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The chancellor has said he “is willing to do what it takes” and increase support for households if energy bills rise again this autumn.

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In an interview with Sky News, Jeremy Hunt was asked if he could guarantee he would step in if energy bills start rising again.

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Hunt says:

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We’ve shown in the past that where they are acute pressures that people face unexpectedly, we want to do everything we can to help families.

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Hunt says he doesn’t want to predict how energy prices will develop. The government doesn’t expect a repeat of last year’s price surge, but it doesn’t know that for sure.

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The chancellor said:

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“All I can say is that I think I’ve demonstrated in the autumn statement, and the spring budget where I extended the energy price guarantee for another three months, funded in part by a windfall tax on the oil companies, that we are willing to do what it takes.”

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Hunt was speaking after Ofgem lowered its energy price cap, to a level where average bills will be £2,074 a year from July, down from the £2,500 level in Hunt’s energy price guaranteee.

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But as we covered earlier, Ofgem’s CEO told MPs this morning that it would only take one major hit to supplies, or a jump in demand, to push gas prices up.

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And charities have warned that over 6 million households will still be in fuel poverty, even once the cost of gas and electricity falls in July.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells Sky News he is willing to do what it takes to help people with energy prices

For more on this and other news visit https://t.co/NEDMP2uP6W

&mdash; Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 25, 2023

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Credit rating agency DBRS Morningstar has put its rating for the United States on review for a downgrade on Thursday over Washington’s haggling over its borrowing limits.

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The move comes less than 24 hours after Fitch, one of the big three rating agencies, issued a similar warning over the US debt ceiling deadlock.

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DBRS said in a statement that:

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“The Under Review with Negative Implications reflects the risk of Congress failing to increase or suspend the debt ceiling in a timely manner.

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“If Congress does not act, the U.S. federal government will not be able to pay all of its obligations.”

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DBRS says the precise timing of when the federal government will exhaust available cash and extraordinary measures, the so-called X-date, is “somewhat unclear”, but could be just days away….

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated her warning on May 22 that the X-date could come as early as June 1. Judging from the latest data on daily net inflows into the Treasury General Account, we believe it is reasonable to assume the X-date could arrive within weeks if not days.

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While we still expect Congress to raise the debt ceiling before Treasury runs out of available resources, there is a risk of Congressional inaction as the X-date approaches. DBRS Morningstar would consider any missed payment of interest or principal as a default.

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The jump in UK borrowing costs this week has forced some smaller British mortgage lenders to temporarily withdraw and repriced products for new customers, Reuters reports.

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The move, following the spike in UK government bond yields yesterday and today (see earlier post), has some echoes of the turmoil in the mortgage market last autumn after the disastrous mini-budget.

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Reuters reports that at least seven small lenders, mostly focused on the buy-to-let market, have pulled products or announced a repricing this week, according to mortgage brokers contacted by Reuters.

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But none of the major high street banks have withdrawn or repriced products this week as a result of the market conditions, they add.

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Fixed-rate mortgages are priced according to the UK government bond market, so a jump in the yield on two-year bonds, or gilts, has a knock-on impact on the mortgage market.

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Two-year swap rate – which feeds through into mortgage pricing – on track for biggest weekly increase since September 1989, if you take last year's minibudget out of the picture.

Up 51 basis points. pic.twitter.com/bJOzwC54lt

&mdash; Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) May 25, 2023

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The two-year British swap rate, for example, has gained half a percentage point from 3.98% last Friday to 4.45% today, as traders anticipate further Bank of England interest rate rises to fight inflation.

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Bank of England interest rates rising to 5.5% late this year now fully priced in by the market 👇 pic.twitter.com/gcRVzA9qgh

&mdash; Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) May 25, 2023

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We talk about the price cap in terms of its impact on typical household energy bills, but it actually regulates how much a supplier can charge per unit of energy.

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For electricity, the unit rate will drop to 30p per kWh. That’s down from a unit rate of 51p per kWh set in April. There’s also a standing charge of 53p per day.

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For gas, the unit rate has dropped to 8p per kWh, down from 13p per kWh, plus a standing charge of 29p per day.

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So while the average bill will drop to £2,074, there’s no limit on the amount a customer can be charged.

","elementId":"73b95c13-6c6d-4ccc-94e9-b3dfe7c129e1"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

[plus, the government’s energy price guarantee meant that the previous typical bill was £2,500 per year, not the current £3,280 price cap]

","elementId":"f6b7a278-cdfb-4536-8247-7fb0b513c1ee"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1685007516000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"10.38 BST","blockLastUpdated":1685008130000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"10.48 BST","blockFirstPublished":1685008130000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"10.48 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"10.48","title":"Ofgem’s price cap in unit terms","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646f2c108f0879b44af7d3db","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The energy regulator is urging consumers to “think” before they fix their energy bills.

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Ofgem warns:

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\n

With the lower price cap figure, fixed-rate energy tariffs might appear back on the market, but check if they are right for you.

\n

Prices are still unpredictable &amp; signing up for a fixed rate now might mean you miss out if prices fall.

\n

","elementId":"cdadc6e1-5b54-4148-8873-1729accfdb55"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

From 1 July #PriceCap average direct debit unit rates for energy;

ELECTRICITY Unit rate: 30p per kWh Standing charge: 53p per day

GAS Unit rate: 8p per kWh Standing charge: 29p per day

These are caps on unit rates (not a cap on total bills) and vary by region pic.twitter.com/EkUQRzrV0C

&mdash; Ofgem (@ofgem) May 25, 2023

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⚠️THINK BEFORE YOU FIX

With the lower #PriceCap figure, fixed-rate energy tariffs might appear back on the market, but check if they are right for you

Prices are still unpredictable &amp; signing up for a fixed rate now might mean you miss out if prices fall pic.twitter.com/hhjuPLM7HY

&mdash; Ofgem (@ofgem) May 25, 2023

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/ofgem/status/1661639455164227584","id":"1661639455164227584","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"a91709c5-cea0-47c8-89d9-cbf482b9e1c1"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1685007376000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"10.36 BST","blockLastUpdated":1685007471000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"10.37 BST","blockFirstPublished":1685007471000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"10.37 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"10.37","title":"Ofgem: think before you fix your energy bill","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646f25368f0879b44af7d380","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Pressure is mounting for a “social tariff” for gas and electricity to be introduced to protect the most financially vulnerable.

","elementId":"ccdbe848-9c5d-4959-86e9-939293b80911"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Such a social tariff would help lower-income households with their energy bills, which will still be around double their pre-Ukraine war levels even once the Ofgem price cap drops in July to £2,074 per year for a typical household.

","elementId":"dc167cf7-cd30-40f2-8bb9-193adbf28a15"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/apr/04/calls-for-energy-social-tariff-as-uk-government-support-ends","text":"Calls for energy ‘social tariff’ as UK government support ends","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"09dd7c19-bb4b-45c3-84a2-008e88f9360f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The Money Advice Trust, the charity that runs National Debtline and Business Debtline, backs a social tariff.

","elementId":"557bdc62-fda9-43b9-828a-2d0c7ed93583"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Joanna Elson CBE, chief executive at the Money Advice Trust, warns that the damage from unaffordable energy bills is already done, adding:

","elementId":"f72e8e3e-a2dd-4233-8991-9fc51bb499aa"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

Energy is still significantly more expensive than when this crisis started, and more support is going to be needed.

