There is now a 2.3 percent probability that a ‘city-killer’ asteroid will collide with Earth in around eight years, and a chilling video demonstrates the potential consequences of such an event.
The energy released could be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT, capable of devastating an area the size of Washington, DC.
If this were to occur, an explosion of eight megatons would be more than 500 times stronger than the atomic bomb that devastated Hiroshima, which had a yield of about 15 kilotons (0.015 megatons).
The shocking video was created by Alvaro Gracia Montoya, who specializes in 3D animation under the name MetaBallStudios.
It shows a space rock the size of the Statue of Liberty burning as it falls out of the sky and then landing in New York City with astonishing force.
The explosive blast created by the impact quickly engulfs and destroys the entire city.
The size of this theoretical asteroid is comparable to that of Asteroid YR4, a celestial body that astronomers have been carefully observing since its discovery due to the slim possibility of a direct impact with Earth on December 22, 2032.
When NASA telescopes first spotted YR4 in December 2024, astronomers determined it had about a 1.2 percent of hitting Earth. But now, the odds have nearly doubled, according to a recent NASA update.
This may seem alarming, but astronomer and professor of planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Richard P Binzel previously told DailyMail.com that slight changes like this are nothing to worry about.
‘We can expect the probability numbers to wobble around a bit. This is simply how scientific data measurements play out,’ he said.
Other experts have emphasized that a 2.3 percent chance of impact means that there is also a 97.9 percent chance that YR4 will completely miss our planet.
When it makes its close approach in 2032, it will come within approximately 66,000 miles of Earth, which gives it a lot of wiggle room to pass us by.
Even so, this visualization of the damage YR4 could cause has taken the internet by storm.
Online reactions reported by SWNS have included: ‘I guarantee they are already building bunkers underground’ and ‘That won’t happen because obviously Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck are going to go up there, drill a hole in the side and nuke it.’
But in the unlikely event that it does hit Earth, its impact might not look exactly like the horrifying scenario played out in the animated asteroid strike video. In fact, it may not even reach the planet’s surface.
Alternatively, it could explode in mid air in what’s known as an ‘air burst,’ like the Tunguska asteroid did in 1908.
That space rock was about the same size as YR4, and caused the most explosive impact in recorded history when it blew up over Siberia.
The force of the blast was equivalent to detonating 50 million tons of TNT. It flattened an estimated 80 million trees over 830 square miles of forest and reportedly killed three people.
Experts say it’s possible that YR4 could cause a similar event, they need more information about the asteroid’s size, composition and internal structure to understand how its impact might unfold.
As the asteroid moves closer, astronomers should be able to perform more detailed observations that can help them understand exactly how big 2024 YR4 is, what it’s made of and how it’s put together.
In further contrast with the video, it’s also unlikely that YR4 would make landfall in New York City, or anywhere else in the US.
Based on preliminary data, astronomers have calculated its current ‘risk corridor,’ or the geographical area where the asteroid is most likely to hit.
This zone runs from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa, then across the Arabian Sea and India.
Although US cities are excluded from the risk corridor, there are plenty of other densely populated human communities within this area.
Furthermore, experts say this potential impact zone is subject to change as astronomers gather new observations and make more accurate orbit calculations.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted by a NASA-funded project called the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, or ATLAS, which uses four ground-based telescopes to scan the whole sky several times a night looking for moving objects.
On December 27, 2024, an ATLAS telescope located in Rio Hurtado, Chile detected the space rock roughly 27 million miles away.
Shortly after it was discovered, automated asteroid warning systems determined that the object will make a close approach to Earth in about eight years.
This space rock is rated a three on the Torino risk scale, a tool for categorizing potential Earth impact events.
A score of three means 2024 YR4 warrants attention from astronomers because it is likely to have a close encounter with Earth and it has a chance of impact over one percent.
It’s a scale from zero to 10, with higher numbers indicating a greater risk of impact.
Most Near Earth Objects never reach higher than two on the scale.
Over the next eight years, astronomers will be watching YR4 closely to monitor the risk it poses to our planet. The race to learn as much about it as we can is on.
