How the US Supreme Court’s abortion pill case will affect the 2024 election


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Good morning to our US readers and good afternoon to those across the pond. Just hours ago the Biden campaign announced that it would raise more than $25mn later today at a star-studded fundraiser featuring former US presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. The Late Show host Stephen Colbert will moderate a conversation with the trio of leaders, and the event will feature appearances by Queen Latifah and Lizzo.

Today’s newsletter covers:

This week the US Supreme Court heard its first abortion-related case since its decision to overturn Roe vs Wade just months before the 2022 midterm elections. So far, it appears that this case, which is over access to the abortion pill, will be less damaging to Republicans come November than the landmark Dobbs decision in 2022.

On Tuesday both conservative and liberal justices expressed scepticism about restricting access to mifepristone pills, which account for more than half of abortions in the US. [Free to read]

Conservative justice Neil Gorsuch said the case “seems like a prime example of turning what could be a small lawsuit into a nationwide legislative assembly on an FDA rule”.

If the court preserves access to the abortion pill, it could prevent further damage to Donald Trump and other Republicans with swing voters who have balked at measures restricting reproductive rights. Otherwise it could deepen the challenge they face, particularly among women, as my colleagues Stefania Palma and James Politi reported.

The court’s decision is likely to land by the end of June, just as Trump and Biden will be hitting the campaign trail.

Protecting access to abortion has proved a winning issue for Democrats, even in deep-red states such as Alabama, where Marilyn Lands won a special election this week with reproductive rights at the centre of her pitch (AP). Although the race for the state legislature had a tiny vote count, the result still supports the idea that reproductive rights remains a potent issue for voters.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon
JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon’s name has for years been floated as a possible US Treasury secretary © Brian Snyder/Reuters

Behind the scenes

Shares in Donald Trump’s social media business jumped in their New York market debut on Tuesday, making the former US president’s stake worth $4.6bn.

But can Trump Media & Technology Group’s share price rise help him secure the funds for his $175mn bond that is due next week? A lock-up agreement prevents the former president from selling his TMTG shares for six months.

While Trump could ask the board to waive the lock-up, selling a stake of his size would be likely to sink the company’s stock price. TMTG now has a market valuation of nearly $12bn, although it has never turned a profit.

The next six months will be a waiting game for the former president — the only thing he can do is hope the share price holds up.

Ultimately, Trump and the executives involved in the Spac are sitting on “a game of musical chairs”, one person told our friends over at the Due Diligence newsletter [available for Premium subscribers]. “At some point the game will end,” the person added.  

Datapoint

We know that the results of the November election are likely to hinge on just a handful of battleground states. But this year, the Biden campaign’s focus seems to be even more concentrated than it was in 2020.

More than 80 per cent of Biden-affiliated funds committed to advertising in March to the end of December are earmarked for just five swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (though it’s worth noting that planned spending may change). For the 2020 election, spending in these states accounted for just 34 per cent of the March-December total.

This week Biden and vice-president Kamala Harris completed their tour of the battleground states with a visit to North Carolina. The campaign has emphasised its focus on the American South.

“To date, Team Biden-Harris has made our earliest ever investment in paid media in Georgia and North Carolina, including a historic $25 million, 16-week TV ad campaign to reach general election voters across key battleground states last year and a 6-week $30 million spring ad buy that kicked off in March,” Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager, wrote in a press release.

Viewpoints

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