\n

“We need permanent solutions to this problem – including a social tariff for low income households, and a wider Essentials Guarantee to ensure Universal Credit always covers essential costs.

\n

“It’s also vital that people can access the advice they need. I would urge anyone who is worried about their energy bills to seek free, independent debt advice from a service like National Debtline. Our expert advisers are there to help and talk you through your options.”

\n

","elementId":"dee790de-8184-4348-a9e5-c11fcfd68f3e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Emily Fry, economist at the Resolution Foundation, says there is a strong case for social tariff:

","elementId":"b26468e5-6494-4fa5-b83c-e2d751389a19"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“Expected energy costs for a typical household this year are now on course to be around £2,100 – still up by almost 80 per cent on what families were used to pre-crisis.

\n

“A return to the level of bills households paid pre-crisis isn’t arriving anytime soon. The case for developing more sustainable support with energy bills, such a social tariff for vulnerable households, therefore remains strong.”

\n

","elementId":"044758fb-214f-4789-84a9-d131cbebab81"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Wholesale gas prices at last feed through to lower energy bills, but consumers still face bills up 80% on pre-crisis levels this year, says RF's @FryEmily in response to today's @ofgem energy price cap announcement: https://t.co/CR9K09DvBp pic.twitter.com/ripVzKF1gU

&mdash; Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) May 25, 2023

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Simon Virley CB, vice chair and head of energy and natural resources at KPMG in the UK, says energy suppliers still need greater clarity about the future direction of government policy for the energy market.

","elementId":"c8bd788b-fb6d-4b47-971b-7feb77a9df02"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Virley adds:

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\n

Serious thought needs to be given to how best deliver sustainable competition in the long-term, whilst protecting those that need it from higher prices.

\n

If that is a move to a social tariff for energy, on what basis would the eligible group be defined, and is there an ongoing role for the price cap in this scenario?”

\n

","elementId":"70c8a5dc-3247-490c-8014-78f33b2e9c64"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

⚡️@ofgem have announced the new energy price cap this morning, which will apply from 1 July.

While it is welcome to see the cap fall, it is still higher than last summer and nearly double historic levels.

We need an energy social tariff to make energy affordable for all. https://t.co/lnKDQOGe3v

&mdash; CIH Policy &amp; Practice (@CIH_Policy) May 25, 2023

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Back on the Ofgem price cap announement, energy security secretary Grant Shapps says today’s reduction in bills is a ‘major milestone’ in the drive to halve inflation.

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Shapps says:

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“It’s positive households across the country will see their energy bills fall by around £430 on average from July, marking a major milestone in our determined efforts to halve inflation.

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“We’ve spent billions to protect families when prices rose over the winter covering nearly half a typical household’s energy bill – and we’re now seeing costs fall even further with wholesale energy prices down by over two thirds since their peak as we’ve neutralised Putin’s blackmail.

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“I’m relentlessly focused on reducing our reliance on foreign fossil fuels and powering-up Britain from Britain to deliver cheaper, cleaner and more secure energy.”

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UK government borrowing costs have climbed to the highest level since the aftermath of the mini-budget last year, after inflation failed to fall as much as hoped in April.

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The yield, or interest rate, on two-year UK government bonds has jumped to 4.44% this morning, up from 4.35% last night.

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That’s the highest since last October, when the markets were spooked by the chaos caused by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s package of unfunded tax cuts.

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Benchmark 10-year and 30-year UK government bond prices have also fallen further in value, pushing up their yields.

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The selloff comes as the City is gripped by anxiety that Britain’s inflation problem will force interest rates even higher, after the Consumer Prices Index fell by less than expected in April.

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CPI dropped to 8.7% last month, higher than the 8.2% that was expected, while core inflation hit a 30-year high.

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This is expected to prompt the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates, from 4.5% at present, up towards 5.5% by the end of this year.

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Bond yields are also being pushed up by concerns that the US could default in June, if a debt ceiling deal can’t be agreed in time.

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In the City, the UK’s blue-chip shares index has hit its lowest level in eight weeks.

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The FTSE 100 lost almost 50 points to as low as 7577 points this morning, down another 0.6% after tumbling by 135 points on Wednesday.

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DIY chain Kingfisher are the top faller, down 5%, with retailer Frasers Group (-3%) and luxury group Burberry (-1.8%) also in the top fallers.

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Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC are both in the red too, down around 0.5%, with Germany’s fall into recession not helping the mood.

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Worries over the US debt ceiling are mounting, after ratings agency Fitch put the United States’ credit on watch for a possible downgrade last night.

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Fitch’s threat to remove the US’s gold-plated AAA rating came as talks over the country’s debt limit go down to the wire.

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The US Treasury has warned that Congress must agree to raise the debt ceiling by 1 June or the US will run out of cash to pay its bills, resulting in a default that would cause widespread disruption in financial markets.

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Last night, top Republican Kevin McCarthy warned that more time may be needed to reach a budget deal with President Joe Biden, as the two sides blamed each other for the deadlock:

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Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, says,

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Rating agency Fitch has placed the US AAA rating on negative watch, citing concerns about the looming US debt ceiling deadline.

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In 2011, S&amp;P cut the US rating to AA-plus, which triggered a major market sell-off. The Democrats and Republicans have yet to find common ground and reach a deal, with hopes that the stalemate will finally end in the days ahead so that a catastrophic US default can be averted.

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However time is ticking, prompting a bout of market nervousness as the deadline draws closer.”

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UK challenger bank Starling has announced its chief executive is stepping down next month.

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Anne Boden, who founded Starling Bank nine years ago, is to step aside as CEO on 30 June. She’ll be replaced by the bank’s chief operating officer, John Mountain.

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Starling has also reported that revenues more than doubled in the last financial year, to 31 March, from £216m to £453m, while pre-tax profits jumped six-fold to £195m from £32m.

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Starling now has 3.6m customers.

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Anne Boden, founder of Starling Bank, is stepping down as CEO at the end of June after nearly a decade in the role. The fintech has shaken up banking services but faces headwinds with its exposure to bounce back loans. Starling has posted £195mn annual profit – 6x higher

&mdash; Emma Dunkley (@EmDunks) May 25, 2023

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/EmDunks/status/1661645161732947970","id":"1661645161732947970","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"a1057e72-1afd-4c8a-a43f-7aa13eb069c0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Anne Boden says today:

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\n

“When I started Starling in 2014, I was told no one ever starts a bank, nobody wins market share and you’ll never make a profit. Today’s results prove them wrong.

\n

“We’ve succeeded in disrupting an entire industry. I’m immensely proud of these results, which are a testament to how far we have come as a team and how fast we’ve moved as a business.

\n

“I have spent nearly a decade here as both the founder and CEO, a dual role which is unique in UK banking. It’s been all-consuming and I’ve loved every minute of it.

\n

","elementId":"6bf20840-722d-4864-ba00-a2fe61c3029d"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1685002369000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"09.12 BST","blockLastUpdated":1685002684000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"09.18 BST","blockFirstPublished":1685002684000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"09.18 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"09.18","title":"Anne Boden, founder of Starling Bank, stepping down as CEO","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646f14118f0879b44af7d2e2","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The head of energy regulator Ofgem has defended a decision to consider increasing the amount of profit companies can make on people’s bills.

