PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
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Best Picture
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
4. Poor Things (Searchlight)
5. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
6. The Holdovers (Focus)
7. Maestro (Netflix)
8. Past Lives (A24)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
10. The Zone of Interest (A24)
Major Threats
11. Society of the Snow (Netflix)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
13. May December (Netflix)
14. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Possibilities
15. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
16. Air (Amazon/MGM)
17. Ferrari (Neon)
18. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
19. Origin (Neon)
Best Director
Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Major Threats
6. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
7. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
8. Celine Song (Past Lives)
9. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
10. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
11. J.A. Bayona (Society of the Snow)
Possibilities
12. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
13. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
14. Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
15. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
16. Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
17. Ava DuVernay (Origin)
Best Actor
Frontrunners
1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
2. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
3. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Major Threats
6. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
9. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
10. Matt Damon (Air)
Possibilities
11. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
12. Franz Rogowski (Passages)
13. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
14. Adam Driver (Ferrari) — podcast
Best Actress
Frontrunners
1. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
5. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Major Threats
6. Annette Bening (Nyad)
7. Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
8. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
9. Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
10. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Possibilities
11. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
12. Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves)
13. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
14. Jessica Chastain (Memory) — podcast
16. Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
5. Charles Melton (May December)
Major Threats
6. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
7. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
8. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
9. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Possibilities
11. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
12. Chris Messina (Air)
13. Peter Sarsgaard (Memory)
14. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunners
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
3. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
4. Julianne Moore (May December) — podcast
5. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast
Major Threats
6. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
7. America Ferrera (Barbie)
8. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
9. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
Possibilities
10. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
11. Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
12. Viola Davis (Air)
13. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
4. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
Major Threats
6. Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Nicolás Casariego, Jaime Marques & Bernat Vilaplana)
7. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
8. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
Possibilities
10. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
11. The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
12. Monster (Yiju Sakamoto)
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)
5. Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
Major Threats
6. May December (Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik)
7. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
8. Air (Alex Convery)
9. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)
Possibilities
10. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
11. Origin (Ava DuVernay)
12. Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
13. Flora and Son (John Carney)
Best International Feature
Frontrunners
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. The Taste of Things (France)
4. Four Daughters (Tunisia)
5. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
Major Threats
6. Perfect Days (Japan)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Can’t Yet Call
Godland (Iceland)
Totem (Mexico)
Io Capitano (Italy)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Amerikatsi (Armenia)
The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners
1. American Symphony (Netflix)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
4. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
5. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
Major Threats
6. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
7. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
9. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Can’t Yet Call
32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Apolonia, Apolonia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (HBO)
In the Rearview (Film Movement)
A Still Small Voice (Abramorama)
Best Animated Feature
Frontrunners
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
4. Nimona (Netflix)
5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
Major Threats
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
8. Leo (Netflix)
9. Wish (Disney)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
Can’t Yet Call
Amazing Maurice (Viva)
Deep Sea (Viva)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Best Cinematography
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
3. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
4. Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
5. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Major Threats
6. Saltburn (Linus Sandgren)
7. The Zone of Interest (Łukasz Żal)
8. The Color Purple (Dan Laustsen)
9. Society of the Snow (Pedro Luque)
10. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)
11. Napoleon (Dariusz Wolski)
12. Past Lives (Shabier Kirchner)
Possibilities
13. May December (Christopher Blauvelt)
14. The Taste of Things (Jonathan Ricquebourg)
15. The Holdovers (Eigil Byrid)
16. All of Us Strangers (Jamie D. Ramsay)
17. Air (Robert Richardson)
18. The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)
19. El Conde (Ed Lachman)
Best Costume Design
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
4. The Color Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)
