UK ‘not out of the woods yet’, Jeremy Hunt warns, after economy dodges recession

From 3h ago

Jeremy Hunt says economy is more resilient than feared

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says has warned that the UK economy is not out of the woods, after narrowly swerving a recession in the last quarter.

Hunt says the economy is showing more resilience than expected, pointing out that the UK’s 4% growth during 2022 is faster than other advaned economies.

He says:

“The fact the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year, as well as avoiding a recession, shows our economy is more resilient than many feared.

“However, we are not out the woods yet, particularly when it comes to inflation.”

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Here’s a video clip of chancellor Jeremy Hunt responding to today’s GDP figures.

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"We're not out of the woods yet."

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says the fact the UK avoided recession in the second half of last year shows the economy has an "underlying resilience".

Latest: https://t.co/YO5218FwXK

📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/HlJHCINL7f

— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 10, 2023

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As flagged earlier, he welcomes the news that the UK has avoided a technical recession and was the fastest growing G7 economy last year (at 4%, compared to 2.1% for the US and Germany’s 1.9% growth).

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Inflation is still much too high, Hunt warns, and causing pain to families across the country. That’s why the government must stick to its plan to half inflation this year, he says.

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[that plan includes not paying inflation-beating pay rises to public sector workers].

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Controlling the cost of living is the Bank of England’s job, of course – and the BoE has already forecast that inflation will fall sharply this year.

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Hunt adds that the UK can be “one of the most prosperous countries in Europe”, if it plays to its strength in science and technology.

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Yesterday, though, the boss of pharmaceuticals giant AstraZeneca said the UK’s “discouraging” tax regime had deterred it from building its new $360m ‘state-of-the-art’ manufacturing plant in Britain. It went to Ireland instead.

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Today’s GDP report is only the first estimate of what happened in the economy in the last quarter of 2022.

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So there’s a risk that the report is revised in coming months, as more data comes in from across the economy, says Debapratim De, senior economist at Deloitte:

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“The UK avoided a recession last year but by the slimmest of margins. Going by recent data revisions, today’s figures could well be revised downwards in a few months, painting a very different picture for growth.

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“Recession or not, UK growth has stagnated for some time now. Despite the marginal improvement in sentiment over the last few weeks, we continue to forecast a contraction in GDP this year.”

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Britain’s economy is stuck in the slow lane and working people are paying the price, says Labour’s shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

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She explains:

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“Today’s figures show us how – despite Britain’s great potential – our economy is stuck in the slow lane,” she said.

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“We can be a leader in the industries of the future that will help grow our economy.”

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“And we must bring in urgent measures to prevent yet more harm from the cost-of-living crisis, using a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants to stop the energy price cap going up in April so that people have more money in their pockets.”

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GDP figures show growth at 0.0%.

Despite Britain’s great potential, our economy is stuck in the slow lane and working people are paying the price.

The government must get a grip of the cost of living crisis and urgently bring forward a proper plan for growth.

— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) February 10, 2023

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The worst is yet to come for the UK economy, with consumer spending is likely to falter this year as the squeeze on household real incomes intensifies, one economist warns.

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Thomas Pugh, economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, predicts that UK GDP will contract in the first half of this year – meaning a recession this year.

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And while it may be milder than the Bank of England feared a few months ago, that would encourage the central bank to raise interest rates again soon to 4.25%, he predicts.

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Pugh says:

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‘The UK has avoided falling into recession by the skin of its teeth, but the worst is yet to come. There are clear signs that the economy has deteriorated over the last few months, GDP fell by 0.5% in December after growing by 0.1% in November.

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The combination of double-digit inflation, the huge rises in interest rates over the last year and less fiscal support means households real disposable incomes are set to shrink sharply in the first half of this year. That will lead to falling consumer spending and a shrinking economy. As a result, we think the recession has just been delayed rather than cancelled.

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‘Of course, narrowly avoiding a recession doesn’t change much on the ground. For businesses operating in the real economy a rise in GDP of 0.1% doesn’t feel much different to a drop in GDP of 0.1%. But a milder recession would mean that unemployment rises more slowly, wage growth stays strong and domestically generated inflation falls at a slower pace than expected.

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This could result in the Bank of England (BoE) raising rates by more than expected.

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There is “anecdotal evidence” to suggest that industrial action had an impact across a wide range of industries in December, the Office for National Statistics says.