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Jonathan Brearley argued that firms need to have “more money in the bank” to build resilience over price shocks.

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Taking questions on ITV’s Good Morning Britain from money expert Martin Lewis, who said consumers would be “staggered” by the measure, Brearley argued that energy firms needed to be financially resilient after the flurry of failures in 2021.

","elementId":"5a0f223b-2cbd-447e-8c96-d0b982ec1b74"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/jun/22/failing-energy-suppliers-cost-uk-consumers-2-billion-pounds-watchdog","text":"Failing energy firms will cost UK consumers £2.7bn, says watchdog","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"b943970b-1166-4232-ae60-d14a932aaad1"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Brearley told GMB:

","elementId":"be4467bb-fe39-4d67-a095-dc15594cf503"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“So you’ll remember everything we went through in the end of 2021 and that put around £80 on people’s bills when 30 companies failed.

\n

What we’re saying to every company is: you need to have good risk management and you need to have money in the bank so you can last through the sorts of price shocks we’ve seen over the last two years.

\n

“Now they need to get that money from somewhere, so we’re putting in roughly an increase of about £10 a year to make sure companies are financially resilient.”

\n

","elementId":"6c313ebb-7a0b-416b-9018-36ef6b3bd6eb"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/21/power-failures-what-are-the-bosses-of-britains-bust-energy-firms-doing-now","text":"Power failures: what are the bosses of Britain’s bust energy firms doing now?","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"9f7d27a6-8394-4b7a-8324-e77c663046f8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Here’s a clip of the interview:

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'People will be staggered to hear that you are consulting on increasing the amount of profit that energy firms are allowed to make. That's not the best timing is it?' @MartinSLewis

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley says the increase is to make sure 'companies are resilient'. pic.twitter.com/mVKnPQKIUo

&mdash; Good Morning Britain (@GMB) May 25, 2023

","url":"https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1661634927379591169","id":"1661634927379591169","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"145710f3-b876-456e-95eb-2a6d43ffeb23"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1685001233000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"08.53 BST","blockLastUpdated":1685002338000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"09.12 BST","blockFirstPublished":1685002112000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"09.08 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"09.08","title":"Ofgem chief defends letting energy firms make more profits","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646f0cd08f0879b44af7d2aa","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Weak private and public consumption dragged the German economy into recession last winter, says Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.

","elementId":"0a80c87f-7674-43c7-964d-e3ea4c093f48"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Brzeski explains:

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\n

It’s not the worst-case scenario of a severe recession but a drop of almost 1% from last summer. The warm winter weather, a rebound in industrial activity, helped by the Chinese reopening and an easing of supply chain frictions, were not enough to get the economy out of the recessionary danger zone. Private consumption continued to suffer from still-high retail energy prices.

\n

Looking beyond the first quarter, the optimism at the start of the year seems to have given way to more of a sense of reality. A drop in purchasing power, thinned-out industrial order books as well as the impact of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades, and the expected slowdown of the US economy all argue in favour of weak economic activity.

\n

On top of these cyclical factors, the ongoing war in Ukraine, demographic change and the current energy transition will structurally weigh on the German economy in the coming years.

\n

","elementId":"d71fa4bc-2aca-44c9-bc8b-2d3e87d21687"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Javier Blas says Germany’s fall into recession shows the impact of Europe’s energy crisis – the country scrambled to cut gas use after the Ukraine war began.

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The impact of the European energy crisis: after early data was revised, Germany fell into recession in 1Q 2023, after economic activity already contracted in 4Q 2022 #EnergyCrisis

&mdash; Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 25, 2023

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1661635941427998721","id":"1661635941427998721","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"8628e782-8c3b-44b4-8617-2311bbc2c03a"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told clients:

","elementId":"d26750c1-1952-4041-a632-4505e42bacc8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“Germany did fall into recession at the end of last year, after all, as the shock in energy prices weighed on consumers’ spending,”

\n

","elementId":"86bc4ab3-3e20-4208-8c16-3f7f20907260"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

He added that it is unlikely that the German GDP will continue to fall in the coming quarters, “but we see no strong recovery either.”

","elementId":"43812613-6d86-4d48-afaa-9192fd3d87f3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

And it's a recession in Germany … as predicted by the IFO survey, for some time.

&mdash; Claus Vistesen (@ClausVistesen) May 25, 2023

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/ClausVistesen/status/1661614049442902016","id":"1661614049442902016","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"6d5aecde-edcc-40af-8d7d-def91ec39f30"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684999376000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"08.22 BST","blockLastUpdated":1685000232000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.37 BST","blockFirstPublished":1685000232000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"08.37 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"08.37","title":"Germany in winter recession: what the experts say","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646f09e48f08e69f06831272","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Europe’s largest economy has fallen into recession, as the economic disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hit growth.

","elementId":"cd3724e2-dc37-43e0-abf7-c4bea8198ab2"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

New data released this morning shows that Germany’s economy has shrunk over the last two quarters – the technical definion of a recession.

","elementId":"3e0f89fb-4e3f-4638-b8a2-d29571b3c5ba"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

German GDP shrank by 0.3% in the January-March quarter, revised figures show, rather than stagnating as first estimated.

","elementId":"b67f6f7e-e9f0-4bce-aae8-88cee0aa328e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

That follows a 0.5% contraction in October-December.

","elementId":"bbbe0e8a-bb10-40a9-89f4-7c6dedb7eb64"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Germany GDP revisions to growth data point to a 0.3% contraction in GDP in the 1st quarter of this year (the initial estimate was 0%).

As this follows the 0.5% GDP fall in the prior quarter, Germany is now officially in a recession.#germany #gdp #recession #dowjones pic.twitter.com/qnZmtMb7AN

&mdash; Ankesh Tiwary (@tiwary_pandit_) May 25, 2023

","url":"https://twitter.com/tiwary_pandit_/status/1661622321684312071","id":"1661622321684312071","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"baff65df-0319-40bc-95f0-40fde255257b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Ruth Brand, president of the Federal Statistical Office, says:

","elementId":"4fbe15a1-4d2e-45df-9224-5b8b08f3c599"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“After GDP growth entered negative territory at the end of 2022, the German economy has now recorded two consecutive negative quarters.”

\n

","elementId":"d437730b-9a48-4e9e-90b6-5eba7222a81d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Statistics body Destatis reports that household spending fell.

","elementId":"c7f7603d-f4d5-40f4-a84c-302005e351e0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

It says:

","elementId":"d901a46c-5c2a-4d99-ae5c-bbeffe51a194"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

The reluctance of households to buy was apparent in a variety of areas: households spent less on food and beverages, clothing and footwear, and on furnishings in the first quarter of 2023 than in the previous quarter.

\n

","elementId":"b28a82d3-868b-4232-9a88-52da03b3310a"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

There was also a fall in government expenditure, while investment was up and construction output also rose.

