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Here are some more tables from the Survation poll in Hartlepool. The data tables are here (pdf).
NEW – Hartlepool leadership ratings:
Johnson / Starmer
Net Rating: +23% (+4) / -18% (-4)
Favourable 51% (+2) / 22% (-2)
Unfavourable 28% (-2) / 40% (+2)
NEW – Hartlepool phone poll party ratings:
Net Rating: +15% / -14%
Favourable 46% / 31%
Unfavourable 31% / 45%
NEW – Hartlepool phone poll. Best Prime Minister:
Keir Starmer 33%
Don’t know 26%
The Conservative party appear to be attracting the lion’s share of the (28%) in Hartlepool who cast a vote for the Brexit party in 2019 . Now renamed Reform UK, just 1% of the voters we spoke to intend to vote for the newly named party. Only 8% of those we spoke with said they had a favourable view of party leader Richard Tice, while 14% said they either didn’t know their view or had not heard of (39%) Nigel Farage’s replacement as party leader – despite his insurgent candidacy in this seat. While a fairly small sample, 77% of those we spoke to that remembered voting for the Brexit party in 2019 say they will now vote for the Conservatives, vs only 5% planning to cast a vote for Labour.
In terms of prior voter retention, the Conservatives are maintaining their 2019 voters better than Labour, 85% of those that voted Conservative in 2019 said they will vote for the party again, while a smaller number – 73% of Labour’s 2019 voters say they will stay with the party.
Good morning. There are now less than 48 hours to go until polling opens for “Super Thursday”, a bumper day of elections in which every adult in Britain will get the chance to vote for either the Scottish parliament, the Welsh Senedd, city or metro mayors, councils (the local elections combine this year’s and last year’s, which were cancelled because of coronavirus), the London assembly, police and crime commissioners – or a new MP in Hartlepool.
Political parties will perform better in some of these elections than in others, but attention is likely to focus overall on Scotland, and on whether Labour is making any sort of comeback under Sir Keir Starmer, and in relation to the second question, the result in Hartlepool will be crucial. It will also be the only major result available on Friday morning (most of the counting is on Friday and Saturday), which means it will frame the narrative going into the weekend.
New Hartlepool phone poll:
J Mortimer, Con 50% (+1)
P Williams, Lab 33% (-9)
T Walker, Ind 6% (+4)
S Lee, Ind 6% (+6)
R Featherstone, Grn 3% (+2)
A Hagon, LD 1% (-)
J Prescott, RFM 1% (-)
Well, I hope we won’t lose Hartlepool, we’re fighting for every vote there and I know that every vote has to be earned and that’s why I’ve been in Hartlepool three times in the campaign and we’ve got teams on the ground.
My job as Labour leader was to rebuild the Labour party out of that devastating loss in 2019 and put us in a position to win the next general election.