Key Republicans are already urging the incoming Trump administration to potentially exclude South Africa from beneficial trade deals if the South African government fails to adjust its stance on Russia, China, Iran, and Israel.
South Africa’s duty-free exports to the U.S., including products like cars and citrus fruit under AGOA (the African Growth and Opportunity Act), are at the greatest risk, which could result in the loss of numerous African jobs. The incoming administration is likely to closely monitor South Africa’s actions.
A report from the Center for African Studies at Howard University, published in 2023, cautioned that a nation seeking the benefits of AGOA’s trade agreements “must not engage in activities that undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests.”
South Africa joins Russia’s military aircraft and naval vessels on exercises, allowing Pretoria’s naval bases to be used by the Kremlin and Russia’s sanctioned warships. Senior South African military officials have received training in Moscow. At the U.N., South Africa has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sen. Jim Risch during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing at the U.S. Capitol on April 26, 2022. (Bonnie Cash-Pool/Getty Images)
Rassool pointed out that the South African oranges exported to the U.S. under AGOA enabled Americans to drink orange juice all year round, when Florida and California oranges were out of season.
And Rassool added, “Why would you want to punish America with expensive cars when the BMWs coming from South Africa are going to be much cheaper than getting them from Germany or manufacturing your own?
“Likewise, to point out that American cancer patients are receiving medical nuclear isotopes that come from South Africa.”
The expulsion of South Africa from AGOA would be “disastrous,” Renai Moothilal wrote in the Business Day newspaper last year. Moothilal is CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component & Allied Manufacturers, and wrote, “It will be no surprise if some component manufacturers close their doors. U.S.-headquartered multinational manufacturers with plants here may exit the South African country if there are volume losses linked to our exclusion from AGOA, or other forms of political pressure are brought to bear.”
Observers note there are loud threats coming from President-elect Trump himself, including a claim that he will slap a 100% import tariff on countries like South Africa if, as members of BRICS, they adopt a new currency to rival the dollar. In the other corner of the ring, South African politicians are taking a more placatory and reserved tone. The Democratic Alliance or DA is South Africa’s main opposition party. But since May, they have also been members of the government of national unity, working in a sometimes noisy coalition with President Ramaphosa’s ANC.
The Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov docked in the Cape Town harbor, Feb. 14, 2023, en route to naval exercises with the South African and Chinese Navy. (AP Photo/Nardus Engelbrecht)
Emma Powell, the DA’s national spokesperson for foreign affairs, told Fox News Digital that it’s likely the relationship between Pretoria and Washington “will become increasingly transactional, with greater emphasis placed on equitable reciprocity. This would contrast the Biden administration’s approach to beneficiation-based investment and development. There is also likely to be less tolerance for any action on the part of the South African government that may be perceived as undermining the national security interests of the United States.”
Powell added “the Trump administration is also likely to take a more cautious approach on AGOA eligibility.”
J. Brooks Spector told Fox News Digital he could take home one strong positive: “The incoming U.S. president’s often-expressed support for transactional foreign economic policies may possibly be an incentive for Africa’s nations – urged on by South Africa – to come together with initiatives offering trade and market concessions in Africa to America.”