","elementId":"6bd0f134-3580-4868-932b-115159a7fbdd"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Das #Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im 1. Quartal 2023 gegenüber dem 4. Quartal 2022 preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt um 0,3 % gesunken. Es lag damit um 0,3 Prozentpunkte niedriger als in der Schnellmeldung vom 28. April 2023 berichtet. Weitere Infos: https://t.co/0bHWglHYqh #BIP pic.twitter.com/HveVWOH2LS

&mdash; Statistisches Bundesamt (@destatis) May 25, 2023

","url":"https://twitter.com/destatis/status/1661614021605306370","id":"1661614021605306370","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"2db735e6-ee97-494c-a2e7-886316d568f9"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Earlier this week, the IMF ditched its prediction that the UK would fall into recession this year.

","elementId":"7d4424b2-6be8-4e24-a344-2a76db58e65b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/global/2023/may/23/imf-uk-recession-tax-cuts-jeremy-hunt-debt","text":"IMF says UK no longer heading for recession but urges against tax cuts","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"e16c494a-d06c-4ffc-bf21-219241dae487"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684998628000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"08.10 BST","blockLastUpdated":1684999292000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.21 BST","blockFirstPublished":1684999248000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"08.20 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"08.20","title":"Germany falls into recession","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646f05ad8f0879b44af7d27d","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

National Energy Action have calculated that there will still be 6.6 million households in fuel povert once the price of energy falls in July, under the new price cap, down from around 7.5m.

","elementId":"d05286f2-6b47-4f62-994c-27ba04c4fca0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The charity points out that energy bills are still approximately almost double the level of October 2021.

","elementId":"1f2bf15e-4adc-4e80-be4a-a27955fdb409"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

And crucially, bills from July will be comparable to last winter as the Government has withdrawn support worth £400 to each household.

","elementId":"cd03bfd2-cd35-4141-9138-05a5e9b73b71"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

National Energy Action’s chief executive Adam Scorer says:

","elementId":"48936fde-4cf0-4668-a0ac-5b87ea951869"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“Coming out of winter, most people will welcome any respite from record high prices, but it still leaves prices more than two-thirds higher than the start of the energy crisis and two million more households trapped in fuel poverty.

\n

More than two and half million low income and vulnerable households are no longer receiving any government support for unaffordable bills. For them, the energy crisis is far from over.”

\n

","elementId":"fef17fe2-3bf7-4d31-bc6d-ed518afdc78d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

NEA also provide advice and support for those struggling – click here for more details.

","elementId":"d240ba40-6b38-493a-ab8d-afafd9ad108d"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684997549000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.52 BST","blockLastUpdated":1684997860000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"07.57 BST","blockFirstPublished":1684997860000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"07.57 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"07.57","title":"6.6m households face fuel poverty under new price cap","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646f03ee8f08b6593e868bc0","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Great Britain’s energy price cap has fallen to £2,074 a year, but the average household will still pay almost double the rate for their gas and electricity than before costs started to soar, our energy correspondent Jillian Ambrose reports.

","elementId":"b5a0b1d3-198d-480f-b551-82d9b8f5d797"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Around 27m households can expect a modest drop in energy bills this summer after the regulator Ofgem lowered the cap on the typical annual dual-fuel tariff to reflect a steep drop in global energy prices over recent months.

","elementId":"83e6915b-b3ed-4b17-bb82-a6431c5f1446"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

From July, when the change takes effect, households will see their average gas and electricity bill fall from the £2,500 a year level set by the government’s energy price guarantee.

","elementId":"9c58f900-1066-4bdc-8542-0143a34c7c41"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

But households who struggled to pay their bills over the winter will feel little relief, because government top-ups worth £400 between October to March have come to an end.

","elementId":"6ecc64d1-f489-4be3-b37a-22954d0a0064"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The average energy bill will remain almost double the level seen in October 2021 – when Russia began restricting supplies of gas to Europe in a move that sent wholesale prices soaring. Before the energy crisis, the typical household paid £1,271 a year for gas and electricity.

","elementId":"bf5d2b59-d3f1-4b01-8b0c-de6c89bc0cf3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Households could still face dual-fuel bills above £2,074 if they use more than the typical amount of energy because Ofgem’s cap limits the rate energy suppliers can charge for each unit of gas and electricity – not the total bill.

","elementId":"c2794915-484b-4d79-bfd4-6f63509f9fa7"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

More here:

","elementId":"87840f66-b6cf-4f55-960a-7ffc0b538ac8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/may/25/britain-energy-price-cap-fall-ofgem-gas-electricity-bills","text":"Britain’s energy price cap falls to £2,074 but households will see little relief","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"fa0c1d5a-d9dc-423d-bd3b-4122852251eb"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684997102000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.45 BST","blockLastUpdated":1684997216000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"07.46 BST","blockFirstPublished":1684997216000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"07.46 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"07.46","title":"Full story: Britain’s energy price cap falls to £2,074 but households will see little relief","contributors":[{"name":"Jillian Ambrose"}],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646f025f8f0879b44af7d265","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Q: Yesterday, energy firm SSE reported its profits have almost doubled in the last year (to an adjusted pre-tax profit of £2.18bn). Does that suggest the market might be rigged?

","elementId":"c5cf4e08-ecd9-4793-b86b-8cea8816b0fa"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Ofgem CEO Jonathan Brearley points out that SSE don’t have a domestic retail business in the UK, so they don’t have the business that we’re regulating through the price cap.

","elementId":"c57bf17c-1d93-4054-82e8-02f3f534c940"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

He says there has been huge turbulence in the market with the cost of commodities internationally going up dramatically.

","elementId":"016e217e-e058-4457-bee3-3724e705362f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

That came as Russia started withdrawing their gas from the market, and the whole of Europe making plans to move away from Russian gas.

","elementId":"33659b13-0701-4d8e-8627-a60a881e6285"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

That means the market is tighter and that does mean that prices are higher.

\n

","elementId":"41c9cf99-1176-474a-9efc-f8c1649ae810"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Brearley adds that the situation is starting to stabilise, and repeats that he hopes to see “competitive fixed price deals reenter the market”.

","elementId":"ade91ea6-80f1-4bdb-8671-53d6a29727d6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

He concludes:

","elementId":"c9a7b2fc-d2eb-4c3c-90ff-2c3bfca71d3b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

We have faced the biggest energy shock in our history. But things are improving.

\n

","elementId":"53c92cff-1993-4a46-9107-14858ba6f069"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684996703000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.38 BST","blockLastUpdated":1684997063000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"07.44 BST","blockFirstPublished":1684997064000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"07.44 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"07.44","title":"Ofgem’s Brearley: We have faced the biggest energy shock in our history.","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646efbb38f0879b44af7d222","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Ofgem CEO Jonathan Brearley has warned that energy prices are unlikely to fall to their pre-crisis levels [in 2019, the cap was £1,254 per year].

","elementId":"9c9e0ddc-d0a6-4041-92dd-242ba7bce49e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Brearley says:

","elementId":"80241fca-3ac6-4587-b3d7-410345d25073"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“After a difficult winter for consumers it is encouraging to see signs that the market is stabilising and prices are moving in the right direction. People should start seeing cheaper energy bills from the start of July, and that is a welcome step towards lower costs.

\n

“However, we know people are still finding it hard, the cost-of-living crisis continues and these bills will still be troubling many people up and down the country. Where people are struggling, we urge them to contact their supplier who will be able to offer a range of support, such as payment plans or access to hardship funds.

