WASHINGTON – Donald Trump, the real estate developer turned commander in chief, is laying bare his style of diplomacy in the early weeks of his new term: It’s a whole lot like a high-stakes business deal, and his No. 1 goal is to come out of the transaction on top.
The tactics are clear in his brewing trade war with Canada and Mexico, in his approach to Russia’s war on Ukraine and in his selection of the first country he will visit in his second term.
“President Trump approaches diplomacy and engages in a very transactional manner, with economics as the foundation and driving force behind international affairs,” retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the president’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, explained at an event in Washington this past week.
For Trump, it’s about leverage, not friendship; dollars as much as values; and hard power versus soft.
It’s not just a matter of negotiating style. At stake is the post-World War II international order as Trump’s actions raise doubts about American leadership around the globe.
He’s shaping a foreign policy that’s more inward looking and conscious of the bottom line, dismissing American soft-power levers such as the U.S. Agency for International Development as dubious and riddled by waste and suggesting that the United States might not defend fellow NATO members that aren’t meeting defense spending benchmarks set by the alliance.
Politics and presidents to a certain degree are all transactional. But Trump, who helped make himself a household name by burnishing an image as an intrepid real estate dealmaker, is taking it to another level as he navigates an increasingly complicated world.
The Republican president, in his previous life as a real estate titan, saw every deal as one in which there were clear winners and losers. In his return to the White House, he is more demonstrably injecting a what’s-in-it-for-me approach to his dealings with both friend and foe.
Money talks
Edward Frantz, a University of Indianapolis historian who has studied the American presidency, said Trump’s “ledger” approach might not be the most practical way to conduct diplomacy.
Frantz observed that Trump, 78, a baby boomer and football fan, seems inspired in his foreign policymaking by the ethos of legendary pro football coach Vince Lombardi, who famously said, “Winning isn’t everything. It’s the only thing.”
“But diplomacy, especially in a more complicated world, might be more like soccer,” Frantz said. “Sometimes you just need a tie. Sometimes you need to just survive and move on.”
Trump on Thursday told reporters that he has decided to make Saudi Arabia the first overseas visit of his new term because the oil-rich kingdom has agreed to make a huge investment in the United States over the next four years.
“They’ve gotten richer, we’ve all gotten older. So I said, ’I’ll go if you pay a trillion dollars, $1 trillion to American companies,’” Trump said. He also made the kingdom his first overseas stop during his first White House term after the Saudis promised $450 billion in U.S. investment.
Trump acknowledged that the United Kingdom, one of America’s oldest allies, has traditionally been the first stop for U.S. presidents. But money talks.
Who has ‘the cards’ matters to Trump
In his dealings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump has highly focused on who has the leverage. Putin has “the cards” and Zelenskyy does not, Trump has said repeatedly.
Zelenskyy appeared to be making some strides in assuaging Trump after their recent rocky meeting in the Oval Office ended with Trump and Vice President JD Vance criticizing the Ukrainian leader for what they said was insufficient gratitude for the tens of billions of dollars in U.S. assistance provided in the three years since Russia invaded.
Zelenskyy said later that how that meeting went down was “regrettable.” He also made clear he was ready to sign off on a minerals deal with the U.S. — even without the explicit American security guarantees sought by the Ukrainians — that Trump wants.
In his Tuesday address before a joint session of Congress, Trump acknowledged Zelenskyy’s fence-mending efforts. Trump also announced plans to send top advisers to Saudi Arabia this week for talks with Ukrainian officials.
But soon Trump was back to criticizing Zelenskyy, saying he does not have the leverage to keep fighting the war with Russia.
“I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine, and they don’t have the cards,” Trump said. “In terms of getting a final settlement, it may be easier dealing with Russia, which is surprising, because they have all the cards.”
Trump departs from years of US skepticism toward Russia
Trump’s push on Zelenskyy — and pivot toward Moscow — marks a significant departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy toward Russia since the Cold War.
Others before Trump, including Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, have tried resets with Russia, but perhaps never at a time as fraught. Deep skepticism toward Moscow, even in the best moments in the relationship, has been the standard operating posture in both Republican and Democratic administrations.
But Trump, who ran on a promise to quickly end the war, has veered from Democratic President Joe Biden’s approach of making no major decision that could impact Ukraine without Kyiv’s involvement.
At the same time, the new Republican administration has taken steps toward a more cooperative line with Putin, for whom Trump has long shown admiration.
Trump has ordered a pause on U.S. military aid for and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv, halted offensive cyberoperations against Russia by U.S. Cyber Command and disbanded a program aimed at seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs as a means to punish the Kremlin for its invasion.
Keeping an eye on the ledger
Kellogg, who also served in Trump’s first White House, recalled seeing Trump’s “transactional diplomacy approach” early in the first term. Kellogg said that the president’s first question in meetings with foreign leaders was often the same.
“As I found the very first time we were in the Cabinet room when a foreign official came in, the comment was, ’What is the trade imbalance between our two nations?”’ Kellogg recalled, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations event.
The trade ledger has been top of mind for Trump as he argues that for too long America has been played by friends and adversaries, including neighbors Canada and Mexico.
Trump last week announced 25% tariffs on many imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada amid widespread fears of the economic fallout from a broader trade war. He then postponed most of them.
The White House insists the pending tariffs are about stopping the smuggling of fentanyl. Trump has also at times suggested that the tariffs could be resolved by fixing the trade deficit.
The president on Friday was back to excoriating Canada, this time complaining about policies he said are hurting American dairy farmers and the lumber industry. He said he will act soon to even the ledger with Canada through reciprocal tariffs.
“Canada has been ripping us off for years on lumber and on dairy products,” Trump said.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom Trump has taken to belittling as the governor of America’s 51st state, said his country will not be backing down from Trump’s trade war.
The episode has underscored Trump’s willingness to embrace hard power to resolve differences, even if it means testing one of the world’s most durable and amicable alliances.
The center-left Trudeau was so flummoxed by Trump’s move that he found himself quoting the sharply conservative Wall Street Journal editorial page to make the point that this fight was unnecessary.
“It’s not in my habit to agree with the Wall Street Journal,” Trudeau said. “But Donald, they point out that even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do.”
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AP White House correspondent Zeke Miller contributed to this report.
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