The UK population is set to hit 72.5million by mid-2032 – overtaking France – entirely due to five million-strong net immigration.
Official projections show numbers are due to rise from 67.6million in mid-2022, even though deaths will completely offset births.
The level of net migration is projected to average 340,000 per year starting from mid-2028 – a decrease compared to the previous high of 906,000. For the current year, the ONS anticipates the level to be slightly below 631,000.
This indicates a net inflow of 4.9 million over the course of a decade. Additionally, the data confirms that the UK has surpassed France in terms of population in recent years, and is expected to be approximately 3 million larger by 2032.
Downing Street said Keir Starmer wants to bring down ‘staggeringly high levels’ of migration but will not set ‘arbitrary’ caps.
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the projections were ‘shocking and unacceptable’ and must be prevented from coming true.
On a positive note for Rachel Reeves, a think tank has suggested that the ONS figures provide her with more flexibility in terms of spending. The Resolution Foundation predicts that the OBR watchdog could revise growth forecasts due to an expected increase of 400,000 in the working-age population by 2029-30.
While births could increase slightly over the decade, deaths are also rising due to the aging ‘baby boom’ generation born after Second World War.
Across the decade they cancel each other out, with 6.8million of each, meaning there is no ‘natural’ change to the population anticipated.
The Office for National Statistics also projects an alarming rise in the older population, with a doubling of over-85s to 3.3million by 2047.
Numbers of state pension age are set to soar by 1.7million over the decade to 2032, to 13.7million people. More than one in 10 of the population could be over 75 at that point.
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the projections were ‘shocking and unacceptable’ and must be prevented from coming true
The ONS has upgraded its assumptions for net migration from 315,000 a year in previous estimates to 340,000 a year.
Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, 9.9million people are projected to migrate long-term to the UK while nearly five million are projected to emigrate.
The stats body has also downgraded the projected birth rate from 1.59 per woman to 1.45. Life expectancy for men is expected to be 82 rather than the 82.5 pencilled in before – with the figure for women unchanged at 85.6.
The overall population of the UK is projected to rise by 7.3 per cent between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with an increase of 6.1 per cent over the previous 10 years.
The number of people at state pension age is projected to rise by 1.7million between 2022 and 2032, from 12million to 13.7million.
That accounts for the planned increases in state pension age to 67 for both sexes.
Meanwhile, by 2032 more than one in 10 – 10.3 per cent – of the UK population are projected to be aged 75 and over. As of 2022 the proportion was 9.1 per cent.
England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8 per cent, compared with 5.9 per cent for Wales, 4.4 per cent for Scotland and 2.1 per cent for Northern Ireland.
The ONS also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, for which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9million, a jump of 13.2 per cent.
This is lower than the previous 25 years from 1997 to 2022, when the population is estimated to have risen by 9.3million, or 15.9 per cent.
ONS spokesman James Robards said: ‘The UK population is projected to grow by almost 5million over the next decade.
‘The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero.
‘These projections are based on current and past trends, and aren’t forecasts about what may or may not happen in the future.
The ONS projections highlight the underlying slide in fertility rates, suggesting that the population would nearly halve in 100 years if net migration fell to zero
‘Our latest projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3million by 2047. This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy.’
The PM’s official spokesman said: ‘We’re going to publish a White Paper to set out a comprehensive plan to end these staggeringly high migration numbers,’ the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said.
‘As the Prime Minister has previously said, we had a supposed cap in place before and it didn’t have any meaningful impact on reducing immigration.
‘So he doesn’t think that setting an arbitrary cap, as previous governments have done, is the best way forward in terms of significantly reducing migration.’
Mr Philp posted on X: ’10 million arrivals over 10 years is far, far too high.
‘We need a hard binding legal cap on visas issued each year, at a very dramatically low level than this.’
He said more investment in technology is needed and more UK residents need to enter the workforce.
‘This projection is shocking and unacceptable. It can and must be stopped from materialising.’
CPS Research Director Karl Williams said: ‘Once again, ONS population projections have net migration running at unsustainable levels – 340,000 per annum from 2029 onwards and accounting for the entirety of the population growth.
‘The reality may in fact be even higher given the projections assume net migration will fall from a projected 631,000 in the year ending June 2025 down to 340,000 per annum from 2029, in spite of the fact the government has announced no concrete plans to actually achieve this.
‘The figures also highlight the challenge of Britain’s ageing population, with pensioners the fastest growing age group. Even the massive levels of net migration do very little to improve the long-term picture, with the ratio of pensioners to working age taxpayers growing all the time.’
Adam Corlett, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: ‘Britain is forecast to have a slightly bigger population by the end of the decade than previously thought.
‘While the projected number of children in Britain has been revised down by 160,000, this has been more than offset by working-age population forecasts rising by around 400,000, driven by higher net migration.
‘A larger working-age population means a bigger economy, more workers, and higher tax receipts, which should deliver a fiscal boost of around £5 billion a year by the end of the decade.
‘If the OBR uses these population projections, this will be welcome news for the Chancellor given the wider economic pressures she is facing.’