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In its December GDP report, the ONS says there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that rail strikes had negatively impacted some businesses.

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Most comments were received from restaurants, caterers, hotels and bars, but other affected units included those engaged in the manufacture of jewellery, the wholesale of food, beauty treatments and the wholesale of wine. Units involved in car hire and in land transport reported an increase in turnover because of the rail strikes.

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There was also anecdotal evidence that postal strikes had negatively impacted some businesses, the statistics body explains:

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The units affected included businesses engaged in financial planning, hospitality, computer repair, and management consulting.

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Other units affected include those involved in the manufacture of metal doors and windows, blankets and jewellery and the wholesale of flowers, watches, garden furniture, computer equipment, optical equipment, motor vehicle parts, and households’ goods.

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Royal Mail staff began a series of days of strike action in early December, in a dispute over pay and conditions.

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The UK has escaped recession by the skin of its teeth, says Jeremy Batstone-Carr, European Strategist at Raymond James Investment Services.

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Batstone-Carr points out that the cost of living crisis will continue to hit households this year:

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Today’s figures confirm that the UK has escaped recession by the skin of its teeth in 2022. With December’s contraction of 0.5%, skirting recession by the slimmest of margins, the UK has achieved a minor economic victory.

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November’s 0.1% growth came as a significant surprise, with England’s footballers providing sufficient cheer to temporarily offset the negative effects of elevated inflation and rising rates. But the footballers have now packed up and come back home, bringing an end to this economic reprieve.

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We are still in for the downturn which so far has been barely kept at bay. It will be shorter and shallower than previously thought, as per the Bank of England’s forecasts. The lagged impact of earlier base rate increases combined with additional policy tightening will ensure it happens.

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However, whether we are officially in recession will not make much difference to most people – it will simply feel like a continuation of the present sluggishness and cost-of-living woes.

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The UK narrowly avoided entering a recession at the end of last year, official figures reveal, after economic growth was flat in the final three months of 2022, my colleague Phillip Inman reports.

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However, the economy did contract in December, as feared – by 0.5% – following a growth figure of 0.1% in November and 0.55% in October.

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Negative growth in the fourth quarter would have signalled recession, after the economy shrank by 0.3% in the third quarter, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics. A technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

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With the cost of living crisis eating into household spending power and many small businesses struggling to stay afloat, few economists expected a strong performance in the run-up to the festive season.

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Here’s the full story:

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says has warned that the UK economy is not out of the woods, after narrowly swerving a recession in the last quarter.

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Hunt says the economy is showing more resilience than expected, pointing out that the UK’s 4% growth during 2022 is faster than other advaned economies.

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He says:

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“The fact the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year, as well as avoiding a recession, shows our economy is more resilient than many feared.

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“However, we are not out the woods yet, particularly when it comes to inflation.”

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Britain’s service sector had a rough December.

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Services sector GDP shrank by 0.8% in December alone, today’s flurry of GDP data shows, which helped to drag the wider economy down by 0.5% in December.

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Strikes and the postponement in Premier League football both hit the economy in December.

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Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), says:

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\n

“The economy contracted sharply in December meaning, overall, there was no growth in the economy over the last three months of 2022.

\n

“In December public services were hit by fewer operations and GP visits, partly due to the impact of strikes, as well as notably lower school attendance. Meanwhile, the break in Premier League football for the World Cup and postal strikes also caused a slowdown.

\n

“However, these falls were partially offset by a strong month for lawyers, growth in car sales and the cold snap increasing energy generation.

\n

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“Across 2022 as a whole, the economy grew 4%, Morgan adds:

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\n

Despite recent squeezes in household incomes, restaurants, bars and travel agents had a strong year.

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“Meanwhile, health and education also began to recover from the effects of the pandemic.”

\n

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Newsflash: The UK has avoided falling into recession at the end of last year.

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The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP was flat in the last quarter of 2022, as economists had expected.

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That follows a 0.2% contraction (revised up from -0.3%) recorded in the third quarter of last year, meaning Britain has avoided the technical definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of contraction in a row.

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But, the economy did contract in December, as feared, by 0.5%.

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The ONS says:

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The first quarterly estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) shows there was no growth in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2022.

Monthly estimates published today show that GDP fell by 0.5% in December 2022, following an unrevised growth of 0.1% in November 2022.

