Azerbaijan Airline Crash Was Most Likely Caused by a Russian Missile

A plane from Azerbaijan Airlines crashed at Aqtau Airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Wednesday. Out of the 67 passengers and crew on board, 28 have been reported as survivors. It is believed that the aircraft sustained critical damage from a Russian surface-to-air missile, leading to the crash.

The flight, Azerbaijan Airlines JS-8243, took off from Baku International Airport at 7:55 local time bound for Grozny Airport in Russia’s Chechen Republic. The journey was supposed to take approximately an hour, with the scheduled arrival time at 8:03 local time.

As the aircraft approached Grozny, its navigation was “exposed to strong and spoofing.” Due to fog in Grozny, the plane was diverted to ’s Uytash Airport in Dagestan, Russia, which is 95 miles east of Grozny.

Grozny was under drone attack on Wednesday as JS-8243 approached. 

GPS spoofing and jamming have been used by the Russians before, and it would be a logical part of any defense against long-range drone attack; see

Sometime after the plane was diverted to Uytash Airport, it was again diverted to Aqtau Airport. No reason was given, but the same ground fog that scrubbed the Grozny landing was probably in effect at Uytash Airport. 

Shortly after the aircraft crossed the coast of the Caspian Sea, the crew reported a heavy impact on the fuselage. That report was quickly followed by the aircraft signaling an emergency by sending a 7700 transponder code and requesting permission for an emergency landing because of failure of control systems. This is the radar plot and it does look like something is wrong.

As the plane arrived at Aqtau Airport, it was caught on video.

Initially, the Russian equivalent of the FAA floated the story that the aircraft was the victim of a birdstrike. The wreckage and survivor testimony quickly shot that story down.

The fuselage skin showed puncture damage on the port side and exit damage on the starboard side with an upward angle.

The Russian fallback position became an engine explosion that led to a loss of control. But as you can see on the crash video, both engines appear perfectly intact.

Because some passengers survived, we have testimony and video from inside the aircraft.

Now the Russians have moved on to two alternative theories. First, Flight JS-8243 was hit by a Ukrainian drone. This seems unlikely due to the location (over the Caspian Sea) and the speed and altitude differential between JS-8243 and what we know about long-range Ukrainian drones. The second is a play on the “she was wearing her skirt too damned short” excuse for the invasion of Ukraine. In this one, yes, Russia shot down JS-8243, but it was Ukraine’s fault because it was attacking a Russian airport.

Don’t look for a detailed investigation of this incident.

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