The election of Joseph Aoun as president has brought about a significant transformation in Lebanon’s political environment. Following a prolonged period of political stalemate, Aoun, the army commander, was elected by the Lebanese Parliament with a decisive vote of 99 out of 128 on Thursday.
Aoun’s presidency marks a major victory for the faction opposed to Hezbollah, indicating a decrease in the influential grip of the strong Shia extremist group on Lebanon’s political structure. Nevertheless, analysts point out that Hezbollah still wields considerable power in the nation, and the task of navigating Lebanon’s internal dynamics and international relations will be an arduous one for Aoun.
Over the past couple of years, Hezbollah vehemently obstructed any progress towards electing a new president, staunchly opposing Aoun’s candidacy. However, as circumstances evolved and the situation in Syria shifted with Assad’s removal, Hezbollah was compelled to acquiesce to Aoun’s presidency, solidifying his position as the country’s leader.
“Hezbollah had been opposed to his election for the last two and a half years and had blocked any process toward electing a president for all that time. Now, they’ve voted for him in the second round, which indicates they are in a bind, that they are weaker, and their leverage is not what it was,” Vice President for International Engagement at the Middle East Institute Paul Salem told Fox News Digital.
An updated graphic detailing the members of Hezbollah’s leadership who have been eliminated by the Israeli Defense Forces. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)
However, Schenker, who is currently the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, cautioned that Aoun’s position as president does not grant him absolute power in Lebanon’s political system. “The president is not the most powerful position in Lebanon. The key position will be the prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Aoun will show the same courage in his new role that he demonstrated as chief of staff,” Schenker noted.
Though Hezbollah has been militarily weakened by recent Israeli campaigns and the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, among other key leaders, it still retains significant influence, particularly in southern Lebanon. However, Schenker says the organization’s ability to intimidate Lebanon’s population is diminishing. “Hezbollah isn’t the force it was. It can still reactivate its killing machine if needed, but it no longer dominates the way it did before,” he said.
“Hezbollah has calculated that they’ve lost this battle against Israel, and then they lost another battle in Syria. So their interest now is to lay low, have a president and government that’s acceptable to the U.S. and the region, which, at the end of the day, they hope will protect them from any further Israeli incursions and help their people,” Salem explained. “They need a functioning government to secure international aid for the millions displaced by their actions in southern Lebanon. It’s about survival for them, not just politically, but financially.”
Hezbollah terrorists form a human barrier during the funeral procession of slain top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Aug. 1, 2024. (Photo by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP via Getty Images)
Aoun’s election is not only significant for Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon, but also for the country’s relations with external powers like the U.S. and Israel. Lebanon has faced economic collapse, with its currency devalued by over 99%, and nearly 80% of the population now living below the poverty line. Hezbollah’s previous resistance to international pressure now seems less tenable.
The U.S. has long supported Lebanon’s military and is expected to strengthen its ties with Aoun, given his role in the army and his pro-sovereignty stance. Schenker said that Lebanon’s future alignment with the U.S. and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia could provide the country with much-needed international support.
Lebanese cabinet ministers applaud the newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, standing at the top, as he gives his first speech at Parliament after being sworn in as president in Beirut on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
“The U.S. military has been close to the Lebanese military for many years,” Salem told Fox News Digital. “That has been the strongest link between the U.S. and Lebanon. So to have the head of the military come to power, he’s a known figure in Washington. He’s known to the military, and now, he’s known to the diplomats and politicians, and will be known to President Trump and others over time. This realignment could put Lebanon on a much more natural path of cooperation with the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and other regional allies.”
Israel will also be closely monitoring Aoun’s presidency. Schenker said that Aoun’s commitment to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for disarmament in southern Lebanon, could lead to a more cooperative stance from Lebanon toward Israel. “Israel will be invested in Lebanon’s implementation of 1701,” Schenker said. “Aoun’s stance will influence Israel’s position toward Lebanon, as the Trump administration has clearly signaled a desire to end the wars in the region.”