\n

“In the medium term, we’re unlikely to see prices return to the levels we saw before the energy crisis, and therefore we believe that it is imperative that government, Ofgem, consumer groups and the wider industry work together to support vulnerable groups. In particular, we will continue to work with government to look at all options.”

\n

","elementId":"e922ccef-6aa9-4bf2-ab3e-ba74c739b132"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684994995000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.09 BST","blockLastUpdated":1684995204000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"07.13 BST","blockFirstPublished":1684995121000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"07.12 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"07.12","title":"Ofgem’s Brearley: Bills will still be troubling for many people","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646ef8318f08e69f068311f6","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Newsflash: Average energy bills will fall this summer.

","elementId":"af3a726d-3eb7-410b-b8b2-67d865dcc34e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Regulator Ofgem has just announced that Great Britain’s energy price cap will fall from July, to £2,074 a year for a typical household – a saving of over £400 per year.

","elementId":"c9f3a82d-6cb5-4b60-8b47-4002dc6d6f6e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

The energy Price Cap will change from 1 July 2023

The new #PriceCap is £2,074

The level is based on typical use of an average household on their supplier’s standard default tariff

It's a cap on energy unit price, not a cap on total bills

More ➡️ https://t.co/E5rmWzIvCd pic.twitter.com/hrtBuvCzsC

&mdash; Ofgem (@ofgem) May 25, 2023

","url":"https://twitter.com/ofgem/status/1661613058320367616","id":"1661613058320367616","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"16193ac1-fb37-4f39-9707-7adf43ddd758"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The move means around 27m households can expect a modest drop in energy bills this summer. Ofgem is lowering the cap on the typical annual dual-fuel tariff to reflect a steep drop in global energy prices over recent months.

","elementId":"4442540d-0a84-418d-87ea-a4c323a905af"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

From July, when the change takes effect, households will see their average gas and electricity bill fall from the £2,500 a year level set by the government’s energy price guarantee.

","elementId":"27c9d365-0e90-476d-b484-0cc628ea73e2"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

But the average household will still pay almost double the rate for their gas and electricity than before costs started to soar.

","elementId":"4133dab6-6bbd-4250-b077-66fe44516ebc"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

And as this is a cap on energy unit costs, there’s no limit on the bills a household could run up; they’ll be lower than without the cap, though.

","elementId":"c54556b8-ea97-4f88-a344-e38dc7177469"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684994097000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"06.54 BST","blockLastUpdated":1685014282000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"12.31 BST","blockFirstPublished":1684994576000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"07.02 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"07.02","title":"Ofgem cuts price cap to £2,074 from July","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646ef3238f08b6593e868b49","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Around 6.5m households will still be in fuel poverty, analysts estimate, even once bills fall in July.

","elementId":"be0b1021-7a2b-41b9-8a94-67616af822a1"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

At more than £2,000, typical energy bills will remain almost double the level they were at before Russia began restricting gas supplies to Europe as it prepared to invade Ukraine. In October 2021, the typical household paid £1,271 a year for gas and electricity, my colleague Jillian Ambrose explains.

","elementId":"972546af-007d-4115-871a-fc4e66f5371c"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

In a forecast that will alarm hard-pressed families, Cornwall’s analysts have warned they do not expect bills to return to pre-2020 levels “before the end of the decade at the earliest”.

","elementId":"39a3c7ed-aff0-4dc0-830e-8fc5820a06d6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Peter Smith, a director of National Energy Action, a fuel poverty charity, said:

","elementId":"64d8d1c9-9f9d-4126-b7c7-659f982b333e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"

\n

“It is good news energy prices are no longer spiralling but the energy crisis is far from over.”

\n

","elementId":"25692ed3-03d5-47ed-8725-fcf8456c13ad"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

More here:

","elementId":"28a828b8-5161-434f-817f-a7cbac6716fc"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/may/24/millions-will-still-face-fuel-poverty-despite-ofgem-move-to-cut-energy-price-cap","text":"Millions will face fuel poverty despite Ofgem move to cut energy price cap","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"4dc123dd-3fca-4617-be3f-f81d8d6ca20a"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684993248000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"06.40 BST","blockLastUpdated":1684994042000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"06.54 BST","blockFirstPublished":1684994042000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"06.54 BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"06.54","title":"Full story: Millions will face fuel poverty despite Ofgem move to cut energy price cap","contributors":[{"name":"Jillian Ambrose"}],"primaryDateLine":"Thu 25 May 2023 14.08 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Thu 25 May 2023 06.40 BST"},{"id":"646e85478f08b6593e868858","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Good morning.

","elementId":"bb288844-e162-4c28-b907-ae33275a6389"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The energy regulator is poised to announces a cut to household bills this summer, but UK households could little relief in the ongoing cost of living crisis.

","elementId":"6349cad7-9b45-40e6-9332-aa36601fa85a"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Ofgem is expected to lower the energy price cap by several hundred pounds a year, when it is next adjusted in July. The announcement is due at 7am.

","elementId":"9def263b-7a76-4221-96a1-13058e0509e3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Analysts at consultancy Cornwall Insight predicts the price cap will fall to £2,054 a year for a typical household, following the drop in wholesale energy prices in recent months.

","elementId":"2481a069-dfc9-46ef-be2b-1dfe16ac966f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The cap, which was meant to protect consumers across Great Britain from rising prices, soared last year after the Ukraine invasion drove up oil and gas prices. This prompted the government to step in with its own energy price guarantee, effectively a lower cap than Ofgem’s.

","elementId":"39a88874-b3d1-4ddb-91ad-4167b71969dc"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Since April, the Ofgem cap has been set at an annual level of £3,280 for the average household on a dual-fuel tariff, which would be painfully high. But the government’s energy guarantee means average bills are lower, at £2,500 a year for a typical customer.

","elementId":"e4929dc2-8c12-48aa-b69d-9a76282febe9"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

That EPG will rise to £3,000 from July – meaning the Ofgem cap (assuming it does fall today) will determine bills.

","elementId":"d9f2e6c9-aa3e-4480-b3b4-018d65d9cd31"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/15/jeremy-hunt-makes-u-turn-on-planned-cut-to-energy-bills-support","text":"Jeremy Hunt makes U-turn on planned cut to energy support","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"bb630d23-751d-4e1a-a618-0a50d684a15f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Importantly, the cap is on the unit charge of energy – NOT the maximum a household can be billed (which is still determined by how much energy they use).

","elementId":"ba8673a7-f623-4bad-87a7-c63842412aa7"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

And if the Ofgem cap does drop to around £2,000 per year, as expected, households will still be paying much more for energy than before the Ukraine war – even though European wholesale gas prices have hit 22-month lows in May.

","elementId":"3a0019f8-98bd-46dc-993f-c8b53b984647"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.InteractiveBlockElement","url":"https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2023/05/energy_price_cap/giv-13425YL6eNlkfdq7f/","alt":"A graph showing the UK energy price cap","scriptUrl":"https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/iframe-wrapper/0.1/boot.js","isMandatory":false,"elementId":"856f20e2-3202-4469-9710-2cbee28ba3d7"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Households which struggled to pay their bills over the winter will continue to be squeezed as government payments worth a total of £400 between October to March this year have come to an end.

