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Good morning. The final stage of the Conservative party leadership contest has just started, but some polling from YouGov last night implied it may already be all but over. It suggested that Liz Truss has such a large lead over Rishi Sunak with members that it will be very hard for him to catch up and overtake her. Polls are not always right, of course, and opinions shift as a campaign goes on, but Truss is looking like the probable next prime minister.

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Robert Halfon, the Conservative chair of the Commons education committee, is one of Sunak’s most prominent supporters and this morning he told Sky News that Sunak has time to turn things round. Asked why members did not seem to like Sunak, he replied:

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It’s very early days of the contest. We just finished the MP elections and the former chancellor is going to be going around the country meeting members. I believe, when Rishi Sunak makes his case, more members will come and support him because they know he’s not making promises he can’t keep – and that’s the important thing.

\n

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One factor that may explain Sunak’s relative unpopularity with members is the perception that he stabbed Boris Johnson in the back, but Halfon insisted that accusation was unfair. He said:

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Rishi Sunak was very loyal to the prime minister. He resigned when he just thought things had gone too far. He had differences with the prime minister over the economy but he was there til almost the very end. He was loyal right through the Partygate episode. Another MP went to see him and he refused to countenance any kind of disloyalty to the prime minister.

\n

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Halfon is referring to Andrew Murrison, who wrote an article for the Guardian describing how his attempt to persuade Sunak a few months ago to lead a cabinet uprising against Johnson failed.

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MPs have started their summer recess, and there is very little scheduled on the Westminster agenda for today. But Tory leadership campaigning is continuing, and the news is not going to dry up.

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I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

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If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

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Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com

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Key events

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Good morning. The final stage of the Conservative party leadership contest has just started, but some polling from YouGov last night implied it may already be all but over. It suggested that Liz Truss has such a large lead over Rishi Sunak with members that it will be very hard for him to catch up and overtake her. Polls are not always right, of course, and opinions shift as a campaign goes on, but Truss is looking like the probable next prime minister.

","elementId":"36cf1ab8-b1e3-4b8c-883a-f83cdcbc010b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Robert Halfon, the Conservative chair of the Commons education committee, is one of Sunak’s most prominent supporters and this morning he told Sky News that Sunak has time to turn things round. Asked why members did not seem to like Sunak, he replied:

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It’s very early days of the contest. We just finished the MP elections and the former chancellor is going to be going around the country meeting members. I believe, when Rishi Sunak makes his case, more members will come and support him because they know he’s not making promises he can’t keep – and that’s the important thing.

\n

","elementId":"42076be2-d8fb-4366-aca6-b4904ee822d2"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

One factor that may explain Sunak’s relative unpopularity with members is the perception that he stabbed Boris Johnson in the back, but Halfon insisted that accusation was unfair. He said:

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Rishi Sunak was very loyal to the prime minister. He resigned when he just thought things had gone too far. He had differences with the prime minister over the economy but he was there til almost the very end. He was loyal right through the Partygate episode. Another MP went to see him and he refused to countenance any kind of disloyalty to the prime minister.

\n

","elementId":"14791a8f-6cbc-48a3-95fa-00c25419ace5"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Halfon is referring to Andrew Murrison, who wrote an article for the Guardian describing how his attempt to persuade Sunak a few months ago to lead a cabinet uprising against Johnson failed.

","elementId":"2ef24804-5c66-4a6b-81d9-3a5865b3cb64"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

MPs have started their summer recess, and there is very little scheduled on the Westminster agenda for today. But Tory leadership campaigning is continuing, and the news is not going to dry up.

","elementId":"3cd9d96a-5fa3-43d4-8ad1-957bdb352b8f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

","elementId":"beafd9ea-0e80-4251-b3c4-a522d416f660"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

","elementId":"69311ac7-9475-407d-9913-edeba960073f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com

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Filters BETA

Rishi Sunak claims 20,000 people have signed up to support his campaign for the Tory leadership.

<gu-island name="TweetBlockComponent" deferuntil="visible" props="{"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Over 20,000 people have already joined our campaign and we're only just getting started.

🙋‍♂️Want to volunteer?
🙏 Help with our events?
📱Be a part of our social network?

