Analysts are predicting a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) following the halving event, despite the world’s largest crypto asset plummeting nearly 15% from its latest all-time high of $73,738 over the last six days.
In a March 19 post to X, Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards said it’s “normal” to have a lot of volatility in the months on either side of the Bitcoin halving, speculating that the 12-month period following the event would be the best “risk-reward” timeframe for investors.
Edwards posited there would be a shutdown of inefficient miners in the wake of the Bitcoin halving event — which is slated to occur sometime between April 18-20.
Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,593 on March 20 and is currently trading at $62,690, per CoinGecko data.
Edwards said that while the correction doesn’t appear to be over yet, he remains optimistic for price action in the long term.
“The realities of a much lower supply growth rate + unlocked pent-up Tradfi demand will then kick in and launch 12 months of historically the best risk-reward period for Bitcoin.”
While Edwards looked to the halving as a primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s price action, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju claimed that the Bitcoin market is being fueled by spot Bitcoin ETF flows and not by the halving event.
“After the halving, mining expenses will double, pushing miners to keep certain prices for mining profitability,” Ju said.
“Direct cost per coin will rise to approx $37K, but at $63K, it’s no longer a problem for them,” he added.
Crypto analyst “Rekt Capital” informed their 430,000 followers on X that they were convinced that there was more room for Bitcoin to fall lower.
“Bitcoin will retrace deep enough to convince you that the Bull Market is over. And then it will resume its uptrend.”
The analyst has highlighted that BTC has already entered a “danger zone” where historical pre-halving retraces have begun.
Related: Will the Bitcoin halving bring more institutional investors into crypto?
The price of Bitcoin pulled back roughly 50% in the months before the 2020 halving but the declines were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic in March.
However, it spent the rest of that halving year consolidating around $10,000 before the bull market resumed in 2021.
Looking back further, Bitcoin prices retreated 33% around the time of 2016 halving before making gains at the end of the year and surging into a bull market in 2017 where it peaked at $20,000.
However, 2024 is largely uncharted territory for halvings which previously occurred well below BTC’s relative peak price and did not have the significant institutional backing provided by spot Bitcoin ETFs.
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