Experts doubt the likelihood of Ukraine-Russia peace deal as Trump trusts Putin

President Donald Trump this week said he is “very” optimistic that Ukraine and Russia will enter into some sort of deal in the coming days, but security experts are still sounding the alarm that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want peace.

A feeling of geopolitical whiplash is surrounding Washington after the Trump administration last week said it would abandon peace efforts if a ceasefire cannot be secured, though days later Trump said there is a “very good chance” a deal will be reached this week.

The White House did not respond to Fox News Digital’s questions about what it would mean should the U.S. walk away from one of Trump’s top campaign trail issues: ending the war in Ukraine.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt refuses to say what Trump means when he says he will walk away from peace negotiations, but she told reporters that “he has grown frustrated with both sides of this war, and he’s made that very known.” (Getty Images)

“The return on investment is pretty high,” he added, referring to the $66.5 billion in military assistance Washington has provided Kyiv since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, compared to the $841.4 billion defense budget congressionally approved for 2024 alone, a figure which Trump has pushed to increase.

A Ukrainian delegation was set to meet with Trump administration officials in London on Wednesday alongside other European partners, including representatives from the U.K., France and Germany.

Special envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly set to return to Moscow this week to continue negotiations with Russian officials, though the Kremlin has not indicated they are anywhere near agreeing to ceasefire terms, let alone a peace deal.

A spokesperson for Putin, Dmitry Peskov, on Tuesday reportedly said the issue of Russia’s invasion was too “complex” to achieve a quick fix and warned against rushing into a deal.

“It is not worth setting any rigid time frames and trying to get a settlement, a viable settlement, in a short time frame,” he said.

The Kremlin’s position has given credence to repeated warnings from security experts that Putin is not interested in securing a peace deal with Ukraine. 

“There’s no indication that Putin wants to stop the war,” Hoffman said. “That isn’t surprising. Because for a war to end, somebody has to win or both sides have to be so tired they can’t continue to fight. 

“Russia is the invader, so you have to stop them in order to have an end of the war,” he added. “The one consistent thing here is Putin is continuing to fight. His objective is to overthrow the government in Ukraine. He’s going to keep fighting until he feels like he has accomplished that goal or he can’t fight anymore.”

Damage from a Russian drone strike is seen in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on April 22, 2025. (Pavlo Pakhomenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Koffler echoed Hoffman’s position: “Putin will be pursuing the same strategy regardless of Trump’s actions; that is continuing the war of attrition until Ukraine capitulates or is completely destroyed and the government collapses.”

“Putin would like to string Trump along and will continue to try doing so,” she added.

A report by the Moscow Times on Tuesday cited sources close to Putin and said the Kremlin chief is looking to reorder the global “spheres of influence” by negotiating leverage points between the U.S. and adversaries like Iran and North Korea. 

The article claimed that Putin would attempt to get Trump to either force a less-than-desirable deal for Ukraine or potentially stop the U.S. from aiding Kyiv by proposing personally enticing deals, like allowing Trump to build a hotel in Moscow, and geopolitical wins, like securing a nuclear agreement with Iran and a “peace deal” in Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers are seen on March 8, 2025. (Roman Chop/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

Fox News Digital could not verify the report’s claims, but Koffler agreed it could be a strategy that Putin is looking to employ as the U.S. pushes deals across Europe and the Middle East. 

“He could promise Trump not to share certain sensitive technologies to these two [nations],” Koffler said. “And he could convince Iran not to operationalize and weaponize its nuclear program in exchange for Trump’s promise not to target Iran’s nuclear facilities in a kinetic strike and to lift sanctions from Russia. 

“The important aspect of all of this is to give these adversaries face-saving opportunities, which is not a strong point for the U.S. style of diplomacy,” Koffler said. “But Putin’s ability to convince Trump and Trump’s decision calculus are two different things.”