The Minister was despondent. ‘We have to have a story to tell people, but at the moment we don’t have one,’ he admitted.
Government involves taking voters through a journey, showing them the starting point and the destination, and inviting them to come along.
But there’s nothing’. That’s not quite true. Sir Keir Starmer is currently taking Britain on a journey. But it appears to be to hell and back.
The New Year was expected to mark a fresh start for the Prime Minister after the mishaps, blunders, and scandals that plagued his initial 100 days in office.
However, the anticipated ‘Grid,’ which is meant to guide the Government’s actions, has already been discarded due to events such as the controversial veto on an inquiry into rape gangs, financial market instability, and growing worries about the country’s energy resources.
As another Minister remarked: ‘Before Christmas, no one could see how we could break out of the cycle of bad news. But people hoped the holidays would act as a political firebreak. Now they’re saying: “When is this run of bad headlines going to end?”.’
At the moment, Starmer doesn’t seem to have the first clue. Last Monday, he was supposed to be shifting the focus on to NHS reforms.
But he allowed himself to be blown off course by Elon Musk and Kemi Badenoch’s attacks over his rejection of Oldham council’s call for a government-led inquiry into the historic abuse of white girls by men mainly of Pakistani origin.
Initially, Ministers backed the PM’s decision to confront his critics directly.
Their feeling was that Musk had crossed a line with the excessively personal nature of his attacks, and that Badenoch and the Tories were being cynically opportunistic.
But, as the week progressed, questions were again being raised about Starmer’s ability to manage the politics of a highly emotive national issue.
In particular, a number of Starmer’s colleagues believe he was guilty of three major blunders.
The first was not to recognise the sensitivity of the request from Oldham council for a government-led inquiry, especially after the tensions raised by the Southport killings.
A second, even bigger, misstep was his clumsy attempt to imply that anyone calling for an inquiry into the abuse was promoting a ‘far-Right’ agenda. And the third was ordering Labour MPs vote down a Tory amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill that would have mandated a new national investigation.
‘Keir let the issue run away from him,’ a senior Labour MP told me. ‘He couldn’t let the Musk comments pass. But he just bungled his response. You can’t say that worrying about the rape of young girls is “far-Right”. It’s just another example of how he can’t land the basic politics.
What’s alarming Ministers is that there were hopes that Starmer’s performance would start to improve as he began to settle into his role. The feeling was that he had been so focused on the rhythms of opposition, where his sole strategy was to present as small a target as possible to the Tories, that it would take him time to adjust to his new position as a national leader. But some colleagues are now starting to question whether he will be able to ever make that transition.
‘It’s not that he doesn’t have a big vision,’ one Minister observed. ‘It’s that he doesn’t think he needs one at all. His view is that voters are now so cynical about politicians that if you make big promises, they simply reject them. So Keir thinks the strategy has to be one of slow, steady, incremental change. That’s fine – but at the moment people think that the changes we’ve introduced are only hitting them harder.’
Matters are getting so bad that some within the Cabinet are starting to talk apocalyptically about the Government entering what one Minister called ‘a Starmer death spiral’.
Their concern is that the constant diet of bad news means even potentially popular announcements will become so tainted by the perception that the Government is no longer in charge of events, they won’t receive the credit for them.
‘We’ve already surrendered the benefit of the doubt,’ one Minister told me. ‘In the first couple of months, I was able to tell people: “Look, you know what a shambles the Tories left us,” and they would nod and say “fair enough”. But now their response is “sorry, but you told us you’d make things better. Instead, you’re making everything worse”.’
Perhaps the biggest blow to Cabinet confidence has, however, been delivered by the swift and brutal evisceration of the reputation of Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
In the run-up to the General Election she was perceived as being a key Labour asset, the person whose steely credibility on the economy gave licence to wavering voters to take a gamble on Starmer’s indistinct political project.
But the extent to which her Budget has backfired with the financial markets and the business community has rocked the Government.
‘There was a lot of respect for Rachel across the party,’ one MP told me. ‘She was the grown-up in the room, while Keir was seen as a bit naive. She was supposed to be the heavyweight. Now, her reputation’s been trashed people are looking at one another and saying “do we actually know what we’re doing?”.’
For the moment, the answer appears to be ‘no’. Speaking to Ministers and MPs, it’s striking how there is little clarity or agreement about what the Government should do next.
The Starmer relaunch – some described it more as a pre-launch – is widely seen to have failed.
There are no obvious ‘quick wins’ on the horizon that could break the cycle of bad news and plummeting approval ratings. And Starmer himself seems remarkably untroubled by the fact his fledgling administration is breaking records for unpopularity.
‘Keir’s view is that only three things matter,’ one Minister confided, ‘cutting immigration numbers, reducing hospital waiting lists and getting the economy moving. He thinks that if we achieve these, everything will work out OK.’
This may be true. But the Prime Minister is fighting too many battles that are placing him on the wrong side of public opinion. Rape gangs. Winter fuel. Energy. Market turmoil. The farmers. Interest rates. Potential public spending cuts.
He desperately has to find a way to give his beleaguered MPs some respite. And, more importantly, he must give the nation some respite.
Keir Starmer has not yet entered his death spiral. But the wings have begun vibrating. And as 2025 opens, he finds himself flying without a parachute.
