If you only knew about boy bands and Samsung in modern South Korea, then the recent attempted coup by its own president might have surprised you.
But those with longer memories will know that this peaceable, consumer-obsessed democracy has shallow foundations.
Up until the late 1980s, the southern part of the Korean peninsula was a dictatorship. Even now, it is filled with tension and weapons, housing 28,500 American soldiers and the largest US base overseas.
Recently, President Yoon Suk Yeol has not only brought up troubling memories but also sparked instability by declaring martial law at midnight.
The immediate crisis was defused when – following mass protests by South Korea’s people and politicians – President Yoon reversed his decision.Â
He did so within a matter of hours. But what has been done cannot be reversed.Â
The illusion of stability in Seoul has been shattered and that means Americans should sit up and take notice: the importance of the Korean peninsula to the US and its allies cannot be overstated.
South Korea sits on the front line of Washington’s defensive ring in East Asia, the anchor of a network of US bases monitoring China’s ambitions in the region – not to mention the activities of North Korea, the nuclear-armed hermit kingdom across the border.
The southern half of the Korean peninsula remained a dictatorship until as recently as the late 1980s. Even today, it bristles with tension and weaponry, home to 28,500 American troops and the largest US base outside the States. Now, President Yoon Suk Yeol has unleashed not just troubling memories, but dangerous forces of instability with his declaration of martial law.
The immediate crisis was defused when – following mass protests by South Korea’s people and politicians – President Yoon reversed his decision.
For decades, a modern conflict on the Korean peninsula was thought so likely that it was a standard scenario in military planning for the outbreak of a Third World War.
Today, we face the real risk that the continuing chaos will trigger intervention from the North and, ultimately, a response from America, Seoul’s guarantor of protection since the cessation of the 1950-53 Korean war.
Pyongyang, which rarely misses an opportunity to provoke the South, might content itself with aggressive military maneuvers and rocket launches, as at present.
But North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un could also try to exploit his neighbor’s divisions with sabotage, cyber-attacks and other measures short of a repeat of the North’s invasion in 1950.
Any subsequent military reply from South Korea would threaten to pull the US into the conflict.
Although the South has a large military of its own, it very much relies on America’s huge presence and its base at Dongducheon, 40 miles north of Seoul, to guarantee protection.
And that makes US troops a target, too.
For all North Korea’s saber rattling with the missile launches and nuclear tests of recent years, there had at least been a consensus that Pyongyang would never risk a suicidal showdown with a rich, stable and democratic South Korea.
But no longer.
North Korea, China and Russia are increasingly looking to assert themselves in the north-east Pacific. This is, make no mistake, a dangerous moment.
South Korea was in political and economic turmoil even before President Yoon’s disastrous intervention.Â
Washington, meanwhile, is distracted by the White House transition and the paralysis of a lame duck presidency.Â
Indeed, it is troubling that this week’s attempted coup seems to have taken America by surprise.
With a number of off-shore bases at its disposal, including on the Japanese island of Okinawa, the Pentagon has considerable resources. But it is certainly not prepared for anything as dramatic as a full North Korean assault.
It is essential, then, that Washington learns the lessons, remains vigilant and abandons easy assumptions about stability in the region.
President Yoon’s attempted putsch came as a shock to South Koreans themselves, although they were already alienated by accusations of corruption and influence-peddling against his wife and key supporters.
The fragility of Korean politics can no longer be overlooked, neither can the corruption of the political class.
Also serious is the destabilizing force of an economy under severe and growing strain as the nation’s population continues to age – and shrink.
Yoon’s buffoonish power grab and humiliating climb down are like something from a comic opera. But there’s nothing light-hearted about the dangerous volatility now exposed.
Washington will be watching like a hawk – as will Russia, China and the deeply sinister forces of Kim Jong Un.
