PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer)
Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer)
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer)
Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer)
C’mon C’mon (A24, Nov. 19, trailer)
A Hero (Amazon, Nov. 12, trailer)
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer)
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer)
The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer)
Possibilities
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer)
The Harder They Fall (Netflix, Nov. 3, trailer)
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer)
Summer of Soul (Searchlight, July 2, trailer)
Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer)
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer)
Cyrano (MGM/UA, Dec. 31, trailer)
Longer Shots
Titane (Neon, Oct. 1, trailer)
The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 31, trailer)
Spencer (Neon/Topic, Nov. 5, trailer)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer)
Red Rocket (A24, Dec. 3, trailer)
Swan Song (Apple, Dec. 17, trailer)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer)
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero) — podcast
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Possibilities
Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God)
Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon)
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) — podcast
Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) — podcast
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci) — podcast
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Longer Shots
Julia Ducournau (Titane)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall)
Sean Baker (Red Rocket) — podcast
Pablo Larraín (Spencer)
Joe Wright (Cyrano)
Sian Heder (CODA)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley) — podcast
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon)
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Possibilities
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
Adam Driver (House of Gucci) — podcast
Nicolas Cage (Pig) — podcast
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Longer Shots
Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter) — podcast
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) — podcast
Filippo Scotti (The Hand of God)
Harvey Keitel (Lansky)
Timothée Chalamet (Dune) — podcast
Jonathan Majors (The Harder They Fall)
Matt Damon (Stillwater)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey)
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Ansel Elgort (West Side Story)
Frankie Faison (The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)
Tim Blake Nelson (Old Henry)
Dan Stevens (I’m Your Man)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast
Possibilities
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast
Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Tessa Thompson (Passing)
Emilia Jones (CODA)
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Longer Shots
Jodie Comer (The Last Duel)
Agathe Rousselle (Titane)
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Haley Bennett (Cyrano)
Halle Berry (Bruised)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Rooney Mara (Nightmare Alley)
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast
Possibilities
Jon Bernthal (King Richard)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)
Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon)
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) — podcast
Longer Shots
Mark Rylance (Don’t Look Up)
Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast
Idris Elba (The Harder They Fall) — podcast
Reed Birney (Mass)
Jason Isaacs (Mass)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
Richard Jenkins (Nightmare Alley)
David Strathairn (Nightmare Alley)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Possibilities
Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon)
Saniyya Sidney (King Richard)
Demi Singleton (King Richard)
Nina Arianda (Being the Ricardos)
Ruth Negga (Passing) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Longer Shots
Dakota Johnson (The Lost Daughter) — podcast
Suzanna Son (Red Rocket)
Marlee Matlin (CODA)
Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Ann Dowd (Mass)
Martha Plimpton (Mass)
Milena Smit (Parallel Mothers)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast
Toni Collette (Nightmare Alley)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Rita Moreno (West Side Story)
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson)
Passing (Rebecca Hall)
Possibilities
House of Gucci (Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen)
CODA (Sian Heder)
Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)
Longer Shots
The Many Saints of Newark (David Chase & Lawrence Konner) — podcast (Chase)
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)
Zola (Janicza Bravo & Jeremy O. Harris)
Compartment No. 6 (Juho Kuosmanen)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
West Side Story (Tony Kushner)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
C’mon Cmon (Mike Mills)
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) — podcast
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)
