Minnesota’s Special State House Election: A Guide to AP Decision Notes

WASHINGTON – On Tuesday, voters in Minnesota are set to elect a new representative in a predominantly Democratic district, a decision that holds significant weight in the battle for control of the state House post the recent elections.

The special election is taking place in House District 40B, located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul. This election was triggered by a court ruling that deemed Democratic state Rep.-elect Curtis Johnson ineligible due to residency requirements. If Johnson had assumed office, the House would have commenced the 2025 session with a 67-67 tie, anticipated to lead to a power-sharing agreement between the two major parties. However, by choosing not to challenge the court’s decision, Johnson inadvertently granted Republicans a temporary advantage of 67-66, giving them the crucial “organizational majority” necessary to dictate the House’s agenda. Consequently, Democratic lawmakers opted to boycott the chamber.

In the aftermath of these events, both parties eventually struck a power-sharing deal in February. This agreement hinges on the assumption that Democrats will secure victory in the special election on Tuesday, hence restoring the delicate balance with another 67-67 tie in the House.

The nominees for the seat are Democrat David Gottfried, an attorney, and Republican Paul Wikstrom, who also ran in 2024 and challenged Johnson’s residency status in court.

Johnson received 65% of the vote in November, compared with about 35% for Wikstrom. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried the district with 68% of the vote, far better than the 51% she received statewide in her narrow win over Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.

The district is contained entirely within Ramsey County and includes the communities of Roseville and Shoreview. The eight precincts in Roseville made up nearly two-thirds of the district’s total vote in 2024 and posted higher vote percentages for Democratic candidates than the four precincts in Shoreview.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts for state legislative races in Minnesota. A losing candidate may request a publicly funded recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Special election day

The special election for state House District 40B will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in the House District 40B special election.

Who gets to vote?

Any resident in state House District 40B who’s eligible to vote may participate in the special election. Minnesota allows voters to register at the polls.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

There were nearly 28,000 registered voters in House District 40B in both the 2024 and the 2022 general elections. Turnout was about 88% of registered voters in November 2024 and about 75% in November 2022. About 40% of ballots in 2024 were cast before Election Day, compared with about 27% in the 2022 midterm elections.

As of Thursday, more than 1,200 absentee ballots had been cast before the special election day, out of the approximately 3,400 requested.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 presidential election, the AP first reported results in Ramsey County at 9:21 p.m. ET, or 21 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 3:59 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.