In output terms, the services sector slowed to flat output on the quarter driven by falls in the education, and transport and storage sub-sectors.

Elsewhere, growth of 0.3% in construction was offset by a 0.2% fall in the production sector in Quarter 4 2022.

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Today’s GDP reportwill give a closely watched healthcheck on the UK economy.

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It will estimate how much (if any) economic growth was achieved, based on the value of all the goods and services that were produced, during the last quarter of 2022 and also just in December.

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Gross domestic product is an imperfect measure, though, some economists say. It fails to capture concepts such as well-being, or to distinguish between harmful activities and beneficial ones.

","elementId":"b45094c8-e14e-4e68-9d7b-0a3c31e8d507"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/03/gdp-wellbeing-health-education-environment-joseph-stiglitz","text":"GDP is not a good measure of wellbeing – it’s too materialistic | Joseph Stiglitz","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"a9002817-76d1-444a-bae0-3a70bc8fe54a"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

In 1968, Robert Kennedy gave a famous rebuttal of GDP, saying it measures everything “except that which makes life worthwhile.”

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Kennedy explained, in an excellent, witty speech to the University of Kansas during his presidential run, that:

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\n

It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts Whitman’s rifle and Speck’s knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

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Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.

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It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country.

\n

","elementId":"9e389fe9-760d-4ed2-bbeb-f45768a0cab8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Here’s a clip of the speech, given three months before Kennedy’s assassination:

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Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will host some of the UK’s most prominent industry leaders today as part of a drive to drum up fresh investment to revive the UK’s struggling economy.

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The prime minister, who is expected to attend remotely, and the chancellor will address 200 business executives – including many of the 42 bosses from commerce and industry who sit on the UK Investment Council – with a focus on creating jobs in hi-tech sectors.

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Council members include executives from Airbus, HSBC, Nestlé, Nissan and Hutchison Whampoa, which owns the 3 UK mobile telephone network. The head of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the outgoing Legal & General CEO Sir Nigel Wilson and Liv Garfield, the Severn Trent CEO are also expected to attend.

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The government said the event would build on the success of the inaugural Global Investment Summit in October 2021, which brought together more than 170 chief executives “to showcase the UK’s commitment to green investment ahead of Cop26”.

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More here:

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Good morning. Today we discover if Britain avoided falling into recession at the end of last year.

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The Office for National Statistics will release its first estimate of UK GDP for December, and for the final quarter of 2022, at 7am this morning.

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If the economy shrank in October-December, then the UK will be in a technical recession – defined as two quarters of contraction in a row. UK GDP has already shrunk in the July-September quarter, by 0.3%, so a second quarterly fall in activity would mean a recession.

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But… experts predict that the economy probably stagnated in Q4, with no growth, as the UK was hit by soaring inflation, the energy price squeeze, and strikes on the railways, within the health services, and beyond.

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If GDP is flat, then the recession will have been dodged – for now anyway.

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Samuel Tombs at City firm Pantheon Economics said he thinks that GDP hit 0.0% growth in the last three months of 2022.

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In a research note this week, Tombs explained:

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\n

“Heavy snow in mid-December appears to have hit retail sales and construction output. In addition, the hospitality sector struggled during December’s rail strikes.

\n

“Meanwhile, surveys suggest that manufacturing output continued to fall.”

\n

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We already know that the UK economy grew in October and November, as activity picked up from September when there was a bank holiday for Queen Elizabeth’s funeral.

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For December alone, the UK economy is forecast to have contracted by 0.3%, following 0.1% growth in November which raised hopes a recession could be avoided in 2022.

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Whatever happened at the end of 2022, it’s clear that 2023 will be tough – with some forecasters predicting the UK economy will contract this year.

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However, earlier this week, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said it expects the UK to avoid a protracted recession this year. But, high inflation means it will still “feel like a recession” at least for seven million of the poorest households, NIESR said.

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The IMF predicted last week, though that Britain will be the only major industrialised country to see its economy shrink this year.

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The agenda

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7am GMT: UK GDP report for December, and the fourth quarter of 2022

7am GMT: UK trade balance for December

9.30am GMT: UK business investment figures for Q4 2022

10.30am GMT: Russia’s central bank sets interest rates

3pm GMT: University of Michigan index of US consumer sentiment

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Key events

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