What is the risk level of Iran targeting US bases in the Middle East?

Iran has accused the U.S. of being a supporter of Israel, and in response to attacks on its nuclear and military facilities as well as top officials by Jerusalem, it has warned that the U.S. will bear the consequences. There are growing concerns over potential retaliation against U.S. bases in the vicinity of Iran following these strikes.

The U.N. Mission to Iran has expressed its condemnation of the recent attacks to the United Nations Security Council. These strikes resulted in the deaths of four military commanders, an Iranian official who was allegedly involved in nuclear negotiations with the U.S., and two nuclear scientists. The Mission also criticized Israel’s actions in the region, stating that they pose a significant threat to global security.

Prior to these events, Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh issued a warning that if Israel were to launch another direct attack on Iran, the country would retaliate by targeting U.S. bases in the Middle East. This threat comes just before a scheduled meeting between Washington and Tehran in Oman to discuss nuclear talks.

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

The U.S. military has at least 19 sites spread across the region, eight of which are considered to be permanent, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. 

These sites are located in countries that border or are geographically near Iran, including Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. 

But Iran’s lack of immediate defensive response to Israel’s Thursday night strike has prompted questions over whether Tehran would be able to pick a fight with the U.S. and create a third front. 

A United States Air Force cargo plane maneuvers on the runway after it landed at the Incirlik Air Base, on the outskirts of the city of Adana, southeastern Turkey, Wednesday, July 29, 2015. (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel) (The Associated Press)

“Given the fact that in January 2020, Iran launched short-range, precision strike ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq for killing Qasem Soleimani – the regime’s chief terrorist – this is not a theoretical exercise,” Iran expert with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Benham Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. “The regime has proven an ability to land blows at these bases before.

“It is possible, and it’s not theoretical, given that the regime has done this in the past and lived to tell the tale,” he added. 

Ben Taleblu said he believes that Iran, at this moment, is looking to make sure the U.S. is not only uninterested in engaging in direct conflict against Tehran, but could even distance itself from Israel.

U.S. Army soldiers train at al-Asad air base in Western Iraq.  (Source: U.S. Army )

“There is a political element to the regime continuously threatening America, which is to try to take advantage of the desire for de-escalation that exists in America,” the expert added. “To try to put as much daylight between America and Israel as possible, and to turn America from an ally or partner of Israel, into just observer of yet another Middle East crisis. 

“This is how Tehran is politically, trying to put America on the sidelines when militarily, it might struggle – militarily, it would struggle,” Ben Taleblu added.