Netanyahu’s government in danger due to dispute over military service with religious parties

A deepening political crisis is challenging Israel and could potentially lead to the downfall of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition. One of the crucial ultra-Orthodox partners in the coalition is threatening to depart from the government and support an opposition-led initiative to dissolve parliament in the upcoming week.

Recent Israeli opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu’s coalition would likely lose power if elections were held today.

The crisis stems from enduring tensions surrounding military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men. While the majority of Israelis have mandatory military service periods, lasting three years for men and two for women, Haredi men have traditionally been exempt. This exemption policy is increasingly viewed as unsustainable, especially given the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

If these factions decide to exit the coalition, Netanyahu’s government could crumble. According to Segal, “The prime minister faces a tight deadline of seven weeks until the Knesset adjourns for an extended recess. He will fiercely defend his position until then. However, with an imminent proposal to dissolve the Knesset scheduled for next week, there is uncertainty whether he can hold onto the prime ministerial role until July 27.”

Dozens of protesters stage a demonstration inside Jerusalem’s ultra-Orthodox Mea Shearim neighborhood, calling for the community to be drafted to the IDF. (Eyal Warshavsky/SOPA Images/Sipa USA/Sipa via AP Images)

The bill, introduced by opposition party Yesh Atid, led by former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, is set for a vote on June 11. It needs 61 votes to pass – a number that could be reached if even a few coalition members defect.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has announced a political comeback with a new party, tentatively called “Bennett 2026.” Israeli media polls suggest Bennett would win 24 to 28 seats if elections were held today, overtaking Netanyahu’s Likud, which is projected to receive only 19 to 22 seats.