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Campaigners from the End Fuel Poverty Coalition have warned that households hoping for a sharp drop in their bills may find little difference compared with the rates they paid over winter.

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Simon Francis, a coordinator at the coalition, said last week:

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\n

“People now face many more months with bills remaining stubbornly high. This will see them continue to use up their savings for everyday items, run up credit card bills, fall into debt with energy firms or turn to food banks as the cost of living crisis deepens.”

\n

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Although inflation did fall yesterday, prices continue to rise faster than economists expected, driven by essentials such as food.

","elementId":"20b91b24-9666-4734-b218-52b2d1f01f37"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/24/uk-inflation-falls-cost-of-living-crisis","text":"Bank forecast to raise rates above 5% as UK inflation falls by less than expected","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"92948934-243d-4a4a-8c41-b7c5d58e2c6e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement","html":"

The agenda

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    \n

  • 7am BST: Ofgem announcement on UK energy price cap

  • \n

  • 9.30am BST: Latest realtime UK economic data from the Office for National Statistics

  • \n

  • 11am BST: CBI distributive trades survey of UK retail sector

  • \n

  • 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims figures

  • \n

  • 1.30pm BST: Chicago Fed national activity index

  • \n

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Key events

Filters BETA

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt: We’re ‘willing to do what it takes’ on energy bill support

The chancellor has said he “is willing to do what it takes” and increase support for households if energy bills rise again this autumn.

In an interview with Sky News, Jeremy Hunt was asked if he could guarantee he would step in if energy bills start rising again.

Hunt says:

We’ve shown in the past that where they are acute pressures that people face unexpectedly, we want to do everything we can to help families.

Hunt says he doesn’t want to predict how energy prices will develop. The government doesn’t expect a repeat of last year’s price surge, but it doesn’t know that for sure.

The chancellor said:

“All I can say is that I think I’ve demonstrated in the autumn statement, and the spring budget where I extended the energy price guarantee for another three months, funded in part by a windfall tax on the oil companies, that we are willing to do what it takes.”

Hunt was speaking after Ofgem lowered its energy price cap, to a level where average bills will be £2,074 a year from July, down from the £2,500 level in Hunt’s energy price guaranteee.

But as we covered earlier, Ofgem’s CEO told MPs this morning that it would only take one major hit to supplies, or a jump in demand, to push gas prices up.

And charities have warned that over 6 million households will still be in fuel poverty, even once the cost of gas and electricity falls in July.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells Sky News he is willing to do what it takes to help people with energy prices

For more on this and other news visit https://t.co/NEDMP2uP6W

&mdash; Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 25, 2023

","url":"https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1661715771003740161","id":"1661715771003740161","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"d96933c1-aea4-48df-8b3d-af13469e00ac"}}”>

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells Sky News he is willing to do what it takes to help people with energy prices

For more on this and other news visit https://t.co/NEDMP2uP6W

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 25, 2023

Updated at 14.08 BST

Just in. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless support has risen, but remains low by historic measures.

There were 229,000 new ‘initial claims’ for unemployment insurance last week, a jump of 4,000.

The previous week’s level has been revised down by 17,000, from 242,000 to 225,000, due to some fraudulent claims being removed.

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Massachusetts revises its weekly jobless claims numbers down by ~14,300/week for the past 12 weeks, blaming fraud. Claims revised down to 225k from 242k the prior week, this week 229k.

&mdash; Michael McKee (@mckonomy) May 25, 2023

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Massachusetts revises its weekly jobless claims numbers down by ~14,300/week for the past 12 weeks, blaming fraud. Claims revised down to 225k from 242k the prior week, this week 229k.

— Michael McKee (@mckonomy) May 25, 2023

<gu-island name="TweetBlockComponent" deferuntil="visible" props="{"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Initial jobless claims at 229k vs. 245k est. &amp; 225k prior (rev down from 242k); continuing claims at 1.794M vs. 1.8M est. &amp; 1.799M prior … greatest increases in TX (+2.7k), CT (+2.5k), &amp; CA (+844); greatest decreases in MA (-2.2k), MI (-1.1k), &amp; IL (-923) pic.twitter.com/ywtqKHTSRL

&mdash; Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) May 25, 2023

\n","url":"https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1661712616723562497","id":"1661712616723562497","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"a7371208-6c2d-4698-88ce-ccf3b4329c6c"}}”>

Initial jobless claims at 229k vs. 245k est. & 225k prior (rev down from 242k); continuing claims at 1.794M vs. 1.8M est. & 1.799M prior … greatest increases in TX (+2.7k), CT (+2.5k), & CA (+844); greatest decreases in MA (-2.2k), MI (-1.1k), & IL (-923) pic.twitter.com/ywtqKHTSRL

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) May 25, 2023

Hundreds of workers at the largest soft drinks plant in Europe, in Wakefield, West Yorkshire, have voted to strike in a pay dispute.

The Unite union says staff rejected a pay deal worth 6%, which is a real terms pay cut given inflation was 8.7% in the year to April.

Workers are planning 14 days of strikes between Thursday 8 June and Thursday 22 June.

Unite regional officer Chris Rawlinson said:

“Coca Cola’s pay offer has fallen flat. The vast majority of the workforce have joined Unite to fight for fair pay. Now a series of strikes will inevitably shut down the production of Britain’s favourite soft drinks, including Coca-Cola.

But industrial action can still be avoided at Europe’s biggest soft drinks plant if bosses realise that they must pay workers a fair wage from the company’s enormous profits.”

CCEP Wakefield can produce 360,000 cans per hour, and 132,000 bottles per hour, and makes drinks including Coca Cola, Diet Coke, Coke Zero, Dr Pepper, Fanta, Fanta Lemon, Fanta Fruit Twist, Sprite, and the Monster and Relentless energy drinks.

It also makes Schweppes: Tonic, Diet Tonic, Bitter Lemon, Ginger Ale and Lemonade.

DBRS Morningstar places US credit ratings under review over debt ceiling worries

Credit rating agency DBRS Morningstar has put its rating for the United States on review for a downgrade on Thursday over Washington’s haggling over its borrowing limits.

The move comes less than 24 hours after Fitch, one of the big three rating agencies, issued a similar warning over the US debt ceiling deadlock.

DBRS said in a statement that:

“The Under Review with Negative Implications reflects the risk of Congress failing to increase or suspend the debt ceiling in a timely manner.

“If Congress does not act, the U.S. federal government will not be able to pay all of its obligations.”

DBRS says the precise timing of when the federal government will exhaust available cash and extraordinary measures, the so-called X-date, is “somewhat unclear”, but could be just days away….

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated her warning on May 22 that the X-date could come as early as June 1. Judging from the latest data on daily net inflows into the Treasury General Account, we believe it is reasonable to assume the X-date could arrive within weeks if not days.

While we still expect Congress to raise the debt ceiling before Treasury runs out of available resources, there is a risk of Congressional inaction as the X-date approaches. DBRS Morningstar would consider any missed payment of interest or principal as a default.

Shares in energy company Centrica have jumped by over 4% this morning, after Ofgem proposed allowing suppliers to swell their profits.

The regulator is proposing increasing the amount of profit suppliers can make from 1.9% to 2.4% to prevent them going bust, because the cost of bailing out a failed supplier would be higher.

