El NiÃ±o heralds turbulent start to 2024

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The torrential rain that affected many regions around the globe since the last week of December is expected to be followed by further turbulence through January, as the El Niño weather pattern remains a major influence.

The naturally occurring phenomenon results in a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, affecting wind flows and triggering both floods and drought.

Scientists believe its effects are exacerbated by climate change, with record temperatures in each month since June putting 2023 on track to be the warmest year on record.

Vehicles stuck in flood water in Scotland — The UK’s Met Office issued warnings about further dangerous conditions as the active frontal system fuelled by the jet stream brought heavy rain and gusts throughout the UK © Getty Images

In the UK, the deluge from Storm Henk followed on from Storm Gerrit, causing widespread disruption, as warm sea temperatures in the Atlantic fuelled the jet stream and brought further rain and winds — creating what meteorologists have described as a “storm factory”.

The UK Met Office expert in climate extremes, Emily Wallace, said despite the variability in rainfall patterns from year-to-year, there had been a “marked increase” in winter rainfall in the most recent decade. The top five wettest winters included 2014, 2016 and 2020.

“As the atmosphere warms due to human induced climate change it can hold more moisture, at a rate of around 7 per cent more moisture for every degree of warming,” Wallace said. “On a simple level, this explains why in many regions of the world projections show an increase in precipitation as a consequence of human induced climate change.”

Days of heavy rainfall have exacerbated conditions in already saturated areas in the wake of Storm Henk, which caused widespread damage across the UK. © Getty Images

Saturated ground from successive storms had meant increased run-off from the already sodden earth, Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, noted.

“Storm after storm this autumn and winter has made Britain a sopping wet sponge and there is nowhere for any extra rain to go,” Cloke said.

“After Storm Henk formed late in the Atlantic and hit us on January 2, all that extra water is running straight off the landscape and our rivers are swelling up like the beautiful monsters they can be.”

The powerful Atlantic weather system could give way on the weekend to a colder, drier and more settled period as a high pressure system moved into place, the Met Office said on Friday.

Wet conditions have also affected large parts of the US west coast, with California, Oregon and Washington states hit by gales and high waves last week.

Waves pummeling the northern Californian coast during the Pacific storm on Friday. © AP

The US National Weather Service predicted in its latest long-range outlook that the first month of 2024 would continue to see the effects of El Niño, with lower-than-average snow cover across the country.

“El Niño remains the major climate driver and is expected to be the primary influence on the mid-latitude circulation pattern and associated January temperature and precipitation,” forecasters said.

Houses inundated by the River Danube, west of Budapest © AP

In Europe, flood barriers were erected in the Netherlands in anticipation of rising water levels, after several rivers in neighbouring Germany broke their banks over Christmas.

Regions along the Rhine, Elbe, Lippe, Ruhr and Weser rivers were affected by flooding, with parts of the city of Hamburg submerged.

The Danube also breached its banks in parts of central Budapest, where water levels were at their highest in a decade after heavy rains and snow were followed by melting in the relatively warm weather.

The River Danube burst its banks and flooded the Angelo Rotta quay in downtown Budapest © AP

The unseasonably warm and wet conditions have meant ski areas in Italy and France have experienced sparse snow cover at lower altitudes, while flurries were reported in Austria and Switzerland at the peaks.

The Scandinavian and Baltic regions were among those recording heavier snowfalls than last year at high altitudes, however.

Flooded areas surrounding the River Elbe near Dresden — Flooded areas along the River Elbe near Dresden in Germany © AP

In the southern hemisphere, dozens were feared to have died in eastern areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, where heavy rainfall caused severe flooding and landslides. Flash floods in parts of South Africa also resulted in at least half a dozen deaths.

Torrential rains in the Democratic Republic of Congo claimed dozens of lives © Reuters

Australia’s eastern seaboard has also experienced extensive damage and fatal flooding in the northern state of Queensland, followed further heavy thunderstorms that exacerbated conditions for already devastated areas.

Areas around Cairns in northeastern Australia suffered flood damage as a tropical cyclone formed in the Coral Sea made its way along the coastline. © Queensland Police Service/AFP via Getty Images

In Malaysia and southern Thailand, rural regions were inundated and communities left struggling to recover possessions and find shelter.

Floods caused by intense rainfall have affected tens of thousands of people in Thailand’s deep south, officials said, with some roads and railway lines forced to close. © AFP via Getty Images

The European Earth observation agency Copernicus said in its most recent forecast that the ongoing El Niño event was “likely to peak in the next two months” before it would weaken to neutral conditions.