5. Wonka (Lindy Hemming)
Major Threats
6. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
7. Priscilla (Stacey Battat)
8. Maestro (Mark Bridges)
9. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
10. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)
11. Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret (Ann Roth)
Possibilities
12. Ferrari (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
13. Asteroid City (Milena Canonero)
14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale)
15. Rustin (Toni-Leslie James)
16. Cassandro (María Estela Fernández)
17. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Trish Summerville)
Best Fim Editing
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
3. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
4. Barbie (Nick Houy)
5. Maestro (Michelle Tesoro)
Major Threats
6. Air (William Goldenberg)
7. Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)
8. American Fiction (Hilda Rasula)
9. Past Lives (Keith Fraase)
10. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
11. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts)
Possibilities
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Michael Andrews)
13. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One (Eddie Hamilton)
14. The Color Purple (Jon Poll)
15. The Killer (Kirk Baxter)
16. May December (Affonso Gonçalves)
17. Origin (Spencer Averick)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Frontrunners
1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)
4. Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas)
5. The Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)
Major Threats
6. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
7. Ferrari (Elisabetta Arlotti, Nicolas Iles, Feredrico Martellacci & Leonardo Signoretti)
8. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)
9. Beau Is Afraid (Félix Larivière & Colin Penman)
10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (TBD)
Best Original Score
Frontrunners
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
2. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
4. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
5. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
Major Threats
6. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)
7. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)
8. Elemental (Thomas Newman)
9. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
10. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino)
Possibilities
11. The Color Purple (Kris Bowers)
12. Saltburn (Anthony Willis)
13. The Holdovers (Mark Orton)
14. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
15. American Symphony (Jon Batiste)
Best Original Song
Frontrunners
1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcast
2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
3. “Road to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz — podcast
4. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast
Major Threats
6. “Dance the Night” (Barbie), Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcasts (Lipa & Ronson)
7. “Keep It Movin’” (The Color Purple), Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & Morten Ristorp
8. “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)
9. “High Life” (Flora and Son), John Carney & Gary Clark
10. “Meet In The Middle” from Flora and Son, John Carney, Gary Clark & Eve Hewson
11. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, Scott George
12. “Quiet Eyes” (Past Lives), Zach Dawes & Sharon Von Etten
13. “Am I Dreaming” (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & Leland Wayne
14. “Superpower (I)” (The Color Purple), Terius Gesteelde-Diamant
15. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City, Wes Anderson & Jarvis Cocker
Best Production Design
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
2. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fish & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
5. Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)
Major Threats
6. Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)
7. Asteroid City (Kris Moran & Adam Stockhausen)
8. Wonka (Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales)
9. The Color Purple (Paul D. Austerberry & Larry Dias)
10. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)
11. Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & Sophie Phillips)
12. Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)
Possibilites
13. The Zone of Interest (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)
14. The Taste of Things (Toma Baqueni)
15. Anatomy of a Fall (Cécile Deleu & Emmanuelle Duplay)
16. Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & Tamara Deverell)
17. Air (François Audouy & Jan Pascale)
18. May December (Sam Lisenco & Jess Royal)
19. Origin (Ina Mayhew & Jacqueline Jacobson Scarfo)
20. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Patrick O’Keefe)
Best Sound
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
3. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)
5. Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)
Major Threats
6. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)
7. Napoleon (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & Oliver Tarney)
8. The Killer (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod & Stephen Urata)
9. The Creator (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & Dean Zupancic)
10. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & Chris Munro)
Best Visual Effects
Frontrunners
1. Poor Things
2. Society of the Snow
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One
Major Threats
6. Napoleon
7. Godzilla: Minus One
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Rebel Moon: Part One — A Child of Fire
Best Animated Short
Can’t Yet Call
Boom
Eeva
Humo (Smoke)
I’m Hip
A Kind of Testament
Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Once upon a Studio
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
Pete
27
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Wild Summon
Best Documentary Short
Frontrunners
1. The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV) — podcast (Sheila Nevins)
2. Deciding Vote (The New Yorker)
3. Camp Courage (Netflix)
4. The Barber of Little Rock (The New Yorker)
5. Last Song from Kabul (MTV)
Can’t Yet Call
Bear
Between Earth & Sky (POV)
Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
How We Get Free
If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Oasis (New York Times Op-Docs)
Wings of Dust (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Best Live Action Short
Frontrunners
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix)
2. Strange Way of Life (Sony Classics) — podcast (Pedro Almodóvar)
3. The After (Netflix) — podcast (David Oyelowo)
Can’t Yet Call
The Anne Frank Gift Shop (still seeking U.S. distribution)
An Avocado Pit
Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
Dead Cat
Good Boy
Invincible
Invisible Border
Knight of Fortune (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The One Note Man
Red, White and Blue
The Shepherd
Yellow
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