The first box office forecast for filmmaker Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is in and bringing welcome news after a rough fall.
If projections are correct, the Marvel Studios and Disney movie should hunt down at least $175 million in its opening over the Nov. 11-13 weekend (and that’s only for North America), according to sources with access to NRG tracking data released Thursday morning. That number could easily grow as the final media push is made.
Coogler’s groundbreaking Black Panther made history when debuting to $202 million domestically in February 2018. The film was the first Marvel tentpole to feature a predominantly Black cast and transformed into a cultural phenomenon on its way to earning more than $1.34 billion at the worldwide box office.
Wherever Wakanda Forever lands, comparisons will be tough as the box office is still finding its way back from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The sequel’s journey to the big screen endured its own tragedy when Chadwick Boseman, who played the titular role of T’Challa/Black Panther in the 2018 film, died in August 2020 after being diagnosed with cancer.
Coogler and co-writer Joe Robert Cole rewrote the script after Marvel decided against recasting the role of T’Challa. Wakanda Forever‘s cast includes Angela Bassett, Lupita Nyong’o, Letitia Wright, Winston Duke, Danai Gurira, Florence Kasumba and Martin Freeman, as well as Marvel newcomer Tenoch Huerta as Namor and Dominique Thorne as the hero Riri Williams.
Generally speaking, superhero movies have proved more immune to COVID-19 than other genres (exceptions include Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World Dominion and horror titles).
Sony and Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home opened to $260.1 million in December 2021, the second-biggest domestic debut of all time behind Marvel and Disney’s Avengers: Endgame ($357.1 million), not adjusted for inflation.
Additional highlights: Marvel/Disney’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness opened to $187.4 million in early May of this year, while Thor: Love and Thunder scored $144.2 million in July. And in March 2022, DC and Warner Bros.’ The Batman flew to $134 million in its launch. (Still, there are no guarantees. DC’s Black Adam, starring Dwayne Johnson in his first live-action superhero role, is expected to launch this weekend in the $60 million range.)
The only other Hollywood event titles that crossed $100 million in their domestic openings since the pandemic struck were Universal’s Jurassic World Dominion ($145 million) and Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7 million).
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