In January, devastating wildfires swept across Los Angeles, killing at least 28 people and destroying more than 10,000 homes.
Now, a study has warned that this could be a taste of things to come.
Researchers from the University of Science and Technology of China have projected a significant increase in the frequency of city fires due to climate change.
In the study, the team predicted the number of urban fires that could happen in 2,847 cities across 20 countries over the next 75 years.
And if greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb, their projections suggest that there could be devastating consequences.
Under a high emissions scenario, the scientists predict there could be a 22.2 per cent increase in outdoor fires in cities around the world by 2100.
Terrifyingly, this would lead to 335,000 fire-related deaths, and 1.1 million fire-related injuries, they say.
‘We find that global warming could lead to an unexpectedly high volume of fire casualties,’ the researchers wrote in their study.
The devastating wildfires that ravaged Los Angeles in January, resulting in the death of at least 28 people and the destruction of over 10,000 homes, serve as a grim foreshadowing of what lies ahead.
Under a high emissions scenario, the scientists predict there could be a 22.2 per cent increase in outdoor fires in cities around the world by 2100
Each year, fires cause an estimated 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries around the world.
In their new study, the team set out to understand how these figures could change amid rising global temperatures.
The study, featured in Nature Cities and headed by Long Shi and team, underscores that previous impact assessments have predominantly focused on wildfires in vegetation, neglecting the more common and impactful urban fires that directly lead to more fire-related casualties.
‘The trends in urban fire frequency due to global warming remain unknown.’
Firstly, the team established a global database of fire incidents for 2011-2020 using data from urban fire departments in 2,847 cities across 20 countries.
The fires were split into three categories – building fires, vehicle fires, and outdoor fires.
Next, the researchers assessed the likely impact of global warming on the frequency of each fire type.
Their analysis suggests that, under a high emissions scenario, there could be an 11.6 per cent increase in vehicle fires, a 22.2 per cent increase in outdoor fires, and a 4.6 decrease in building fires by 2100.
Their analysis suggests that, under a high emissions scenario, there could be an 11.6 per cent increase in vehicle fires, a 22.2 per cent increase in outdoor fires, and a 4.6 decrease in building fires by 2100. Pictured: an aerial view shows homes burned in the Eaton Fire on February 5
Unfortunately for Britons, the results show that the UK would be one of the worst affected countries.
‘The situation for some countries, such as New Zealand and the UK, is considerably worse, showing over 40% increase,’ the researchers said.
Under the high-emissions scenario, building fires in Britain could surge by around 10 per cent, vehicle fires by almost 15 per cent, and outdoor fires by more than 20 per cent.
Based on these findings, the researchers also estimated the total number of fire-related deaths and injuries.
‘We find that global warming could lead to an unexpectedly high volume of fire casualties,’ they warned.
Based on the 20 analysed countries, the team estimate that global warming could directly lead to 335,000 fire-related deaths, and 1,153,000 fire injuries worldwide during 2020-2100.
The researchers hope the findings will help to shape climate mitigation strategies around the world.
‘This study can serve as a starting point for developing climate-resilient strategies, such as updating fire standards, mitigating human impacts, ameliorating fuel management and enhancing vehicles’ reliability,’ they added.
HOW ARE WILDFIRES STARTED?
The amount of land in North America devastated by wildfires each year is set to rise, according to new research (file photo)
The ‘Thomas Fire’ destroyed 281,893 acres in California in December 2017.
Additionally, British Columbia’s Nazko Complex Fire last year consumed more than a million acres, making it the largest ever recorded in the province.
But the amount of land destroyed by wildfires each year will only go up in western and northern North America in the years to come, according to a new report published in the journal Plos One.
Up to 90 percent of US wildfires are caused by people, according to the Insurance Information Institute.
These fires can be initiated by unattended campfires, piles of burning debris, haphazardly discarded cigarettes or arson.
The remaining tenth of wildfires not started by humans are attributed to either lighting or lava.