Under the plan, annual supplier profits would climb from £37 a household to £47 – meaning an extra £10 per year on energy bills.

Centrica, which owns British Gas, has jumped 4.2% to 118p per share.

Smaller mortgage lenders pull deal as UK borrowing costs rise

The jump in UK borrowing costs this week has forced some smaller British mortgage lenders to temporarily withdraw and repriced products for new customers, Reuters reports.

The move, following the spike in UK government bond yields yesterday and today (see earlier post), has some echoes of the turmoil in the mortgage market last autumn after the disastrous mini-budget.

Reuters reports that at least seven small lenders, mostly focused on the buy-to-let market, have pulled products or announced a repricing this week, according to mortgage brokers contacted by Reuters.

But none of the major high street banks have withdrawn or repriced products this week as a result of the market conditions, they add.

Fixed-rate mortgages are priced according to the UK government bond market, so a jump in the yield on two-year bonds, or gilts, has a knock-on impact on the mortgage market.

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Two-year swap rate – which feeds through into mortgage pricing – on track for biggest weekly increase since September 1989, if you take last year's minibudget out of the picture.

Up 51 basis points. pic.twitter.com/bJOzwC54lt

&mdash; Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) May 25, 2023

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Two-year swap rate – which feeds through into mortgage pricing – on track for biggest weekly increase since September 1989, if you take last year’s minibudget out of the picture.

Up 51 basis points. pic.twitter.com/bJOzwC54lt

— Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) May 25, 2023

The two-year British swap rate, for example, has gained half a percentage point from 3.98% last Friday to 4.45% today, as traders anticipate further Bank of England interest rate rises to fight inflation.

<gu-island name="TweetBlockComponent" deferuntil="visible" props="{"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Bank of England interest rates rising to 5.5% late this year now fully priced in by the market 👇 pic.twitter.com/gcRVzA9qgh

&mdash; Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) May 25, 2023

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Here’s our explainer on how the UK’s energy price cap works, and how the change announced this morning will affect households:

Ministers have been urged to reveal if they are considering “controls” to stop supermarkets unfairly profiting from food inflation.

Yesterday’s inflation report shows that food and non-alcoholic beverage prices are rising by over 19% per year, remaining stubbornly high even as the headline inflation rate fell.

In the Commons, Conservative MP Michael Fabricant urged ministers to ensure “supermarkets don’t take unfair advantage and excess profits from wholesale prices”.

He told MPs:

“My constituents in Lichfield and Burntwood and indeed the rest of the country are enduring high food inflation, as indeed they are in the rest of Europe.

“But what controls have we got, if that is the word, to ensure that supermarkets don’t take unfair advantage and excess profits from wholesale prices?”

Environment minister Mark Spencer replied:

“Retailers work to ensure strong competitive pressure remains in the marketplace, however the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) announced last week that they are looking into the grocery sector to see whether any failure in competition is contributing to prices being higher than would be normally.

“The CMA will focus on areas where people are experiencing greater cost-of-living pressures, but he will also be aware that the Grocery Code Adjudicator will remain separate from the CMA and can take up investigations should they choose to do so.”

Labour MP Dan Jarvis meanwhile called on the Government to reveal whether it had a plan to “rapidly reduce food price inflation”.

Jarvis, MP for Barnsley Central, said:

“Food price inflation remains at the eye-wateringly high level of 19%, causing misery to millions.

Minister Spencer replied that the government was working closely with retailers, with producers, and with processors to strip out the impact of pressures on global markets from the Ukraine war, which drove up food and energy costs.

Kalyeena Makortoff

Kalyeena Makortoff

The world’s biggest insurance market Lloyd’s of London is steeling itself for climate protests ahead of its AGM this afternoon.

The meeting starts at 2pm, but is closed to the public and media, meaning activists who have so far disrupted the AGMs of Barclays, HSBC and Shell, will likely stay outside of the One Lime Street headquarters in London.

Climate activists say they are concerned about Lloyd’s members providing insurance for fossil fuel projects, which they say would not be able to go ahead without their underwriting services. (See also the students launching a career boycott of firms involved in carbon-heavy projects).

Lloyd’s told staff and members earlier this month that it would be putting up barriers and restricting entry through its main reception to “ensure the safety of everyone in he building” until the AGM was over.

The marketplace has also issued a defence this morning ahead of the protests:

“We support safe and constructive engagement with NGOs and those highlighting important issues like climate change.

Lloyd’s is committed to insuring the transition by providing the vital risk management solutions that will support societal resilience, transition and growth. We have aligned our climate approach and activities to government policy in achieving net zero by 2050.

As all insurance in the Lloyd’s market is underwritten by the managing agents, not Lloyd’s itself, it is for the individual businesses that operate in the Lloyd’s market to make their own business and strategy decisions.”

Rishi Sunak has said the reduction in the energy price cap was a “major milestone” in his goal of halving inflation.

The Prime Minister said:

“Welcome news that the energy price cap is coming down, reducing energy bills from July by nearly £430 on average per year.

“It marks a major milestone in our work to halve inflation.”

April’s smaller-than-expected drop in UK inflation, to 8.7%, has raised questions over whether inflation will actually halve by December to 5%, from 10.1% in January.

Ofgem’s price cap in unit terms

We talk about the price cap in terms of its impact on typical household energy bills, but it actually regulates how much a supplier can charge per unit of energy.

For electricity, the unit rate will drop to 30p per kWh. That’s down from a unit rate of 51p per kWh set in April. There’s also a standing charge of 53p per day.

For gas, the unit rate has dropped to 8p per kWh, down from 13p per kWh, plus a standing charge of 29p per day.

A breakdown of Ofgem's energy price cap
Photograph: Ofgem

So while the average bill will drop to £2,074, there’s no limit on the amount a customer can be charged.

[plus, the government’s energy price guarantee meant that the previous typical bill was £2,500 per year, not the current £3,280 price cap]

Ofgem: think before you fix your energy bill

The energy regulator is urging consumers to “think” before they fix their energy bills.

Ofgem warns:

With the lower price cap figure, fixed-rate energy tariffs might appear back on the market, but check if they are right for you.

Prices are still unpredictable & signing up for a fixed rate now might mean you miss out if prices fall.

<gu-island name="TweetBlockComponent" deferuntil="visible" props="{"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

From 1 July #PriceCap average direct debit unit rates for energy;

ELECTRICITY Unit rate: 30p per kWh Standing charge: 53p per day

GAS Unit rate: 8p per kWh Standing charge: 29p per day

These are caps on unit rates (not a cap on total bills) and vary by region pic.twitter.com/EkUQRzrV0C

&mdash; Ofgem (@ofgem) May 25, 2023

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From 1 July #PriceCap average direct debit unit rates for energy;

ELECTRICITY Unit rate: 30p per kWh Standing charge: 53p per day

GAS Unit rate: 8p per kWh Standing charge: 29p per day

These are caps on unit rates (not a cap on total bills) and vary by region pic.twitter.com/EkUQRzrV0C

— Ofgem (@ofgem) May 25, 2023

<gu-island name="TweetBlockComponent" deferuntil="visible" props="{"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

⚠️THINK BEFORE YOU FIX

With the lower #PriceCap figure, fixed-rate energy tariffs might appear back on the market, but check if they are right for you

Prices are still unpredictable &amp; signing up for a fixed rate now might mean you miss out if prices fall pic.twitter.com/hhjuPLM7HY

&mdash; Ofgem (@ofgem) May 25, 2023

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⚠️THINK BEFORE YOU FIX

With the lower #PriceCap figure, fixed-rate energy tariffs might appear back on the market, but check if they are right for you

Prices are still unpredictable & signing up for a fixed rate now might mean you miss out if prices fall pic.twitter.com/hhjuPLM7HY

— Ofgem (@ofgem) May 25, 2023

Ofgem CEO Jonathan Brearley has told MPs that a range of options to support customers with energy bills are being considered by the energy sector.