Join the team 👉https://t.co/3cXn1rFhca pic.twitter.com/R62PF83Kb3

&mdash; Ready For Rishi (@RishiSunak) July 22, 2022

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In his interview with Andrew Marr on LBC last night Rishi Sunak claimed he played a big part in the government’s decision to avoid a return to lockdown last Christmas. He told the programme:

What I did in December was fly back from a government trip I was on overseas and I flew back to this country to stop us sleep-walking into a national lockdown. Because we were hours away from a press conference that was going to lock this country down again because of Omicron, and I came back and fought very hard against the system because I believe that would be the wrong thing for this country, with all the damage it would have done to businesses, to children’s education, to people’s lives.

We were hours away. We were hours away from a national lockdown, but I came back and challenged the system and said this is not right, and we don’t need to do this. And I’m glad I won the argument.

In the Daily Mail (which is vigorously supporting Liz Truss in the Tory leadership contest) Jason Groves reports that Sunak’s version of this story is disputed by other government sources who were involved. Groves writes:

One source said Mr Sunak’s claim was ‘categorically untrue’.

‘He was out in California and planning to stay there on holiday until he started to get criticism from business back home. It is categorically untrue to say we were hours from another lockdown.

‘By the time he got back, the PM had already decided he didn’t want to go beyond Plan B restrictions.’

Two Cabinet sources said that when Mr Johnson asked Mr Sunak for his views on the matter at a crunch meeting, he replied: ‘Oh no, no one wants to hear from me, Prime Minister.’

It is not unusual for accounts of how and when a particular decision got taken in government, and the part played by any single individual, to vary. But this story is damaging because the YouGov polling out yesterday suggested that 40% of Tory members do not view Sunak as honest, and that this is one reason why they like Liz Truss more.

Hamish Mackay

In his Sky News interview Robert Halfon, the Rishi Sunak supporter and Tory chair of the Commons education committee, also insisted that inflation was “the No 1 enemy of the cost of living” and that Sunak, not Liz Truss, had the best policies to bring it down.

Asked about Truss’s claim that Sunak’s high taxes had stifled growth, he replied:

I don’t accept that narrative at all. Yes he did put up corporation tax but don’t forget we spent £400bn during Covid. I mentioned the £80bn of debt interest that we have. We’re £2tn in debt overall. You have to pay some of that money back.

But he also cut taxes. He cut national insurance tax for 70% of households. He also cut business taxes for hospitality, retail and leisure.

Updated at 09.34 BST

Rishi Sunak has time to win over Tory members and is not making promises he can’t keep, leading supporter says

Good morning. The final stage of the Conservative party leadership contest has just started, but some polling from YouGov last night implied it may already be all but over. It suggested that Liz Truss has such a large lead over Rishi Sunak with members that it will be very hard for him to catch up and overtake her. Polls are not always right, of course, and opinions shift as a campaign goes on, but Truss is looking like the probable next prime minister.

Robert Halfon, the Conservative chair of the Commons education committee, is one of Sunak’s most prominent supporters and this morning he told Sky News that Sunak has time to turn things round. Asked why members did not seem to like Sunak, he replied:

It’s very early days of the contest. We just finished the MP elections and the former chancellor is going to be going around the country meeting members. I believe, when Rishi Sunak makes his case, more members will come and support him because they know he’s not making promises he can’t keep – and that’s the important thing.

One factor that may explain Sunak’s relative unpopularity with members is the perception that he stabbed Boris Johnson in the back, but Halfon insisted that accusation was unfair. He said:

Rishi Sunak was very loyal to the prime minister. He resigned when he just thought things had gone too far. He had differences with the prime minister over the economy but he was there til almost the very end. He was loyal right through the Partygate episode. Another MP went to see him and he refused to countenance any kind of disloyalty to the prime minister.

Halfon is referring to Andrew Murrison, who wrote an article for the Guardian describing how his attempt to persuade Sunak a few months ago to lead a cabinet uprising against Johnson failed.

MPs have started their summer recess, and there is very little scheduled on the Westminster agenda for today. But Tory leadership campaigning is continuing, and the news is not going to dry up.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com

Updated at 09.29 BST

Source: Guardian

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