Possibilities
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader)
Red Rocket (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
Spencer (Steven Knight)
Longer Shots
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
Mass (Fran Kranz)
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen-Love)
Stillwater (Tom McCarthy) — podcast
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Projected Shortlist
Summer of Soul (Searchlight)
Flee (Neon/Participant)
The Rescue (Nat Geo)
The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (David Chase)
Procession (Netflix)
The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman)
Ascension (MTV)
Attica (Showtime)
Found (Netflix)
Becoming Cousteau (Nat Geo)
Julia (Sony Classics)
My Name Is Pauli Murray (Amazon)
Francesco (Discovery+)
Val (Amazon)
The Sparks Brothers (Focus)
Possibilities
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (Focus)
Introducing, Selma Blair (Discovery+)
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple)
Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free (YouTube)
Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It (Roadside)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
45 Days: The Fight for a Nation (self-distributed)
Ailey (Neon)
All Light, Everywhere (Super LTD)
A Cop Movie (Netflix)
Bring Your Own Brigade (CBSN/Paramount)
Citizen Ashe (Magnolia)
Convergence: Courage in a Crisis (Netflix)
Cusp (Showtime)
Fauci (Nat Geo)
Faya Dayi (Janus Films)
Homeroom (Hulu)
In the Same Breath (HBO)
The Last Forest (Gullane)
LFG (HBO Max)
The Lost Leonardo (Sony Classics)
Mayor Pete (Amazon)
Misha and the Wolves (Netflix)
Pray Away (Netflix)
President (Greenwich)
The Real Charlie Chaplin (Showtime)
Rebel Hearts (Discovery+)
Sisters on Track (Netflix)
Stray (Magnolia)
Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street (HBO)
Torn (Nat Geo)
Who We Are (Sony Classics)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Flee (Denmark)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
Titane (France)
Possibilities
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Zatopek (Czech Republic)
Still to See
Brighton 4th (Georgia)
Casablanca Beats (Morocco)
A Cop Movie (Mexico)
Digger (Greece)
Do Not Hesitate (Netherlands)
Drunken Birds (Canada)
Escape from Mogadishu (South Korea)
The Falls (Taiwan)
The Good Boss (Spain)
Great Freedom (Austria)
Hive (Kosovo)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland)
Leave No Traces (Poland)
Let It Be Morning (Israel)
Memoria (Colombia)
Oasis (Serbia)
Olga (Switzerland)
Post Mortem (Hungary)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
Sumergible (Ecuador)
Unclenching the Fist (Russia)
White Building (Cambodia)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Projected Shortlist
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard)
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King (Respect)
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast)
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Kid Cudi & Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall)
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande & Kid Cudi (Don’t Look Up)
“Fire in the Sky” — Anderson .Paak (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings)
“Million to One” — Camila Cabello & Scott Harris (Cinderella)
“My Father’s Daughter” — Glen Hansard, Cat Power & Eddie Vedder (Flag Day)
“Every Letter” — Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] (Cyrano)
“We Love Each Other” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA)
“Home All Summer” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (In the Heights) — podcast
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast
Possibilities
“Believe” — Aloe Blacc & Daniel Pemberton (The Rescue)
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg (Dear Evan Hansen)
Still to See
“Never Gonna Tame You” (The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses) — podcast
“At the Automat” — Mel Brooks (The Automat)
“Secret Sister” — Rufus Wainwright (Rebel Hearts)
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road)
“Blome Swete Lilie Flour” — Daniel Hart (The Green Knight)
“Inside Your Heart” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“Keep the Beat” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“My Own Drum” — Missy Elliott & Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“Columbia, Mi Encanto” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast
“Just for Me” — SZA & Saint JHN (Space Jam: A New Legacy)
“On My Way” — Alexandra Lahey, Sophie Louise Payten & Gabriel Strum (The Mitchells vs. the Machines)
“We Win” — Kirk Franklin, Dominique “Lil Baby” Jones, Cynthia Nunn & Justin Gregory Smith (Space Jam: A New Legacy)
“Call Me Cruella” — Florence + The Machine (Cruella)
“Lead the Way” — Jhene Aiko & James Newton Howard (Raya and the Last Dragon)
“Hourglass” — Mary J. Blige (Mary J. Blige’s My Life) — podcast
“Chasing Dreams” — Goze & Tyler Strickland (Changing the Game)
“Beginning Middle End” — Leah Nobel & Quinn Redmond (To All the Boys: Always and Forever)
“Only One Way to Fly” — Jeremiah Fraites & Wesley Schultz [The Lumineers] (The Starling)
“Tu Draumst [To Dream]” — Tara Nome Doyle & Isobel Waller-Bridge (Munich: The Edge of War)
Source: HollyWood
