Ukraine on Tuesday agreed to a preliminary proposal put forward by the Trump administration that called for a 30-day ceasefire contingent on Russia’s acceptance of the terms in a major step toward ending the brutal war.
But even if the Trump administration is able to get Moscow to the negotiating table and end the three-year war under a new treaty, which several security experts say Russian President Vladimir Putin is under no real pressure to do, can the Kremlin chief be trusted?
Russia under Putin has repeatedly violated formal international agreements intended to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, chiefly from its former Soviet overlord.
From left, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi National Security Advisor Mosaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Ukrainian Head of Presidential Office Andriy Yermak hold a meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025. (Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP)
“Putin is unlikely to make any concessions as he believes he is in a strong position,” Koffler told Fox News Digital. “The disparity in combat potential dramatically favors Russia over Ukraine, which is out-manned and outgunned because Putin transitioned the Russian military and economy on a wartime footing seven years prior to the invasion of Ukraine.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on the draft of a 2024 federal budget and the planning period of 2025 and 2026, via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Sept. 18, 2023 (Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool)
“Putin believes he has prepared Russia to fight till the last Ukrainian and till the last missile in NATO’s arsenal,” she added, echoing a January warning issued by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who said Russia’s defense industry output over a three-month period equates to what all of NATO produces an entire year.
“Putin is highly unlikely to agree to a ceasefire because he doesn’t want to give a strategic pause to Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO to re-arm,” Koffler said. “He doesn’t trust Washington. He doesn’t trust President Trump any more than we trust Putin.
“He trusts Trump even less than Biden because he could read Biden and predict his behavior. He cannot read Trump because Trump is unpredictable.”
The experts argued there are too many variables that could play out during negotiations that will determine whether Putin can be adequately held accountable or “trusted” regarding future agreements.
Ukrainian soldiers work with “pion” artillery in the northern direction of the Donbass front line as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk, Ukraine, Jan. 7, 2023. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Ultimately, Koffler said, Putin will not leave eastern Ukraine.
“Ukraine has always been a red line for Putin, in terms of who has geopolitical control of it, Russia or the West. And he will continue to enforce this red line,” she said. “The only way to ensure that Putin doesn’t invade another country is to make NATO strong again, beef up force posture, increase defense spending, secure its command-and-control networks and develop actual deterrence and counter-strategy that addresses every prong of Putin’s strategy.”