He’s appearing before the Public Accounts Committee this morning to discuss the rescue of Bulb (the largest energy supplier to collapse when wholesale price surged in 2021).

Brearley says options under consideration include companies providing more access to support for vulnerable customers, or putting more customers who fall behind with their bills on affordable repayment plans.

Beyond that, there is a “decision for ministers about what else might be done”, Brearley says (perhaps a social tariff??).

Brearley also points out that this morning’s cut in the price cap, from over £3,280 to £2,074 in July, is a reduction of over £1,200 – which is roughly what people were actually paying on energy bills per year before the surge in prices.

Brearley says that the good news is that wholesale gas prices has been coming down for some time, he hopes that will continue, but cautions that the situation is very hard to predict.

It would only take one significant supply event, or a big change in international demand such as demand from China, for that situation to reverse, Brearley adds.

Updated at 10.57 BST

Calls for ‘social tariff’ for energy bills

Pressure is mounting for a “social tariff” for gas and electricity to be introduced to protect the most financially vulnerable.

Such a social tariff would help lower-income households with their energy bills, which will still be around double their pre-Ukraine war levels even once the Ofgem price cap drops in July to £2,074 per year for a typical household.

The Money Advice Trust, the charity that runs National Debtline and Business Debtline, backs a social tariff.

Joanna Elson CBE, chief executive at the Money Advice Trust, warns that the damage from unaffordable energy bills is already done, adding:

Energy is still significantly more expensive than when this crisis started, and more support is going to be needed.

“We need permanent solutions to this problem – including a social tariff for low income households, and a wider Essentials Guarantee to ensure Universal Credit always covers essential costs.

“It’s also vital that people can access the advice they need. I would urge anyone who is worried about their energy bills to seek free, independent debt advice from a service like National Debtline. Our expert advisers are there to help and talk you through your options.”

Emily Fry, economist at the Resolution Foundation, says there is a strong case for social tariff:

“Expected energy costs for a typical household this year are now on course to be around £2,100 – still up by almost 80 per cent on what families were used to pre-crisis.

“A return to the level of bills households paid pre-crisis isn’t arriving anytime soon. The case for developing more sustainable support with energy bills, such a social tariff for vulnerable households, therefore remains strong.”

<gu-island name="TweetBlockComponent" deferuntil="visible" props="{"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Wholesale gas prices at last feed through to lower energy bills, but consumers still face bills up 80% on pre-crisis levels this year, says RF's @FryEmily in response to today's @ofgem energy price cap announcement: https://t.co/CR9K09DvBp pic.twitter.com/ripVzKF1gU

&mdash; Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) May 25, 2023

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Simon Virley CB, vice chair and head of energy and natural resources at KPMG in the UK, says energy suppliers still need greater clarity about the future direction of government policy for the energy market.

Virley adds:

Serious thought needs to be given to how best deliver sustainable competition in the long-term, whilst protecting those that need it from higher prices.

If that is a move to a social tariff for energy, on what basis would the eligible group be defined, and is there an ongoing role for the price cap in this scenario?”

<gu-island name="TweetBlockComponent" deferuntil="visible" props="{"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

⚡️@ofgem have announced the new energy price cap this morning, which will apply from 1 July.

While it is welcome to see the cap fall, it is still higher than last summer and nearly double historic levels.

We need an energy social tariff to make energy affordable for all. https://t.co/lnKDQOGe3v

&mdash; CIH Policy &amp; Practice (@CIH_Policy) May 25, 2023

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⚡️@ofgem have announced the new energy price cap this morning, which will apply from 1 July.

While it is welcome to see the cap fall, it is still higher than last summer and nearly double historic levels.

We need an energy social tariff to make energy affordable for all. https://t.co/lnKDQOGe3v

— CIH Policy & Practice (@CIH_Policy) May 25, 2023

Sana Yusuf, warm homes campaigner at Friends of the Earth, has warned that struggling households will still struggle to stay warm this winter, even once the price cap falls in July.

Yusuf says:

“Make no mistake, this announcement will make little difference to the millions of people who struggled to stay warm in cold, damp homes this winter. Most government energy bills support has already ended, and people will still be paying double what they were before the energy crisis.

“With the rate of food price inflation now outstripping energy, things will only get tougher for the hardest hit communities that have already suffered so much in the last year. What’s more, analysts say that average energy prices will not fall below pre-pandemic levels until at least the end of the decade. Amid all this, energy firms are still posting record-breaking profits.

“The injustice is breath-taking. People shouldn’t have to wait ten years before they can afford to pay for life’s basics. The government must not waste another summer that could be spent rolling out a street-by-street insulation programme. Not only will this bring down bills quickly and help to protect people from the cold, it’s vital to cut the emissions our homes produce if we’re to meet our climate goals.”

Shapps: Ofgem price cap is positive news in fight against inflation

Back on the Ofgem price cap announement, energy security secretary Grant Shapps says today’s reduction in bills is a ‘major milestone’ in the drive to halve inflation.

Shapps says:

“It’s positive households across the country will see their energy bills fall by around £430 on average from July, marking a major milestone in our determined efforts to halve inflation.

“We’ve spent billions to protect families when prices rose over the winter covering nearly half a typical household’s energy bill – and we’re now seeing costs fall even further with wholesale energy prices down by over two thirds since their peak as we’ve neutralised Putin’s blackmail.

“I’m relentlessly focused on reducing our reliance on foreign fossil fuels and powering-up Britain from Britain to deliver cheaper, cleaner and more secure energy.”

UK borrowing costs soar on fears of higher interest rates

UK government borrowing costs have climbed to the highest level since the aftermath of the mini-budget last year, after inflation failed to fall as much as hoped in April.

The yield, or interest rate, on two-year UK government bonds has jumped to 4.44% this morning, up from 4.35% last night.

That’s the highest since last October, when the markets were spooked by the chaos caused by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s package of unfunded tax cuts.

Benchmark 10-year and 30-year UK government bond prices have also fallen further in value, pushing up their yields.

The selloff comes as the City is gripped by anxiety that Britain’s inflation problem will force interest rates even higher, after the Consumer Prices Index fell by less than expected in April.

CPI dropped to 8.7% last month, higher than the 8.2% that was expected, while core inflation hit a 30-year high.

This is expected to prompt the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates, from 4.5% at present, up towards 5.5% by the end of this year.

Bond yields are also being pushed up by concerns that the US could default in June, if a debt ceiling deal can’t be agreed in time.

Read More: World News | Entertainment News | Celeb News
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