen its embassy in Damascus on Saturday, some 12 years after the diplomatic outpost was shuttered early into the war.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the new charge d’affaires, Burhan Koroglu, left for Syria on Friday, with the embassy expected to be ‘operational’ the following day.

Fidan also said Ankara had urged Assad backers Russia and Iran not to intervene as the Islamist-led rebels mounted their lightning advance last week.

‘The most important thing was to talk to the Russians and Iranians to ensure that they didn’t enter the equation militarily… They understood,’ Fidan told private television network NTV.

The sudden fall of the Syrian regime, coinciding with Hezbollah’s ceasefire after more than a year of war with Israel, highlighted the inability or unwillingness of Russia and Iran to come to Assad’s aid despite propping up the dictator in the past.

Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and has fewer assets to spare to maintain its global interests.

Questions remain over the fate of the hundreds of thousands of Syrians displaced by the war and until now taking refuge in Europe.

Britain joined Western nations in a decision to pause asylum application decisions from Syrians following the collapse of the Assad regime.

The new Syrian government has urged its people to come home and help ‘rebuild’ the country.

But many are wary of returning to a country ravaged by 13 years of war, and headed by a rebel leadership.

Refugee charities have told the Home Secretary of their ‘deep concern and opposition’ to the decision to pause application decisions. 

Urging Yvette Cooper to resume her department’s processing of those claims, the organisations said they ‘feel strongly that it is far from clear that Syria is safe for those who have or are seeking sanctuary’. 

The Home Office confirmed the temporary suspension of decision-making on Monday, with Ms Cooper saying events in Syria led to a ‘very fast-moving situation that we need to closely monitor’.

Ms Cooper also told Parliament ‘many’ claims had been made ‘against the Assad regime for asylum, which is clearly not in place’.

She told MPs: ‘It would therefore not be appropriate to be granting asylum decisions on those cases in the current circumstances.’

She added that the Government was continuing to monitor the ‘evolving situation so that we can get new country guidance in place and so that we can take those decisions’.

In their plea to bring Syrian diaspora back home, the interim government has made assurances that minorities in Syria’s diverse demographic makeup will be protected. 

Al Jolani has consistently distanced himself from his affiliation from al-Qaeda, reinventing himself as a statesman concerned with the rebuilding of ‘institutions’.

In the final days of the conflict, messages to troops published in English appeared to be looking to reassure an international audience of his intentions to rule in line with principles of rule of law. 

Interim PM al-Bashir’s allies have also highlighted their intentions to ‘establish a nation built on principles of nationalism, justice, and the rule of law’, aiming towards a ‘technocratic state where institutions are respected, and equal opportunities are guaranteed for all’.

HTS emerged from Jabhat al Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria and later fought ISIS during the war.

In 2017, they rebranded as HTS and publicly disavowed al-Qaeda.

The group is a designated terrorist organisation in the UK and the US, but this could change.

Sir Keir Starmer said this week no decision had yet been made on whether the government could remove HTS from the list as it was too early to tell. 

‘We have all seen in other parts of history where we think there is a turning point – it turns out not necessarily to be the better future that we hope for,’ Sir Keir said.

‘We’ve got to make sure this is different.’